Killing Mulayam softly

The Jan Morcha alliance and the VP Singh factor can turn the murky chess game of electoral politics upside down in UP. And Mulayam Singh Yadav is not smiling
Pradeep Kapoor Lucknow
         
There is no doubt that the Jan Morcha (JM) alliance led by former prime minister VP Singh will play a major role in the installation of the next government in UP after the forthcoming assembly elections. The extent to which the Samajwadi Party (SP) and its supremo chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav are terribly jittery with the emergence of the JM alliance on the political scene is evident from the organised onslaught against VP Singh by sundry SP leaders. The recent attack by the SP cadre on VP Singh’s son Ajay Kumar’s multiplex in Allahabad is part of the visible frustration stalking the ruling party in Lucknow. And ironically, with his rallies drawing big support and the Dadri issue boomeranging on the SP, the direct political attack has only brought the smile back on the ailing Raja of Manda’s face.

The big irony is that Mulayam Singh and his loyalists are no longer criticising arch rival Mayawati or the BJP, but are concentrating
on taking on VP Singh and his JM alliance. So much so, senior SP leader Beni Parsad Verma branded VP Singh as a ‘senile old man’. There was also a critical mention in the SP’s state executive meet when some leaders said that he has been resurrected from a ‘rajnitik kuredaan’ (dustbin of politics). In fact, there has been a chorus of accusatory howls emerging from a panicky SP camp accusing VP Singh of all the ills plaguing the state and that he ignored the interests of the backward castes and Muslims when he was the prime minister. They also accuse him of being an agent of the Congress.

With the emergence of the JM, the SP is aware of a potential threat to its traditional vote bank of backwards and Muslims which helped Mulayam Singh become chief minister for the third time. VP Singh is widely considered as the messiah of backward castes and classes for his government's decision to implement the Mandal Commission report. He also has a committed Muslim support-base for his unflinching position against the BJP’s communal politics and people still remember that it was the BJP which withdrew its outside support to his government in Delhi. Mulayam Singh is aware that VP Singh commands respect among the Muslims for his role in the Babri Masjid and for blocking LK Advani’s violent rath yatra by getting him arrested by Laloo Prasad in Bihar.

Political observers believe that the reason behind the success of VP Singh
is his good public image, political and social work among backwards, Muslims and slum-dwellers, and recent inroads among farmers across the hinterland. People are fed up with Mulayam Singh for blatantly promoting his own caste and family members and giving a free hand to criminal elements who often openly flout the law. Besides Amar Singh’s reputation and conduct, his tapes’ scandal and his open proximity to some industrialists, has not exactly helped the SP’s political image of being a ‘socialist’ party. In that sense, Raj Babbar’s slogan, that it’s time to liberate UP from the clutches of fixers and middlemen, has actually clicked in the popular imagination.

The BSP will not be impacted by the rise of the JM, and the BJP is not even in the straight SP-BSP fight. But the signs are all there of a political build-up which can badly damage the SP’s credibility and constituency. The manner in which small political parties with committed support-base in limited areas are joining hands with the JM has put the frown back on the SP supremo’s eternally tired face. Disgusted with Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh’s dubious politics and controversial public image, and Mayawati’s high-strung arrogance, OBCs and smaller castes like Rajbhar, Bhinds, Kashyaps, even Dalits and others, have solidly aligned behind VP Singh. Individuals like Kumar Brijendra Pratap Singh, SP MLA, have openly criticised Mulayam Singh; this is a clear signal that silent dissenters might choose to leave the SP ship as it starts sinking.

Raj Babbar is backed by various sections because of his clean image, reputation for hard work (as in Agra, his constituency, which he has nursed) and the capacity to carry everybody along. It was his strategic mobilisation that led to the huge mass rally in Lucknow on May 30.

Smaller parties like the National Loktantrik Party of Dr Masood, CPI-ML (Liberation), CPI, Rashtriya Krantikari  Samajwadi Party, Tarai Kranti Party, Rashtravadi Communist Party, whose leader Kaushal Kishore is MLA from Malihabad in Lucknow, Lok Janshakti of Ram Vilas Paswan and Indian Justice Party of Udit Raj, have set up the battle against the SP government. Even Laloo Prasad has extended support against his old Yadav rival and he can make a crucial difference in the UP constituencies bordering Bihar.

Speaking to <Hardnews>, Kaushal Kishore said that people were drawn towards the JM alliance as it has taken up issues concerning the poor, weavers, oppressed classes, farmers and Muslims. The struggle against the Dadri power plant of Anil Ambani is basically to protect the interests of thousands of farmers and fight against the <”dalal sanskriti>” (culture of pimping) being promoted by Mulayam Singh, he said. Significantly, VP Singh has addressed several public meetings on the farmers’ issue and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) President Ajit Singh has shared the dais with him. According to informed sources, initially Ajit Singh was reluctant to join hands, but the manner in which the farmers of western UP have come out in support on the Dadri issue, the RLD was under pressure to renegotiate with VP Singh for a broader alliance of non-BJP and non-SP parties. In any case, there are persistent rumours that Ajit Singh is being offered a minister’s chair in the UPA government; the fact is, he always keeps his cards close, he is known to be unreliable, and can switch sides anytime.

Pramod Tewari, Leader of the Congress Legislature Party in UP, told <Hardnews> that the JM alliance would play a catalytic role in dislodging the SP regime. He believes that the alliance will definitely damage the prospects of SP candidates all over the state. Tewari is optimistic about a possible tie-up of the Congress with the JM.

However, BJP leader Lalji Tondon feels that the JM alliance will not be effective against the SP or the BJP, due to the lack of organisational support. Political analysts argue that the JD(U) and Apna Dal led by Dr Sonelal Patel might finally join the JM alliance, and so will the NCP of Sharad Pawar. So the possibility of the Jan Morcha emerging as a rallying point for all anti-Mulayam forces can’t be ruled out.

However, the presence of Sakshi Maharaj, MP (Rashtriya Kranti Party), who played a major role in the Babri Masjid demolition, in the JM alliance, and Raj Babbar’s mysterious meeting at BJP MLC Kusum Rai's residence with Kalyan Singh, has unnerved secular parties in the alliance. It has been pointed out by alliance leaders that while no aspersions can be cast on the secular credentials of VP Singh and Raj Babbar, they should keep away from elements with a dubious communal past. As for seat-sharing, Raj Babbar has made it clear that all the parties will get tickets according to their mass base and strength.

Indeed, the wheels are turning full circle in UP. The Jan Morcha alliance and the VP factor is becoming crucial in the murky chess game of electoral politics in this big and backward state. Old-timers know VP Singh can turn out to be a formidable enemy. And surely, Mulayam Singh is an old warhorse – he knows too well which side the wind is blowing.