The party may well be over

Bal Thackeray faces the toughest of times as rebellion comes from within and without

Gajanan Khergamker Mumbai

When Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray wrote an edit in a mid-December issue of his party spokespaper Saamna, it wasn't the same familiar roar. It was muffled with a thick veil of insecurity. "I want to tell the media that whatever is in your minds is not going to happen," he said before going on to spell out, "Shiv Sena is invincible and indestructible." And then, he went on to say that,

"I have lived all my life like a sanyasi," referring to his having controlled the party's remote without ever contesting a single poll. He also added, "The more you try to suppress the Shiv Sena, the more it will rise."

Evidently, Saheb was on the back foot. After two upheavals — one from his north Indian ally Sanjay Nirupam who shared a relationship of convenience with the party, and another from Narayan Rane, who inflicted the worst possible blow on the Tiger — this time, the rebellion has come from within. After spending 18 long years serving the Shiv Sena's interests, nephew Raj Thackeray quit that membership and vacated the posts of leader of allied Sena organisations — Bharatiya Vidyarthi Sena and Shiv Udyog Sena.

It's a strategic move that could well change the face of the Shiv Sena's future. Raj Thackeray has reserved announcing the constitution, ideology and future agenda of his political outfit until after his Maharashtra tour slated for January 2006.

Shiv Sena's relations with the first to defect from the party, Sanjay Nirupam, were based on mutual benefit that fetched a political platform for loudmouth Nirupam who caused more damage than good with his public statements. For the Shiv Sena, it was a safe arrangement that positioned the party as one that was soft on north Indians despite its strong Marathi Manus flavour. However, when Sanjay Nirupam chose to speak at length about nepotism and corruption within the party, targeting the issue of a huge allotment of Reliance Infocomm shares to the Bharatiya Janata Party's Pramod Mahajan, it got too hot for Shiv Sena to handle. To prevent any embarrassment to his coalition partner, Thackeray asked Nirupam to desist but he refused. There were a series of rebellions at several levels of the party but it didn't quite matter: Nirupam left and the monolith couldn't care less.

The worst possible blow came from dissident Sena leader Narayan Rane, who joined the Congress and went on to retain his hold on the Malvan Assembly seat doubling his victory margin. Rane was expected to win but the rout spelt doom for the Sena. The Thackeray loyalist's departure from the party and subsequent victory on his own steam indicated that the supremo's popularity was on the wane.

The election slogan: Narayan Rane angaar hai, baaki sab bhangaar hai ("Narayan Rane burns like a fire, the rest are all junk") almost seemed to prove prophetic. What made matters worse was Raj's resignation in the wake of  Sena's defeat.

In a firmly worded letter after the Konkan debacle, Raj wrote to Thackeray senior asking for an explanation for the Sena rout. Without directly naming Uddhav, Raj apparently said that a "sycophantic quartet" had been misguiding Thackeray. The reference was to Uddhav and three other Sainiks, including his aide Milind Narvekar and Sena leader Subhash Desai.

Apparently, tension between the two cousins had been mounting ever since the post of executive president was created for Uddhav three years ago. The party's cadre had been divided, with the majority staying with Uddhav because he had his father's blessings. Raj's exit from the party has thrown a spanner in the works. Thackeray, on his part, says it's a "family affair" but sternly refuses to buckle under the pressure. After all, miffed with the Rane episode, the Tiger is all set to fight for his own.

Incidentally, a lot of young and aggressive cadres from Narayan Rane's ranks are expected to move over to Raj's party that enjoys the network of Bharatiya Vidyarthi Sena (BVS), the Sena's student wing. Within days of Raj's resignation, eight shakha pramukhs put in their papers in an auspicious start for the nephew.

Subsequently, there are signs of the BJP doing a fresh rethink about whether it should persist with its old alliance of the Sena under Bal Thackeray or ride along with Raj's charisma. Either way, the dent to Thackeray's fiefdom seems to be evident to all. What made matters worse was the manner in which the young Thackeray left Sena. While on the face of things, the intention was not to split the party like Rane did but it will ultimately lead to just that.

His party won't be a Sena breakaway faction, says Raj when asked. "I'm not interested in a break-and-build exercise," he said. And although he hasn't taken away any MLAs, MPs, corporators or office-bearers with him, he says the doors are open for whoever wants to join. Buoyed by the support of members of two youth forums in the Sena—BVS and Shiv Udyog Sena—Raj is keen on assimilating the youth from across party lines throughout the nation. But then, analysts feel that the youth membership of an approximate 10,000 that supports Raj isn't quite substantial enough to threaten Shiv Sena's stronghold like Narayan Rane did in Malvan.

That apart, Rane being an elected representative, commanded the support of voters, workers and a range of party members. He could hold his own and command senior high-profile positions in his new party too as opposed to Raj who stands to lose a lot more than Rane if he quits the Sena.

The identity crucial to his rise is the one Raj has chosen to abandon. That move would only prove to be detrimental to Raj as his exit would be beneficial to other parties in the blow it deals to Shiv Sena. The chunk he snares out of Shiv Sena's coffer of loyalists will only add to the Tiger's misery. And, in its cascading effect on the Empire — Raj's exit fetches a similar aftermath as Rane's.

"Stop worrying about whether there will be a split vertical or horizontal. Worry about Maharashtra and yourselves. We are competent to defend our fort.... I want to tell the media that whatever is in your minds is not going to happen... The Shiv Sena is invincible and indestructible," continues to roar Bal Thackeray all ready to take stock of affairs on Raj's exit.

Thirty-nine years after its formation, the process of disintegration seems to have begun in the Shiv Sena. The party is finally coming apart. Its meteoric rise on the basis of policies that were elbowed out of the poll planks and the dynastic overtures that made more news than the party's work only indicated that it was a matter of time before the Shiv Sena fell apart.

The one question that plagued loyalists following Bal Thackeray's recent announcement of withdrawal from the party's public affairs was who would lead the party. Raj's unceremonious exit from the Shiv Sena with strong overtures of a split only worsens the situation. While Udhav seems to be sitting plum with his father's blessings biding him through tough times, Raj has dented the party's prospects as a formidable right-wing Hindu outfit.