Not that cake, a sandwich for Maya

With BSP's reverse osmosis of a 'sandwich coalition' one thing is clear: UP might witness an incredible social metamorphosis in the days to come

AK Verma Lucknow

The stunning verdict of the UP electorate on May 11, 2007, sent all UP watchers, political pundits and psephologists into hushed silence. Voters proved everybody wrong reminding us of our limitation in anticipating the sovereign moves. The much hyped up prophecies of a divided electorate, hung assembly and coalition government was pushed into history signalling the arrival of 'new politics' in the state. The people delivered to all parties the first lesson in politics: politics must unilaterally establish law and order, and focus on peoples' welfare and societal development.

Mayawati won the elections hands down, but did Mulayam Singh Yadav lose? In the heat of victory and defeat, this question may not be raised by many, but will it be prudent to ignore it? The reason is that though the numbers did not favour Mulayam Singh, but, actually, his vote share remained intact at the same level as in 2002. Surprisingly, out of 70 districts in which the 403 assembly constituencies are spread, the Samajwadi Party (SP) lost votes only in 32 districts, whereas in 38 districts its vote share went up. That showed that even the SP took advantage of the 'reverse social osmosis' (Economic and Political Weekly (EPW): March 10, 2007, pp. 817-820). And that is the reason that the BSP cannot write off Mulayam Singh.

Moreover, the Bahujan Samaj Party's (BSP) vote share of 30.46 per cent cannot be a matter of complacence for the party because in earlier assembly elections, despite the fact that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) got a much higher vote share, its seats tally was much below the threshold (1993: 33.3 per cent: 177 seats; 1996: 33.9 per cent: 175 seats). It is simply the strange electoral arithmetic of the first-past-the-post system in multi-cornered contests which favoured the BSP.

The people voted the BSP to absolute majority cutting to size all political parties. The Congress had hoped to be an inevitable component of the new government. But the BSP's social coalition experiment through 'reverse social osmosis' made redundant any post poll political coalition. In the BSP's basket there are four major social denominations: Brahmins, OBCs, Dalits and Muslims. In this, the Brahmin-Dalit coalition has been quite enigmatic. For this, Mayawati attempted social metamorphosis (through 'Brahmin Jodo Sammelans' and 'Bhaichara Committees') and synchronised that with philosophical change (from Bahujan Samaj to Sarvajan Samaj). She used a long-term strategy for inclusive politics and applied smart and mature tactics to humble her opponents.

The first signal was given when she stayed away from the municipal elections in UP a few months back just to keep her flock together, and created a false sense of victory and revival in the BJP and the Congress. Most analysts anticipated the BJP's recovery in this backdrop, though,  on deeper analysis, it was clear that in the municipal polls, the BJP was actually a loser at the  municipal council and nagar panchayat level. Whatever gains it had at the corporation level was courtesy the BSP (EPW: December 23, 2006, pp. 5218-5221).

But the question which is being asked in many circles is, will Mayawati be able to retain and further expand her social coalition? This is a natural anxiety as coming together of the two disconnected social groups for power-sharing may be intelligible; but there are more serious issues than this.

Will the Brahmins with their socio-cultural superiority adapt to live as equals with their new Dalit friends? Will they not contrive to surreptitiously browbeat Dalits while taking important policy decisions and formulating concrete programmes? It has to be watched now— how comfortable are Dalits in the company of Brahmins?  Are they able to feel as equals? Or, are they nourishing silent resentment but holding on because of their loyalty to 'behenji'?

All this has serious implications for the entire socio-economic structure at the grassroots. While the Brahmin-Dalit coalition may provide a model for social cohesion, it would be closely watched for how it stands vis-à-vis the dominant land-owning Yadavs, rich OBCs, Thakurs and Muslims? One thing is sure, with Brahmins on their side, the exploitation of Dalits at the hands of upper castes, peasant OBCs and dominant Muslims will be greatly reduced. Not only that, Dalits may also undergo the process of sanskritisation. With BSP's 'sandwich coalition' (top-bottom coalition), one thing is clear: UP is going to have social metamorphosis in days to come. 

Mayawati has beaten the Congress on their turf; she has successfully revived the old 'rainbow coalition' of the Congress. The only difference is in the inner dynamics of the two: the Congress coalition was spearheaded by the Brahmins and upper castes and all the rest were made to follow. The BSP brand coalition is spearheaded by a Dalit-Bahmin duo (Mayawati and Satish Mishra) with a Muslim tag (Naseemuddin). So the wider social coalition is truly reflected at the top too.

This is a formidable electoral chemistry. Because of the nature of this social coalition, it may not be possible for other political players to repeat the 'BSP model of social coalition', unless something goes terribly wrong with the BSP. The BSP model may branch off into 'vertical social coalition and horizontal social coalition'. In the former, several denominations may come together at every level in the social hierarchy creating a virtual social axis; in the latter, along this axis, the social groups in one state may get integrated to their counterparts in other states, and there may be enlargement of each social group by internal accretions. This has the potential to expand the social base of the BSP in UP as well as in other states.

The difficulty in retrieving its rainbow coalition from the grip of the BSP owing to their new model of social coalition may be giving the Congress leaders sleepless nights while thinking about the party's revival in UP. The Congress may be feeling embarrassed as the projection of Rahul Gandhi's leadership did not bring it any dividends. Rather, the party was down by three seats. But the party has less to blame Rahul Gandhi, and more to its own dilapidated organisation. He had his innings when he attracted crowds; but the party must understand that electors have matured over the years and they want serious business. Is the party at all present at the grassroots?

The number of their elected representatives is so small that the rank and file of the party is totally down and out. Those who are visible face charges of hobnobbing with the party in power. The party needs to think seriously about reorienting its cadre to the callings of contemporary politics, if it really wants to be back as a serious player in the politics of the state.

The BJP seems to be under a shock so much so that its leaders forgot to observe the common courtsey of attending the oath-taking ceremony of the new government. Perhaps, they went by pure electoral arithmetic adding up the 2002 votes of the BJP, Kalyan Singh's erstwhile Rashtriya Kranti Party and Apna Dal. They ignored the fact that the party faces serious leadership, ideological and organisational crises. Virtually, they had nothing to offer to the electorate. All the self-proclaimed heavyweights had to lick the dust.

The new BSP government has surprised everyone by its smart initial moves. It has allowed its social coalition to be reflected in the council of ministers, institutionalised transfers and postings, going all out against the criminals, alerting the police against misuse of the Dalit Act, cautioning its own MLAs against any indisciplined behaviour and political interference in administration, and contemplating to initiate a new culture for the development of the state. The new social coalition promises to be heralding a new era in political governance in UP.

The writer teaches Politics in Christ Church College, Kanpur