Murder in a melting pot

The assassination of Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel has created waves of anger and pain among the Christians in Lebanon. Will it lead to a bloody civil war in an already ravaged landscape?

Harsh Dobhal Delhi

Still reeling under massive destruction caused by US-supplied weaponry, Lebanon is once again on the brink of yet another bloody civil war. Never before has this tiny and beautiful country witnessed such an intense level of political crisis, sharp polarisation and political mobilisation on sectarian lines. Seldom has this country looked more fragile.

The assassination of Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel has created waves of anger against Syria, widely blamed to be behind the killing, and triggered angry and massive protests on the streets in Beirut. Gemayel, a Christian, was shot dead in broad daylight in a Christian suburb of Beirut. The murder has pitched the West-backed Lebanese government against Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian groups, always

tussling for control of this country. Syria and Iran have been backing the Hezbollah, which has become a strong political and military factor in the fractured politics of Lebanon.

The assassination has taken place in the backdrop of the US-backed Prime Minister Fuhad Siniora’s move to give its final approval to an international tribunal created by the UN for the trial of suspects in the killing of former prime

minister, Rafik Hariri, in February 2005. Syria was blamed for that killing, too. The UN commission, already looking into the murder of Hariri, will take on the inquiry into Gemayel’s killing, who is the fifth anti-Syrian Lebanese politician to be killed in the last two years. His murder has acutely intensified the prevailing political crisis.

As many as six pro-Syrian cabinet members, all Shiites, have resigned from Siniora’s cabinet. In the event of death or resignation of two more ministers, the government will be brought down, something Hezbollah till now has been trying hard to do by means of street protests and a concerted campaign.

Predictably, there is a huge George Bush-led international outcry over Gemayel’s murder. Barely months after aiding Israel to bomb Siniora’s Lebanon for 34 days, killing over a thousand civilians and maiming many more, Bush has promised “to support the Siniora government and its democracy”. In his typical doublespeak, Bush has pledged support for “Lebanese independence” from what he described the “encroachments of Iran and Syria”. His ‘war-crime ally’, Tony Blair, squarely blamed for delaying a ceasefire that could have saved hundreds of lives, contributed his bit, “We need to do everything we can to protect democracy in Lebanon.”

While Lebanon is painfully trying to rebuild its infrastructure as thousands of wounded are still languishing in hospitals, it has been plunged into another crisis, this time a possible civil war aided by vested interests. While most Western observers, as also Lebanese, have blamed Damascus for the latest killing, a close analysis reveals that neither the Hezbollah nor Syria or Iran stand to gain out of the killing.

The blame on Syria is based on the fact that Christian Phalangists, a political group led by the Gemayel family for decades, is Syria’s main enemy in Lebanon. And that the UN tribunal to try the killers of Hariri would most likely implicate Syrian officials for the murder. The Hezbollah, which has been staging anti-government protests to bring down the cabinet, is now expected to probably put off its campaign, thereby going on the backfoot soon after riding a political high after its dogged resistance during the Israeli assault. One wonders, therefore, how would this killing serve Syria’s or Hezbollah’s interests?