Open the Iron Curtain

For Indian diplomats growing Indo-US relations are not a zero-sum game. Despite fears and scepticism, there is nothing that establishes that India has lost its sovereign foreign policy

Pranay Sharma Delhi

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohammed El Baradei will definitely not make it to the list of invitees if US President George W Bush is to host a private banquet to discuss Iran. El Baradei has committed a serious crime: he has successfully reached an agreement with the leadership in Teheran to allow IAEA inspectors to be in Iran to watch over its nuclear programme. This, in effect, scuttles the US government's plan to take tough action, including military options, against Iran for 'non-compliance' of its commitment to stop all works at its nuclear sites.

The US and many of its western allies fear Iran is secretly trying to develop nuclear bombs. Teheran claims its nuclear programme is for peaceful purpose and argues that its international commitments allow it to pursue such a programme. But El Baradei's report to the UN Security Council recently shows Iran is willing to cooperate with the IAEA and there is no convincing evidence to establish it is making nuclear weapons.

As the Bush administration in Washington fumes and looks for other options to corner Iran, the leadership in New Delhi has decided to invite El Baradei to come to India for talks next month. On the face of it his visit here is nothing unusual. He has been to India in the past and plans to come again next month as part of his tour programme to visit all member countries that are on the IAEA board of governors. But the timing of the visit is significant.

It gives the Congress-led UPA government the chance to hammer out the rough edges in the proposed text of the India-specific additional protocol that New Delhi plans to sign with the IAEA. It is an important document. The additional protocol, as well as changes the Nuclear Suppliers' Group makes in its existing guidelines, will together help in getting the civil nuclear agreement the final nod of approval from the US Congress.

The chairman of India's Atomic Energy Commission, Anil Kakodkar, was in Vienna some days back to attend the IAEA board of governors' meeting. He had the opportunity of holding talks with El Baradei and others on the fate of the 123 agreement that India and the US are scheduled to sign for cooperation in the field of civil nuclear energy. Kakodkar will be the main host when the IAEA chief visits India next month. But El Baradei will also get a chance to meet other senior members in the Indian government including Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee and National Security Advisor MK Narayanan.

El Baradei is likely to walk into India at a time when the government is under tremendous political pressure, especially from key allies like the Left parties, on the civil nuclear deal. The Left parties, whose support is crucial for the UPA government's survival, have made it clear that if India goes ahead with the IAEA negotiations, it will have to face political consequences. In political circles it is being interpreted as withdrawal of support that will render the ruling UPA-coalition as a minority government and may bring in early elections in the country.

However, El Baradei's presence here can be highlighted by the government as interaction with a person whose sovereign credentials, in the face of sustained US pressure, is well-established. A few statements are likely from the IAEA chief and the Indian leaders on Iran that may go down well with sceptics who fear the Indo-US nuclear deal will force New Delhi to give up its sovereign foreign policy.

It is interesting that within a few days of El Baradei's visit to India, UPA chairperson and Congress President Sonia Gandhi is scheduled to visit China. She might be there towards the end of October, some weeks after China finishes its crucial party congress that, among other things, will also elect the new leaders who will play a crucial role in running the country. During her visit Sonia Gandhi will be able to assure the Chinese leadership about India's intention to have strong ties with China and how the two sides can work together on a number of areas for their mutual benefit.

Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon has already visited Beijing to hold talks with the Chinese leadership on Sonia Gandhi's proposed visit. He also took the opportunity to get a sense of whether or not China, a crucial member in international affairs, will support India at the Nuclear Suppliers' Group, since all decisions in the organisation has to be by consensus. There are indications that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will also visit China either at the end of the year or early next year.

All the three visits are part of the Congress-led coalition government's attempt to re-assure both the Chinese leadership as well as sceptics at home that India is keen to develop strong relations with Beijing. China has figured prominently in the Indian debate on the nuclear agreement. Supporters of the deal have accused their opponents of trying to block the deal on China's bidding. Indeed, the Left leaders have expressed apprehension that after the nuclear deal, India may be forced to be a part of the US-initiated policy to 'contain China'.

Meanwhile, many Indian diplomats in South Block and elsewhere are beginning to favour a debate on the civil nuclear deal that will give the government a chance to state clearly as to why strong relations between India and the US is crucial. The foreign policy establishment in India is not known to encourage debates within its outfit on key policy issues. Usually, decisions are taken at the political level and South Block officials are expected to execute them.

However, this has not stopped a large number of foreign ministry officials from arguing on the need for a larger debate on the nuclear deal. They feel that the prime minister and other senior leaders of the Congress have erred by attempting to limit the nuclear agreement debate only to India's energy needs. They acknowledge that the agreement goes much beyond. They admit its crucial importance as it redefines India's foreign policy objectives in more ways than one and gives New Delhi the opportunity to find the right track to meet its future challenges.

"I see no reason why the government wants to fudge the issue and seems so apologetic about our growing ties with the US," a South Block official stated. He and many others feel the debate should be out in the open and the government should put the advantage it perceives (by developing strong relations with the US) before the public.

Next month India is scheduled to hold its annual summit with the European Union in New Delhi. Significantly, the prime minister will be travelling to Moscow in November for a similar summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The series of meetings and opportunities will help the Indian leadership to engage with all the world players in a meaningful manner. Indeed, this may be part of the argument that the South Block mandarins are keen to bring to public domain.

The message is simple: the growing Indo-US relations are not a zero-sum game. If India is developing its ties with the US, it is also doing so with other major countries in the world. Despite fears and scepticism, there is nothing that establishes that India has lost its sovereign foreign policy.

This may be the growing view among Indian diplomats. But a lot will depend on whether the prime minister and other Congress leaders have the courage to come out in the open and face the nation.