Certainty in uncertainty

The Tamil Nadu polls could have a sizable impact on the government in the Centre

ER Gopinath Chennai

The polling for the state assembly for Tamil Nadu is scheduled to be held on May 8. The big question is whether the outcome will follow the trend set in 1966 after the fall of the Congress government — a pendulum swing between the two ‘Dravidian’ parties, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) or whether the state will have a coalition government in office for the first time.

In 1966, when Bhaktavatsalam’s Congress was defeated, it was the DMK that assumed power. M G Ramachandran’s AIADMK followed them. When MGR died in 1987, his widow, Janaki held office very briefly. Then came a spell of President’s rule for one and a half year. In the 1989 elections, the DMK came back to power and held office till 1991 when it was dismissed. From 1991 to 1997, MGR’s protégé Jayalalithaa presided over an AIADMK government. She was defeated by the DMK in 1996, but came back to power in 2001 and is in office.

Several new parties have also come into being like the Pattali Makkal Katchi, an offshoot of the caste-based Vanniyar Sangham and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam headed by  V Gopalaswamy, more popularly known as Vaiko. The Communists tagged on, mostly independently. Of the national parties, the BJP had a brief honeymoon with the AIADMK. The relationship ended with the AIADMK pulling the carpet from under the feet of the BJP and unseating the party at the Centre.

For the current assembly elections, the DMK is aligned with the Congress, the Left parties and the PMK in a Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA), reflecting their alliance with the Congress in the UPA. The effort is to isolate Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK with a formidable alliance which in terms of arithmetic totes up a winning slice of the vote bank. The withdrawal of Vaiko’s MDMK from this alliance and his decision to tie up with Jayalalithaa was an early development. The BJP and its allies could very well be routed.

Most observers, including the DPA, however do not believe that the elections will be a walkover. On the other hand several pre-poll surveys, including one conducted by the Kumudam magazine, are projecting a Jayalalithaa victory.

The Hindu IBN-CNN survey, conducted before the DMK doyen Karunanidhi started his election campaign, said a firm prediction was too close to call and could be covered by the normal margin of error factor. But even this poll projected a 46 per cent vote share to Jayalalithaa and 44 per cent to DPA.

Speaking to the press after signing her nomination in Theni on April 15, Jayalalithaa said   her party would romp home and form the government. “The people of Tamil Nadu are known for giving a very clear verdict. This time too they will give a clear verdict,” she said.

As for the DPA, the DMK is contesting only 129 seats. It is unlikely that a DMK government will come to power even if the DPA alliance wins. Ramchandran suggested a landmark election with the possibility of throwing up a coalition government for the first time in the state.

The Tamil Nadu elections will have an impact on the Central government also. If Jayalalithaa triumphs, the moves to bring about a third front alternative may get a fillip. The Congress may change its attitude to Jayalalithaa. On her part she has been on record speaking in favour of a Third Front alternative in New Delhi.