Second skin, Original sin

Pervez Musharraf's reluctance to shed his army uniform in the midst of massive protests and     'Talibanisation' might lead him into a rat trap

Pranay Sharma Delhi

The verdict on Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is not yet out, but the general is battling one of the worst crises of his political career. He has to deal with nationwide protests demanding reinstatement of the dismissed Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftekar Mohammed Chaudhury. And he is confronted with hostile Muslim clerics and their armed student supporters who have taken control of the Lal Masjid in the heart of capital Islamabad, demanding a strict adherence to Shariat in Pakistan.

Musharraf's woes do not end there. Assertive ethnic groups are taking to the streets in different parts of the country against the ‘Punjabi domination’ of Pakistan. A deal with Benazir Bhutto that he was carefully trying to stitch together for the past several months has now come apart. To add to his difficulties, most of the leaders in Wazirstan, the tribal area adjacent to Afghanistan, have decided to walk out of the agreement that he had put in place last year. More so, there are reports in the American media that the US government is not ‘too happy’ with Musharraf and is looking at other options in Pakistan that will serve its interests better.

In terms of a historical precedence, military rulers in Pakistan call the shots for about 10 years or so. Ayub Khan ruled from 1958 to 1969 till a nationwide protest forced him out. Zia ul Haq was in power from 1977 to 1989 till a special aircraft carrying him and top army officer’s along with the American ambassador to Pakistan Robert Oakley, exploded in mid-air and brought his end. Going strictly by this yardstick, Musharraf still has a couple of years before he should start worrying about his exit plans. But the fast-paced developments in Pakistan may force his hands and call for an early exit.

"There is a lot of churning going on in Pakistan at the moment and we will have to wait to see the end result," a South Block official said. He argued that nationwide protests against Musharraf, with the Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry as the rallying point, could lead to a more democratic Pakistan. Besides, the rise of fundamentalist forces is a major cause for worry. "A lot therefore depends on how he deals with the Lal Masjid crisis," the official added.

So far the general has dealt with the clerics and the students in Lal Masjid with extreme caution. He has even agreed to a trade-off with the militant students by releasing many of their arrested colleagues in return for some of the policemen who were kidnapped. Encouraged by the government's defensive stand and egged on by Muslim clerics, the students have gone around in the supermarkets of Islamabad threatening to close down all music and video shops and beauty and massage parlours.

In Pakistan these students are being described as the 'new Taliban' . Unlike their predecessors who came to the scene in the wake of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and were mainly sons of Afghan refugees, the new crops are indigenous Pakistanis. They have come to the fore after 9/11 when Musharraf was forced to change Pakistan's Afghan policy and cooperate with the Americans to invade Afghanistan and throw out the 'Taliban-Al Qaeda' regime from Kabul. But why is Musharraf treating the 'illegal occupiers' of Lal Masjid with kid gloves? Some say that many students who laid siege to the mosque are sons and daughters of members of the Pakistani army. If he gives an order to spill their blood the situation may get out of hand and there can even be a revolt within the rank and file.