Not the will of the junta

With the Thai military-installed government not exactly proving to be up to the mark, what are the chances of former PM Thaksin returning?

Pranay Sharma Bangkok

Thailand Prime Minister General Surayud Chulanont had once remarked, "I am convinced the army should not get involved in politics." That was 15 years ago. At that time, Surayud was the commander of the Special Warfare Force. In subsequent years, he moved up the military ladder to become the chief of the Thai army and later its supreme commander. On his retirement from the army he was made a member of the King's Privy Council.

Today, as head of the military-installed interim government, Surayud has a different perspective of both the army and politics.

Though people in Thailand are no stranger to the army picking up the reigns of running the country, questions are being asked whether Surayud is tough enough to do the job. Part of the problem lies in Surayud's self-image. He comes from a family of military leaders, but his father, Lt Colonel Phayom Chulanont, had defected from the Royal Thai Army to join the communists and went on to become the Chief of Staff of the People's Liberation Army of Thailand.

His father's defection did not affect Surayud's career in the Thai Royal Army. But it was apparent that he always carried that chip on his shoulder. As a young officer he conducted operations against forces of the Communist Party of Thailand when his father was one of its key leaders. He had even told his son at one time that they should help each other "redeem the tarnished family name of Chulanont" so that the people of Thailand could look up to it.

But Surayud and members of the Council of National Security—as the junta in Thailand calls itself, are under mounting pressure. The military rulers who staged a coup in September last year have little to show by way of progress. The popularity rating of the junta that was well above 60 per cent at the time of the coup has now dropped to the 20s, and is dropping further with each passing week.

"Security and social unity" was the main plank that coup leader General Sonthi Boonyartkalin had cited when he appointed Surayud as prime minister of the new regime on October 1 last year. But the policies of the government on all key issues have been left hanging so frequently that neither the people of Thailand nor foreign investors are sure of the direction the country is heading under the junta.

Its refusal to share avian flu samples with the World Health Organisation, the decision to impose capital controls on foreign investment and limiting shareholding of foreign investors in telecommunication firms have raised concerns among Thailand's trade and business partners. The situation has been compounded further with the government’s inability to improve the law and order situation, particularly in tackling insurgency in the southern part of the country.

On Chinese New Year's Day this year, there were 38 bomb attacks, 26 cases of arson and seven ambushes. Predictably, after the incident the popularity rating of the military regime plummeted to 12.5 per cent among the people of Bangkok.

Surayud, a believer of Feng Shui, responded by having the government house re-landscaped and getting pictures of all former prime ministers from the building removed. In between, he also had key cabinet portfolios changed and threatened to resign from his post in the wake of his reported differences with General Sonthi.

The broad contours of the new constitution that the junta presented to the people on April 19, replacing the earlier one of 1997, has raised many questions on how democratic Thailand would be in the coming days.

Surayud and the other members of the Council for National Security have promised to hold elections in the country by the end of the year. But his government has to take a much bigger decision later this month.

The Constitution Tribunal on May 30—popularly dubbed the "Judgment Day" by the Thai media—would rule whether or not to dissolve the country's two largest political parties, the Thai Rak Thai and the Democrat, for alleged election frauds.

Thai Rak Thai is ousted prime minister Thaksin's party. Many political commentators in the country see the move as an attempt to block Thaksin's possible re-entry into the country and participation in the year-end election. Thaksin, who was in New York attending the UN General Assembly at the time of the September coup, has not returned to Thailand since.

But the ousted prime minister has faced the heat from the Constitution Tribunal even earlier. On August 3, 2001, a similar charge was brought against Thaksin that could have barred him from politics for five years. On that day, his supporters surrounded the court's compound and launched a countrywide signature campaign to prevent Thaksin from being debarred.

It was a close shave for Thaksin. The 8 to 7 ruling in his favour by the tribunal judges saved him and allowed Thaksin to become prime minister for the next five years. But one of the members of the tribunal confessed later that it was political exigency rather than the merit of the case that allowed the verdict in favour of Thaksin. Many of the Tribunal members had then feared that barring Thaksin from politics could lead to violence and protests in different parts of the country.

The dip in the junta's popularity rating has not necessarily gone in Thaksin's favour. The situation now is different from the one witnessed in 2001. Thaksin, who had won a landslide victory in the elections just seven months before, had evoked hope and confidence among the people of Thailand to bring the country out of the economic crisis of the late 1990s.

When he was ousted from power last year, Thaksin had already become unpopular and people in Thailand and outside were holding him responsible for the months of political stalemate that preceded the coup.

Though his supporters are getting more vocal with each passing day, it is difficult to predict whether this would mean the tribunal would rule in favour of Thai Rak Thai. A decision not to ban either Thai Rak Thai or the Democrat could also mean a signal for the second line of leaders to fall in line with the military rulers.

If Thai Rak Thai is not dissolved, it would also put the cliché to test on the kind of hold and influence Thaksin continues to have over his cadres. If he manages to keep his flock together, a situation might then evolve for his early return to Thailand and contest the December election. If he wins, that could spell trouble for Surayud and other key members of the Council for National Security.

Interestingly, in all this the person whose name has not been dragged in the controversy is King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Although everybody knows that without his express command and blessings neither the coup nor appointment of Surayud or the installation of the CNS would have been possible.

King Bhumibol is not only the world's longest serving head of state, but he is also the longest serving monarch in Thai history. He has a sharp mind and an acute political sense. The fact that he has been in his position for so long is partly because of his immense popularity among the Thais, who regard him as a demi-god, and the immense power he wields under the constitution of the country.

Any criticism of the King or his action is banned in Thailand and falls under lesse magiste or "disrespect" to     the monarch. His role in the political crises  in Thailand in the past has never been questioned nor would it be in the  coming months.

If Thaksin manages to come back to power in the near future, his ire would be directed against Surayud, General Sonthi and others in the Council of National Security. But the closest that he could come in directing his attack to the Palace would perhaps be on the King's Privy Council. And as the President of the Privy Council, Prem Tinsulanonda would then be the fall guy.