A state of disarray

The Maharashtra by-poll results have thrown the state in a deeper morass

Dilip Chavre Mumbai

Maharashtra has been experiencing a strange political instability. Although the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance is weakening by the day, a cold war between the ruling Congress and National Congress party (NCP) is responsible for the uneasiness that has come to the fore in the two by-elections whose results were announced on February 19. The results are politically significant for a number of reasons. They also reflect on the
prevailing uncertainty. Described as a "failed state", Maharashtra is sinking
deeper into the morass created by the neglect it has been suffering from due to political callousness. 

For the first time, the confidence of Sena rebel and now revenue minister Narayan Rane has been shaken. Rane was feeling himself invincible but this aura is shattered with the Sena winning the prestigious Shrivardhan seat. On the other hand, the Sena has lost Naigaum in its Marathi heartland. This will have a telling effect on the BMC elections which are due a year after, in February 2007.

Politically, what happened in Shrivardhan constituency is quite illustrative of the lack of loyalty among our political parties, irrespective of their ideology (or lack of it).
The Shrivardhan by-election was caused because sitting Sena MLA Shyam Sawant, who was elected from Shrivardhan thrice on Sena ticket, resigned his seat as a staunch follower of Rane. After the victory in Malwan and Ratnagiri district by-elections, the Rane camp was overconfident of repeating the winning trend in Shrivardhan in Raigad district, which adjuncts Ratnagiri district. Shrivardhan has a substantial Muslim population and most of it has devoted its allegiance to AR Antulay who played a crucial role in the outcome of the by-election. Sena candidate Tukaram Surve has won but the credit should go to Antulay who once had described himself as the Sena's ambassador in Delhi.

The NCP was eyeing Shrivardhan as it was worried due to the Rane factor. Thanks to Rane, the Congress has become the single largest party in the assembly by winning four seats from the Sena in the by-elections. Congress has snatched the position from the NCP which felt it would equalise with the Congress by bagging Shrivardhan. But the Congress rejected the idea. Expectedly, the NCP didn't campaign in the constituency, earlier represented by the mercurial Antulay.

The other important factor in the outcome was the support extended by the Peasants and Workers party (PWP) to the Sena. In Raigad district, the PWP is still a force to reckon with. The patriotic appeals made by the Sena played a significant role in the election result. "Don't vote the elements shouting slogans like Pakistan
zindabad," Sena chief Bal Thackeray had thundered through the columns of
Saamna. Ultimately, all put together, the most important factor was the isolation of the Congress in general and of Sawant in particular.

The blame game has started in Shrivardhan. Many reasons are touted for the defeat of Sawant. The most intriguing is the outburst of Antulay against the NCP. Even before campaigning began, Antulay launched a broadside against the NCP, saying that the Congress did not want its support. Naturally, NCP workers were irate and their immediate reaction was to distance from campaigning. NCP worker Mohamed Ali Kauchali entered the fray. Later, it was explained that he was an independent. However, over 10,000 votes garnered by Kauchali certainly have made a difference for Sawant. This has provided a weapon to the Congress to create doubts about the NCP. Already, the two parties sharing power are most uncomfortable in each other's company. Shrivardhan is bound to deepen this uneasiness.