Nepali democracy and assistance without interference

A hands-off international policy based on a realistic assessment of Nepal’s reality is recommended at this stage

Hari Roka Delhi

All that can be said of India’s diplomacy is that it has not sunk to the depths of European diplomacy in Nepal, which saw various envoys barging into a meeting of the leaders of the seven political parties and trying to thrust a compromise with Gyanendra down their throats: resoundingly defeated by the people of Kathmandu on the streets.

However there are few signs that India has learnt its lessons. The fact that the  parliamentary old-guard is at the helm in Kathmandu, may lead some in the Indian establishment to believe that the old approach, based on outdated assumptions, can be revived. However, these eminent people will do well to recognise that Parliament has already taken drastic measures to reduce the king to a ceremonial role.

The palace cannot be written off yet and the royalists will be biding their time. The most important of these are the army top brass. Though they are legally now answerable to Parliament, at heart their loyalties are with the king. As a result the army will in reality be functioning under dual command. Its ultimate loyalty is to the palace. What needs to be done at the earliest is to ease out the current high army to prevent the palace from making a bid for more power. The army top brass can find clandestine ways to disrupt the peace process, especially given that it has become accustomed to high level impunity since 2002. In 2003 peace talks were brought to an end when the army, without provocation, attacked a peaceful meeting of unarmed Maoist workers in Doramba.

Apart from this, the polity is set on a course of reconciliation with the Maoists. This has to be based on an acceptance of the Maoist demands that have popular support. However, it is likely that the parliamentary parties will accept political reform at present and try to prevent economic and cultural reform and for this they will get a lot of international support from US, EU and India.

Much as they would might not like to do it, so long as the principle of an elected constituent assembly is accepted by both sides, all parties will end up appropriating the basic indisputable aspects of the Maoist agenda, including the need for economic and cultural reform. The three defining and fundamental facts about Nepal are that it has more janjatis (indigenous persons) and dalits than caste Hindus, that almost 90 per cent of its people are dependent on agriculture and that more that 70 per cent of the people live below the poverty line. These three numerically significant factors are sufficient to reformulate the agendas of all parties.

But before this there are other requirements of a more or less technical nature involved in meeting the aspirations of the Nepali people. It is clear that these aspirations will have to be met through the constituent assembly. But establishing the constituent assembly will require a clear understanding how to best ensure deep and wide representation of the people in the assembly and the degree of control they have over the proceedings.