Twinkle Twinkle Red Star

Integrating the Maoists into the mainstream and sensitively tackling issues of the marginalised, especially the Madhesis, will be the two most important challenges in the days ahead

Prashant Jha Kathmandu

Nepal's political landscape has become more confusing and challenging, but as usual, retains exciting possibilities. The Tarai, the country's southern plains bordering India, where an alienated populace is fighting for their fundamental rights, continues to be in turmoil with proliferation of actors, multiple fautlines and increasing violence. The Maoists, after having displayed remarkable political acumen in deciding to enter mainstream politics, have withdrawn from the interim government, though, importantly, not from the peace process.

For the first time, Kathmandu has seen serial blasts, a reflection that the dismal public security situation is not merely restricted to the hinterland. And strikingly, the conservative Nepali Congress (NC) has decided to turn republican, much to the disappointment of the man in the Naraynhiti Palace, but almost certainly paving the way for abolition of monarchy sooner than later.

The Madhesis, who speak plains languages, share extensive kinship and cultural ties with people across the border in India. They constitute 33 per cent of Nepal's population and they are fighting a battle for identity and representation. That is, identity-based politics has picked up in the Tarai.

A genuine movement for rights and equality took place in the early part of the year but a fragmented Madhesi leadership was unable to sustain the momentum and bargain effectively with the State for their rights. The interim regime in Kathmandu made the right noises about inclusion but remained insensitive, did not implement promises and resorted to divide and rule tactics to weaken the Madhesi movement.

This has created multiple fautlines, some of which came fore in a recent outbreak of political and communal violence in the central Tarai district of Kapilvastu which borders UP. For one, there is massive trust deficit between the State and the Madhesi population which believes that the ruling 'hill elite' does not want to share power and be inclusive. There is competition for political space between the Maoists and Madhesi groups who share a tense and antagonistic relationship. This is because most Madhesi leaders are former Maoists who accuse the 'reds' of having betrayed the Madhesi agenda.

There is also competition, often violent, among the innumerable Madhesi groups themselves. Add to this a growing ethnic divide and increasing tensions between people of hill-origin, Pahadis, who live in the Tarai, and the Madhesis, and the scenario becomes tenuous and tense.

On September 16, Mohid Khan, a viscerally anti-Maoist Madhesi Muslim leader, who headed vigilante groups in the past, was shot dead by unknown assailants who happened to be Pahadis. His supporters suspected the Maoists. This sparked off clashes between the political rivals, as well as between Pahadis and Madhesis, besides creating possibility of a Hindu-Muslim spat. More than 30 people died and several thousands were displaced, showing the fragile nature of Tarai politics.

Kapilvastu is symbolic of the absence of the 'State' and administrative machinery, and the political vacuum in the Tarai where mainstream parties have lost out; but the newer Madhesi outfits have not gained. There has been unprecedented rise in violence, with 22 armed groups operating in the Tarai, most of them criminal outfits who have no political core but use the plank of identity chauvinism. Unless Kathmandu sensitively tackles core Madhesi grievances as well as rampant lawlessness, and Madhesi moderate forces take politics in their hands, the Tarai promises to destabilise Nepal's politics, besides having an impact on neighbouring Bihar and UP across the open border.