Reluctant Inheritor

The coalition has cannibalised the Congress. And Rahul Gandhi knows that ‘family charisma’ might not work on the ground without pro-people social and economic policies

Hardnews Bureau Delhi

For long years, Congressmen have worked on a simple assumption that a member of the Nehru-Gandhi family was all that was required to come to power at the Centre. This belief may have suffered setbacks over the years, but it has not stopped Congressmen from looking up to the family to bring back their days under the sun.

It is from this standpoint that the appointment of Rahul Gandhi is being seen as a positive move by many party members who have been in dithers about what will happen to them in the event of an early election. What has added to their anxiety is that Congress, despite heading the coalition government, has not benefited electorally anywhere. Worse, its area of influence has shrunk to just a few states. For the first time, it has stopped looking like a national party.

The coalition has cannibalised the Congress. Its alliance partners have made it clear to the Congress leadership that they cannot spread their wings in areas where they hold sway. Hence, the Congress remains a peripheral force in Bihar leaving the turf to alliance partner Lalu Prasad Yadav. In the Left-ruled states of Kerala and West Bengal, Congressmen have been weighed down by the fact that their party is in power due to the support of the communists.

The coalition arrangement reflected the primacy the high command gave to the running of government over the interests of the party, but appointment of Rahul Gandhi might bring about a shift in emphasis. His elevation as the general secretary of the party is really his anointment as the successor to his mother, Sonia Gandhi, who could not head the government due to her Italian birth. Rahul Gandhi would have little reason to display any coyness when it comes to occupying the prime ministerial office. Unlike his mother who strove to bring the Congress to power and then asked Manmohan Singh to be the prime minister, Rahul Gandhi would follow the route taken by his father, late Rajiv Gandhi. However, he can become the prime minister only if the Congress gets the numbers — which seems unlikely at the moment.

Indeed, the party is going to lose heavily in many of the states that gave them 140-odd parliamentary seats and catapulted them to power.  In Andhra Pradesh, the party may just get seven to eight seats. Tamil Nadu is going to be no different where the DMK-Congress alliance could get a battering, informs a Congress leader. The situation is unlikely to be different in Maharashtra or Karnataka. And Bihar and UP could be catastrophic if they do not change their strategy. In Bihar, they will have to part ways with Lalu Prasad's party if it wants to revive its fortunes.  However, there might be compensation for these losses as the party may get some seats from Rajasthan, MP and Gujarat due to the anti-incumbency vote against BJP.

Rahul Gandhi must have discovered the limits to the Gandhi-family charisma during his two election campaigns in UP where the Congress performed abysmally. Charisma works only if it is backed by grassroots policies that help the poor. A good organisation is a corollary of such policies as social and economic constituencies provide muscle and manpower to electoral efforts. Indira Gandhi sparkled when she promised to eradicate poverty. Argentina wept when Eva Peron died as she also worked with the marginalised.

Rahul Gandhi will have to ignore the advice of backroom boys who plug in to their ipods and google to find a prescription for him. To comprehend the Indian reality means dirtying your feet in the mud and filth of the arid Hindi heartland and beyond. He has done that twice in the last few years, but his campaign has floundered due to poor articulation of policies. He has fallen in the trap of spin-doctors who have forced him to mouth controversial bytes to occupy TV time and newspaper real estate. He would have to go beyond such 'smart-alec' response and get real.

Two things are clear: Sonia Gandhi has given up her claim to be the prime minister. And the party will not project Manmohan Singh as the next prime minister. The Congress reshuffle shows a generational shift and if Rahul Gandhi's entry is properly choreographed with right kind of policies, he just might do what the average Congressmen has been pining for.