Ungluing the UPA

Speculation is rife in Delhi's political circles regarding the prospects of a snap poll as it is believed that the arrangement between the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Left is beginning to unravel. That it cannot anymore bear the strain caused by USA's insistence that India vote against Iran in Vienna and the shifting goal posts of the civilian nuclear deal that entails separation of nuclear reactors for civilian and military purposes and placing the former under full scope safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency. 
Why is the UPA-Left political honeymoon ending? The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) has made it abundantly clear that UPA's stand on referring Iran to the UN Security Council and the nuclear issue represents a departure from the National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP) to follow an "independent" foreign policy. The Left believes that the UPA is succumbing to US pressures in this regard and has threatened to withdraw its support if it crossed the laxman rekha of the NCMP. Their ire has also been directed against statements of US ambassador to India, David Mulford.
But the CPI (M) has only made threatening noises till now. It has failed to carry out its threats to bring down the UPA. They threatened action on the recent issue of airport modernisation but relented after displaying some interesting footwork. The fundamental question then is: for how long will they carry on this charade of UPA bashing and "seeing reason" while discussing issues with the Prime Minister or his representatives?
To be sure, the CPI(M) has its own compulsions as it faces crucial elections in West Bengal and Kerala — the bulk of their members of Parliament come, in fact, from these states. The party leadership thus may find itself confronted by confused cadres desperately seeking to understand the whys and wherefores of the leadership's angry anti-UPA rhetoric. In both states, the Left have the Congress as the main political opposition party while they support it at the national level to keep out the Bharatiya Janata Party.
CPI (M)'s leadership naturally would find it difficult to mount a strident campaign against the Congress if the cadre has confusions in this regard. Although local factors weigh heavily on the minds of the contestants, political workers of both parties may find it difficult to bring in more conviction into their campaigns if their supporters know that Congress and communists are in cahoots at the national level. This could hurt them in Kerala where the Congress presents a potent challenge but in Bengal they may weather this as the Congress has been mired in existential confusions.
Having said this, the communists may not want to lose control over the central government that they exercise for the first time in their history. What then are their options? Cobble a third front glued by anti-Americanism and opposition to unfettered liberalisation? If the recent declamations of CPI (M) General Secretary Prakash Karat and the exertions of Samajwadi Party (SP) leadership are anything to go by, then the move to form a putative third front is very much on.
And contrary to Karat's statements that this is what they would like to put together in the next Parliament elections, there is evidence of great energy being expended by forces to topple the UPA. The continuation of the Congress-led government is also hurting some of the players in this grand conspiracy personally and they would like it to go at the earliest —  like the SP. To muster support for their cause from other allies they can show how Congress' policies are hurting coalition partners.
The forthcoming assembly elections in some states could also sow seeds of doubts in the minds of even the DMK, hard pressed that it is in Tamil Nadu, to join the third front. Such parties can claim that the support of Congress, which by backing the US against Iran, is driving away minorities; that its policies of privatisation also hurt the working class. All of these are potent enough to unglue the ruling UPA. 
To be sure, the Congress is not unaware of the exertions of these political busybodies. What does not bode well for the party is the disconnect between the perception of the top and middle-level leadership on many of these issues --- most of the latter believe that the Congress would be hurt on the Iran vote. The division within the Congress, not visible, could also undermine the stability of the government. The US President's visit in March thus would provide an indication whether the UPA would soldier on or be bushwhacked.