Not the will of the junta

With the Thai military-installed government not exactly proving to be up to the mark, what are the chances of former PM Thaksin returning?

Pranay Sharma Bangkok

Thailand Prime Minister General Surayud Chulanont had once remarked, "I am convinced the army should not get involved in politics." That was 15 years ago. At that time, Surayud was the commander of the Special Warfare Force. In subsequent years, he moved up the military ladder to become the chief of the Thai army and later its supreme commander. On his retirement from the army he was made a member of the King's Privy Council.

Today, as head of the military-installed interim government, Surayud has a different perspective of both the army and politics.

Though people in Thailand are no stranger to the army picking up the reigns of running the country, questions are being asked whether Surayud is tough enough to do the job. Part of the problem lies in Surayud's self-image. He comes from a family of military leaders, but his father, Lt Colonel Phayom Chulanont, had defected from the Royal Thai Army to join the communists and went on to become the Chief of Staff of the People's Liberation Army of Thailand.

His father's defection did not affect Surayud's career in the Thai Royal Army. But it was apparent that he always carried that chip on his shoulder. As a young officer he conducted operations against forces of the Communist Party of Thailand when his father was one of its key leaders. He had even told his son at one time that they should help each other "redeem the tarnished family name of Chulanont" so that the people of Thailand could look up to it.

But Surayud and members of the Council of National Security—as the junta in Thailand calls itself, are under mounting pressure. The military rulers who staged a coup in September last year have little to show by way of progress. The popularity rating of the junta that was well above 60 per cent at the time of the coup has now dropped to the 20s, and is dropping further with each passing week.

"Security and social unity" was the main plank that coup leader General Sonthi Boonyartkalin had cited when he appointed Surayud as prime minister of the new regime on October 1 last year. But the policies of the government on all key issues have been left hanging so frequently that neither the people of Thailand nor foreign investors are sure of the direction the country is heading under the junta.

Its refusal to share avian flu samples with the World Health Organisation, the decision to impose capital controls on foreign investment and limiting shareholding of foreign investors in telecommunication firms have raised concerns among Thailand's trade and business partners. The situation has been compounded further with the government’s inability to improve the law and order situation, particularly in tackling insurgency in the southern part of the country.

On Chinese New Year's Day this year, there were 38 bomb attacks, 26 cases of arson and seven ambushes. Predictably, after the incident the popularity rating of the military regime plummeted to 12.5 per cent among the people of Bangkok.

Surayud, a believer of Feng Shui, responded by having the government house re-landscaped and getting pictures of all former prime ministers from the building removed. In between, he also had key cabinet portfolios changed and threatened to resign from his post in the wake of his reported differences with General Sonthi.

The broad contours of the new constitution that the junta presented to the people on April 19, replacing the earlier one of 1997, has raised many questions on how democratic Thailand would be in the coming days.