Open the Iron Curtain

For Indian diplomats growing Indo-US relations are not a zero-sum game. Despite fears and scepticism, there is nothing that establishes that India has lost its sovereign foreign policy

Pranay Sharma Delhi

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohammed El Baradei will definitely not make it to the list of invitees if US President George W Bush is to host a private banquet to discuss Iran. El Baradei has committed a serious crime: he has successfully reached an agreement with the leadership in Teheran to allow IAEA inspectors to be in Iran to watch over its nuclear programme. This, in effect, scuttles the US government's plan to take tough action, including military options, against Iran for 'non-compliance' of its commitment to stop all works at its nuclear sites.

The US and many of its western allies fear Iran is secretly trying to develop nuclear bombs. Teheran claims its nuclear programme is for peaceful purpose and argues that its international commitments allow it to pursue such a programme. But El Baradei's report to the UN Security Council recently shows Iran is willing to cooperate with the IAEA and there is no convincing evidence to establish it is making nuclear weapons.

As the Bush administration in Washington fumes and looks for other options to corner Iran, the leadership in New Delhi has decided to invite El Baradei to come to India for talks next month. On the face of it his visit here is nothing unusual. He has been to India in the past and plans to come again next month as part of his tour programme to visit all member countries that are on the IAEA board of governors. But the timing of the visit is significant.

It gives the Congress-led UPA government the chance to hammer out the rough edges in the proposed text of the India-specific additional protocol that New Delhi plans to sign with the IAEA. It is an important document. The additional protocol, as well as changes the Nuclear Suppliers' Group makes in its existing guidelines, will together help in getting the civil nuclear agreement the final nod of approval from the US Congress.

The chairman of India's Atomic Energy Commission, Anil Kakodkar, was in Vienna some days back to attend the IAEA board of governors' meeting. He had the opportunity of holding talks with El Baradei and others on the fate of the 123 agreement that India and the US are scheduled to sign for cooperation in the field of civil nuclear energy. Kakodkar will be the main host when the IAEA chief visits India next month. But El Baradei will also get a chance to meet other senior members in the Indian government including Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee and National Security Advisor MK Narayanan.

El Baradei is likely to walk into India at a time when the government is under tremendous political pressure, especially from key allies like the Left parties, on the civil nuclear deal. The Left parties, whose support is crucial for the UPA government's survival, have made it clear that if India goes ahead with the IAEA negotiations, it will have to face political consequences. In political circles it is being interpreted as withdrawal of support that will render the ruling UPA-coalition as a minority government and may bring in early elections in the country.

However, El Baradei's presence here can be highlighted by the government as interaction with a person whose sovereign credentials, in the face of sustained US pressure, is well-established. A few statements are likely from the IAEA chief and the Indian leaders on Iran that may go down well with sceptics who fear the Indo-US nuclear deal will force New Delhi to give up its sovereign foreign policy.