Tectonic shift in the Muslim vote

The recently-concluded assembly elections show that the Congress is rapidly losing its traditional constituency

Naveen Surabaneni Delhi

The Congress has lost a considerable section of its traditional constituency, a fact clearly brought out by the recentlyconcluded assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Pondichery, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. The ramifications extend to the national canvas. The shift in Muslim community’s voting preference indicates a reversal of trend since the Lok Sabha 2004, where post-poll investigations indicated that the Congress Party’s support among the Muslim community had increased in the 2004 after a long gap since the 1992 Babri Masjid demolition. What has brought about this shift?
It is first necessary to understand and map the shift in the Muslim vote. Two states, Assam with 30 per cent and Kerala with 25 per cent Muslim population present an excellent opportunity to understand the extent of shift in Muslim vote. In Assam, six districts – Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Nagaon, Karimganj and Hailaknadi – have more than 50 per cent Muslim population. These districts account for 38 of the total 126 assembly constituencies in the state. In addition four other districts have sizable Muslim population ranging from 35 – 45 per cent. A historic analysis of performance of the Congress Party in Assam shows that the party did well in these areas. That is how Congress Party in Assam is said to be identified more as party for “Ali” (Muslim) and “Coolie” (tea garden workers). Similarly in Kerala, Malapuram has 69 per cent Muslim population and some districts like Kozhikode, Kasargod, Kannur, Wayanad and Pallakad, the Muslim population is in the range of 27–35 percent. The analysis decline in the vote share in these constituencies is much more than the overall decline in the vote share across the state. In Assam the decline in the vote share is more or less in line with the state average because of the sprinkling of Muslim voters across the districts. In only 8 of 23 districts, the Muslim vote is below the 10 percentage point. In Assam, the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) which is collection of small Muslim organisations has won 10 seats. In Kerala, the UDF alliance partner Indian United Muslim League (IUML) had won only 7 seats down from 16 seats in 2002. This is for the first time the IUML has less than 10 seats in the assembly. Left parties managed to win some of the stronghold of IUML which the party never lost since 1980s like Majeswar, Koduvally, Tirur,Kuttipuram and Mannarkkad. The defining political message in the verdict is that the Muslim community in the Malabar region has for the first time changed its traditional stand of voting for the Indian Union Muslim League.
The shift in the Muslim vote from the Congress Party could be due to multiple reasons. Let us look at Assam first. In Assam one of the reasons for the shift in the Muslim vote is due to Supreme Court striking down the Illegal Immigrants Detection Tribunal Act (IMDT). The Supreme Court had observed that the Act was discriminatory and directed the Centre to treat the influx of Bangladeshi as an “act of aggression”. This provided the political space for the small Muslim based organisations to get together in a political formation under the banner of the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF). In Kerala and West Bengal there was no such major emotive issue. So what then explains the shift in Muslim vote in Kerala and West Bengal? The Communist Party of India (Marxist), CPI-M in Kerala and West Bengal had made the foreign policy of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre especially the decision to vote against Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the pro-US foreign policy, a core theme in their campaign. The US President George Bush’s visit to India presented an excellent opportunity for the Left parties to channelise Muslim community anger against his policies and strike an emotion chord. This appears to have clearly helped the Left to gain the support of the community. Clearly the extra-territorial issue had considerable influence on the voting preference of the Muslim voters. Is the Muslim community in the country more concerned about the extraterritorial issues rather than their socio-economic condition?

In the past one of the reasons offered for the Muslim’s support to the Congress Party was the threat of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in power at the Centre. With NDA no longer in power at the Centre, BJP hardly a strong contender in the states which went to the polls and the decline in the popular perception about the BJP due to frequent internal problems and branching out of leaders like Uma Bharti, the Muslim community felt assured enough to look for option outside the BJP and the Congress Party.
This shift in Muslim vote could have major political impact across the country. The Congress Party’s attempt to revive itself in politically crucial states of Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar could receive a setback. Muslims constitute 18.5 per cent of total population in UP and 16.53 in Bihar. Unless the Muslim community solidly backs the Congress Party its chances of revival in UP and Bihar look bleak. Further, the success of AUDF could result in similar experiments in other states. Already in Uttar Pradesh there are moves to form a Peoples Democratic Front (PDF) to consolidate the Muslim vote. This would in turn put pressure on the Muslim leaders who are presently in the mainstream parties to switch over to these parties. The conservative Muslim leaders in mainstream parties would then get marginalised. Moreover, the shift in Muslim vote away from the Congress Party would benefit the smaller state parties which could in turn accelerate the possibility of putting together a Third Front. Additionally, with emergence of parties like AUDF in Assam and PDF in Uttar Pradesh there is possibility of backlash among the majority community which could aid the revival of BJP. Finally this could also result some unease within the Congress Party. The impression that Manmohan Singh is more a manager rather a political prime minister could gain further ground.
Overall it would be interesting to watch as to how the Congress Party responds to this new unfolding scenario especially with Uttar Pradesh scheduled to go to polls in early 2007.

Writer is Director, Centre for Media Studies, Delhi