Tectonic shift in the Muslim vote

The recently-concluded assembly elections show that the Congress is rapidly losing its traditional constituency

Naveen Surabaneni Delhi

The Congress has lost a considerable section of its traditional constituency, a fact clearly brought out by the recentlyconcluded assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Pondichery, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. The ramifications extend to the national canvas. The shift in Muslim community’s voting preference indicates a reversal of trend since the Lok Sabha 2004, where post-poll investigations indicated that the Congress Party’s support among the Muslim community had increased in the 2004 after a long gap since the 1992 Babri Masjid demolition. What has brought about this shift?

It is first necessary to understand and map the shift in the Muslim vote. Two states, Assam with 30 per cent and Kerala with 25 per cent Muslim population present an excellent opportunity to understand the extent of shift in Muslim vote. In Assam, six districts – Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Nagaon, Karimganj and Hailaknadi – have more than 50 per cent Muslim population. These districts account for 38 of the total 126 assembly constituencies in the state. In addition four other districts have sizable Muslim population ranging from 35 – 45 per cent. A historic analysis of performance of the Congress Party in Assam shows that the party did well in these areas. That is how Congress Party in Assam is said to be identified more as party for “Ali” (Muslim) and “Coolie” (tea garden workers). Similarly in Kerala, Malapuram has 69 per cent Muslim population and some districts like Kozhikode, Kasargod, Kannur, Wayanad and Pallakad, the Muslim population is in the range of 27–35 percent. The analysis decline in the vote share in these constituencies is much more than the overall decline in the vote share across the state. In Assam the decline in the vote share is more or less in line with the state average because of the sprinkling of Muslim voters across the districts. In only 8 of 23 districts, the Muslim vote is below the 10 percentage point. In Assam, the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) which is collection of small Muslim organisations has won 10 seats. In Kerala, the UDF alliance partner Indian United Muslim League (IUML) had won only 7 seats down from 16 seats in 2002. This is for the first time the IUML has less than 10 seats in the assembly. Left parties managed to win some of the stronghold of IUML which the party never lost since 1980s like Majeswar, Koduvally, Tirur,Kuttipuram and Mannarkkad. The defining political message in the verdict is that the Muslim community in the Malabar region has for the first time changed its traditional stand of voting for the Indian Union Muslim League.