Second skin, Original sin

Pervez Musharraf's reluctance to shed his army uniform in the midst of massive protests and     'Talibanisation' might lead him into a rat trap

Pranay Sharma Delhi

The verdict on Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is not yet out, but the general is battling one of the worst crises of his political career. He has to deal with nationwide protests demanding reinstatement of the dismissed Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftekar Mohammed Chaudhury. And he is confronted with hostile Muslim clerics and their armed student supporters who have taken control of the Lal Masjid in the heart of capital Islamabad, demanding a strict adherence to Shariat in Pakistan.

Musharraf's woes do not end there. Assertive ethnic groups are taking to the streets in different parts of the country against the ‘Punjabi domination’ of Pakistan. A deal with Benazir Bhutto that he was carefully trying to stitch together for the past several months has now come apart. To add to his difficulties, most of the leaders in Wazirstan, the tribal area adjacent to Afghanistan, have decided to walk out of the agreement that he had put in place last year. More so, there are reports in the American media that the US government is not ‘too happy’ with Musharraf and is looking at other options in Pakistan that will serve its interests better.

In terms of a historical precedence, military rulers in Pakistan call the shots for about 10 years or so. Ayub Khan ruled from 1958 to 1969 till a nationwide protest forced him out. Zia ul Haq was in power from 1977 to 1989 till a special aircraft carrying him and top army officer’s along with the American ambassador to Pakistan Robert Oakley, exploded in mid-air and brought his end. Going strictly by this yardstick, Musharraf still has a couple of years before he should start worrying about his exit plans. But the fast-paced developments in Pakistan may force his hands and call for an early exit.

"There is a lot of churning going on in Pakistan at the moment and we will have to wait to see the end result," a South Block official said. He argued that nationwide protests against Musharraf, with the Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry as the rallying point, could lead to a more democratic Pakistan. Besides, the rise of fundamentalist forces is a major cause for worry. "A lot therefore depends on how he deals with the Lal Masjid crisis," the official added.

So far the general has dealt with the clerics and the students in Lal Masjid with extreme caution. He has even agreed to a trade-off with the militant students by releasing many of their arrested colleagues in return for some of the policemen who were kidnapped. Encouraged by the government's defensive stand and egged on by Muslim clerics, the students have gone around in the supermarkets of Islamabad threatening to close down all music and video shops and beauty and massage parlours.

In Pakistan these students are being described as the 'new Taliban' . Unlike their predecessors who came to the scene in the wake of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and were mainly sons of Afghan refugees, the new crops are indigenous Pakistanis. They have come to the fore after 9/11 when Musharraf was forced to change Pakistan's Afghan policy and cooperate with the Americans to invade Afghanistan and throw out the 'Taliban-Al Qaeda' regime from Kabul. But why is Musharraf treating the 'illegal occupiers' of Lal Masjid with kid gloves? Some say that many students who laid siege to the mosque are sons and daughters of members of the Pakistani army. If he gives an order to spill their blood the situation may get out of hand and there can even be a revolt within the rank and file.

Others argue that the Lal Masjid crisis is a deliberate ruse by Musharraf to divert attention from the opposition that is building up against his regime in different parts of Pakistan. By 'effectively' dealing with the Islamic fundamentalist forces the beleaguered president hopes to get the support of all those within and outside Pakistan who are opposed to the ‘Talibanisation’ of the nation.

But much of the political activities one sees these days in Pakistan are being done with an eye on the year-end presidential elections. Musharraf has made known his intention to be the president for yet another five-year term. He has the required numbers in the National Assembly to get re-elected. And he has made it clear that he has no desire to shed his uniform and give up the chief of army's post till his election is complete. But few believe him.

There are two reasons for this. One section in Pakistan has raised a moral and more ethical question: should National Assembly members who are almost towards the end of their term  take the decision of electing a president for five years and impose their choice on the new members of the assembly? The other section, that includes Benazir Bhutto, does not have any problem with Musharraf becoming president, provided he sheds his uniform before that. Benazir and the others who hold such a view base their wisdom on past experience. They believe that once Musharraf gets re-elected as the country's president, he will find every excuse to continue to hold the post of the chief of army as well. It was precisely the refusal of Musharraf to shed his uniform to contest the presidential election that led to the break-down of the deal that she was negotiating with the general.

Musharraf has often described his uniform as his ‘second skin’. But his reluctance stems from his insecurity. Being an insider of the Pakistani defence establishment he knows the moment he is replaced by someone else as the chief of army, he will stop wielding any real power.

"It can only happen in Pakistan that the chief of army wants security and the head of the Supreme Court wants justice," a columnist commented in a Pakistani daily.

But the problem runs much deeper and has to do with the flawed structures in Pakistan. Justice Chaudhury was dismissed, reportedly, when he opposed the sale of a steel mill by the Pakistani army. But in the past, Justice Chaudhury has played ball and complied with moves that strengthened Musharraf's position. Why did he then decide to go against Musharraf? Some believe he has political ambitions and wants to play a part in the moves to bring about a change in the government in Pakistan.

A full-bench in the Pakistan Supreme Court is now hearing Justice Chaudhury's case and will come out soon with its judgment on whether or not he should be reinstated. Musharraf, a soldier by training and a tactician by instinct, has come out of many difficult situations in the past. He may do so yet again by either cutting deals with opposition parties like the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) or Benazir Bhutto or even Nawaz Sharif. Or he may raise his stature by confronting the hardliners at Lal Masjid and thus re-asserting himself as the only Pakistani leader capable of preventing the 'Talibanisation' of the country.

As for India, even after nearly 60 years of engagement with Pakistan, the foreign policy establishment here is not quite sure what kind of a leader in Pakistan serves its interests best. Every time a democratically elected leader has come to power, sections in the foreign ministry here have found arguments in his favour and predicted better India-Pakistan relations. When a military ruler has taken up power, South Block has turned the arguments in his favour.

The Indian dilemma lies partly in the way Pakistan functions. A weak Pakistani leader, under severe stress, is keen to cut a deal with India. But despite the keenness he is rarely in a position to see the deal carry through. Indeed, a strong leader in Pakistan has the required muscle but is more interested in keeping relations on the boil.

Keeping the limitations of the relationship in mind, India's priority at the moment is to ensure that the developments in Pakistan do not adversely affect the peace process.  Developments in Pakistan are of interest to India. But as South Block mandarins argue, India will deal with whoever is in power in Pakistan. At the end of the day it is for the people of Pakistan to decide what kind of a leader they want. It is after all their choice that will determine the path that Pakistan takes in the coming days.