The Great New Game

In an environment of global competition for energy resources, described variously as the 'New Scramble for Africa' and a 'New Cold War', India sees energy security as inherently cooperative in character

Talmiz Ahmad Delhi

India is the fifth largest consumer of energy in the world, accounting for 3.7 per cent of the world's consumption. Its total primary energy demand is expected to almost double by 2030.  Its primary commercial energy consumption in 2004 stood at 375.8 mtoe. This was made up of coal -- 54 per cent, oil -- 32 per cent, natural gas -- eight per cent, hydroelectricity -- five per cent, and nuclear energy -- one per cent. India's commercial energy consumption is expected to double to 812 mtoe in 2030.

The Hydrocarbon Vision 2025, published in February 2000, set out in stark terms India's energy security predicament. It showed a decline in the country's crude oil self-sufficiency from 65 per cent in 1989-90 to 30 per cent in 2000-01, with the situation likely to get worse. India's demand for oil is expected to increase from 122 million tonnes in 2001-02 to 196 million tonnes in 2011-12, and 364 million tonnes in 2024-25.  Domestic production during this period would increase from 26 million tonnes to 52 million tonnes in 2011-12, and to 80 million tonnes in 2024-25. In 2024-25, crude oil self-sufficiency would be a mere 15 per cent. The situation relating to gas is equally grim.

In September 2006, the Planning Commission published the Integrated Energy Policy (IEP), which took a holistic view of India's energy interests.  According to the IEP, India needs to sustain an eight per cent to 10 per cent economic growth rate over the next 25 years to eradicate poverty and meet its human development goals. To meet these targets, the country has to increase its primary energy supply three to four times, and its electricity generation capacity/supply five to six times of 2003-04 levels. Thus, by 2031-32, power generation capacity must increase to nearly 800,000 MW from the current capacity of around 160,000 MW, inclusive of all captive plants.

To achieve these targets the country will have to make a major effort to boost domestic resources, maximise the use of the national hydropower potential, obtain the materials and technologies to pursue civilian nuclear power projects, pursue energy efficiency and demand side management policies. It will also have to diversify energy sources through increased use of renewables. In spite of these efforts, for the next 25 years at least, fossil fuels will dominate our energy requirements, being between 74 per cent and 85 per cent of the energy mix as against 94 per cent at present.

To meet the challenge of energy security, the Vision 2025 document had proposed a robust effort to expand domestic production of oil and  gas by liberalising the oil sector, encouraging    the entry of private Indian and foreign companies, and investments in technology and research and development. An important component is India's 'energy diplomacy'; this consists of robust and multifaceted engagements across the world. These overseas engagements are aimed at securing the following: