Proof behind the pudding

The blue elephant has trampled the imaginary wish-lists of all political parties in UP. Next   thundering step: Delhi

Pradeeep Kapoor Lucknow

During the run up to the UP assembly elections, Mayawati knew exactly what people wanted to hear: “I will arrest Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh the moment I come to power.” She sensed that the big issue in UP was not only crime and instability but deep revulsion for Mulayam Singh and his cronies.

This is the reason why everyone perceived to be close to Mulayam Singh during his three-year reign was roundly punished. It is widely believed that tacit or overt links with the Samajwadi Party (SP) led to the downfall of the Congress, BJP, the Left and others who played footsie with the party. Even BJP's Kalyan Singh, who serenaded with Mulayam Singh in the 2002 elections, could not escape the people's wrath.

To sum it up, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Ramesh Dixit termed the mandate for the 2007 assembly elections as a verdict against the “caste and criminal politics” of the SP, “communal politics” of the BJP and the “dynastic rule of the Nehru-Gandhi family”. Atul Anjaan, the CPI leader whose party was completely wiped out along with the CPM, argued that the mandate was against the political instability that has prevailed in the state since 1992; it also reflects a rejection of the opportunist coalitions of political extortionists who have ruled UP for almost two decades.

Mayawati managed to earn the approval of upper caste Brahmins, whom she was wooing aggressively through her efficient 'Brahmin lieutenant', Satish Chandra Mishra. She also used Sudhir Goel and Naseemuddin Siddiqui to mobilise the trading community and the Muslims. 

Will this social engineering experiment succeed in the future? The Congress spokesperson Kapil Sibal believes that this trend will not last long as it was only a political arrangement, made specifically for electoral gains, and will not translate at the larger social level. The only reason why the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) succeeded is because Mayawati was able to project herself as the best alternative to Mulayam Singh, he argues.

Nirmal Khattri, All India Congress Committee (AICC) secretary, says Mayawati gained immensely from the efficient functioning of the Election Commission (EC) which managed relatively free and fair polls for the first time in UP. That is why, thousands of Dalit voters could come out and cast their votes fearlessly. The Former Congress MLA from Baghpat, KK Sharma, told Hardnews that thanks to the EC in western UP, Dalit voters, for the first time since Independence, could cast their votes.

It is worth pointing out that the first case of booth capturing in India was repo-rted from Chhaprauli in western UP in 1952. As is the oppressive code of the feudal caste system, Dalits were not allowed to vote by the powerful Jats of the area. However, this time, the seven phase polls and the presence of 60,000 strong para-military-forces made a marked difference.

Mayawati secured 30.46 per cent of the vote share. She compulsively sees everything from the point of view of caste, as was evident by the fact that after her victory, she presented her lieutenants to the media by mentioning their caste and religion.  Mayawati not only made her close confidante Satish Chandra Mishra the second most important cabinet minister holding many key portfolios, but also appointed other Brahmins and upper-caste members to crucial positions. In order to retain her hold over the upper castes, Mayawati said her government would support reservation for economically weak people from the upper castes.

Her next target will be to get maximum seats in the Lok Sabha polls in 2009, for which she has already begun preparations. She also holds the key to the presidential poll and would like to play king-maker in the next government at the Centre.

For the SP and Mulyam Singh, the writing was on the wall. The SP may have retained its vote share of almost 25.5 per cent as in the 2002 assembly polls, but its number of seats went down from 142 in 2002 to 97 this time. Indeed, in public perception, Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh became hated symbols of crony capitalism, with widespread deterioration in law and order, virtual goonda raj, all round corruption and politicisation of the bureaucracy. This derogatory image was so strong in the minds of a disgusted and helpless people that even a controversial 'ad-campaign' by 'Amar Singh's brother' Amitabh Bachchan, glorifying 'the crime-free scenario in UP', became a subject of mass ridicule.

The SP could still have done better if it had not been for the tough supervision by the EC. All these years, there have been allegations that the SP reportedly got away with bogus voting (evident from the fact that several of its electoral wins including that of Mulayam Singh have been countermanded in the past). The SP alone openly confronted the EC and criticised its drive to conduct free and fair polls without violence and booth-capturing.

A senior SP parliamentarian told Hardnews that his party lost a certain percentage of Yadav and Muslim votes who constituted the support base; this time they voted for the BSP. He said that in those constituencies where the party accommodated dal badlu candidates (those who defected from the BSP after the split in the party to align with the ruling SP) traditional SP voters voted against the party. There were reports that several SP candidates who had been given party tickets refused to fight on the party's 'cycle symbol' and contested as independent candidates. Controversial MLA Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiyya, mafia don turned politician, who Mayawati put behind bars under POTA and Mulayam Singh gifted a lucrative ministerial portfolio, was one such example.

The one politician whom several SP leaders are squarely blaming for the humiliating defeat is none other than Amar Singh. It was because of him that credible veterans like Raj Babbar and Beni Prasad Verma left the party. Babbar, who had been a star campaigner for Mulayam Singh in his difficult times, joined hands with VP Singh and campaigned against Anil Ambani's power plant in Dadri which was being backed by Amar Singh and Mulayam Singh. Farmers here are protesting against the land acquisition, and they were obviously alienated from the SP.

However, if there was one party that received the biggest jolt, it was the BJP. The entire Sangh Parivar had been pressed into service to ensure a big victory and the party openly played its Hindutva and Ram Mandir card. A conference of the RSS Pratinidhi Sabha and a three-day national conclave by the BJP were held in Lucknow. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) held a Virat Hindu Sammelan at Allahabad to exploit the sentiments of the upper castes.

VHP supremo Ashok Singhal announced the formation of a Hindu Matdata Sangh, with prominent sants as its patrons to prevent the division of Hindu votes. All senior leaders were asked to campaign. Atal Behari Vajpayee, despite his bad health, visited his own Lok Sabha constituency, Lucknow, to address a meeting. But the results came as a big shock. The number of MLAs came down to 50, from 88 in the 2002 assembly elections. The vote share dropped to 17 per cent. 

The projection of Kalyan Singh as BJP's chief ministerial candidate did not sell as he was widely perceived as being a tacit ally of Mulayam Singh. The popular perception was that there is a 'secret understanding' between the BJP and SP. Kalyan Singh's erstwhile party, the Rashtriya Kranti Party (RKP), had helped Mulayam Singh in the 2002 elections. Singh's son, Rajbir, and another close associate, Kusum Rai, were then given ministerial berths. Indeed, the palatial bungalows allotted to them then have not been vacated.

During the recent campaign, Mulayam Singh and Kalyan Singh avoided any direct attacks on each other. Leader of the opposition, BJP's Lalji Tandon, was also perceived to be close to Mulayam Singh, having sought several favours from him from time to time. Tandon became an embarrassment in the sari stampede case during the last Lok Sabha polls when he was distributing free saris to poor women in Lucknow on his birthday, many of whom died in the stampede. He was also responsible for the release of a rather perverse CD (which showed Indian Muslims in a poor light) for which the party was pulled up by the opposition as well as the EC. 

BJP state president Kesrinath Trip-athi was considered to be very close to Mulayam Singh. Tripathi, as speaker of the UP assembly, had given legitimacy to the split in the BSP and other parties; this had provided stability to the SP government.

Loyal BJP workers had to take a back seat while the party preferred dal badlu leaders from other parties. This proved counter productive. How badly the party was demoralised on the eve of the polls is evident from the fact that over 20 MLAs deserted it to join the BSP and SP, only to get tickets.

Meanwhile, the BJP has taken corrective steps by replacing Tandon as legislature party leader with a backward Kurmi face: Om Prakash Singh. It is afraid that if Mayawati continues to play her upper- caste card, it will become difficult for the BJP to consolidate its vote base during the Lok Sabha polls.

The Congress has been jolted. It has not been able to retain its tally of 25 seats during the 2002 assembly polls. Its vote share has gone down to 8.6 per cent. The party won only 22 seats. Earlier, it had 15 MLAs since 10 of them defected to the SP after the last assembly polls. Of these 15, the party won only seven sitting MLAs; the rest were elected from other constituencies.

The Nehru-Gandhi magic just did not click. The successful 'Rahul road shows' did not convert into votes. Party insiders say Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have not visited areas beyond their own constituencies, Amethi and Rae Bareilly, in the last three years. This proved disastrous. Significantly, mother and son have not visited the UP Congress office in Lucknow in the last ten years. The last time Sonia Gandhi visited the Congress office was in 1999 when she went there to cast her vote for the AICC presidential poll.

Clearly, the BSP elephant in blue has trampled the imaginary wish-lists of all political formations in UP. Now, only time will tell, whether beyond the dust and drama, this will translate into a new era of hope and development for 'Uttam Pradesh'.