Shadowing India

Pakistan seems aware that it cannot on its own turn SAARC into an effective grouping, and it hopes that the presence of China, even as an observer country, would enable the others in the grouping to cluster around Beijing

Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr Delhi

Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf's observations in his talk at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies (SIIS) on June 14 about the positive role that China will play as an observer in the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) suggest that he and the political establishment in Islamabad are forever on their toes, fending off every perceived threat and competition from India. He was attending the Shanghai Cooperative Organisation (SCO) summit meeting, where Pakistan is an observer country along with India, Iran and Mongolia.

Musharraf argued that China's presence will boost SAARC, making it plain that the rivalry between the two largest members, India and Pakistan, has effectively crippled the South Asian grouping. Musharraf told the SIIS:  "We are very happy and proud that China has got observer status in SAARC…"

Interestingly, India's foreign secretary Shyam Saran too made a pertinent observation at the SIIS on January 10 this year. During the question-and-answer session that followed his talk on India's foreign policy and Asia, he was asked:  "Mr Secretary, my question is related to SAARC. Now China has become an observer in SAARC. In what aspects do you think, China might be able to contribute to it in addition to China's relations with individual South Asian States? And what role do you think China can play in the multilateral process if there is any in South Asia"?

Saran responded: "Well, we have welcomed China having become an observer with SAARC and in fact there are a number of areas where China can contribute…There are a number of regional projects which are on the agenda and frankly, it is for China to select which particular area it would like to work together with the Association."

And then he went on to state the crux of the issue, and in the process he effectively ruled out any great role for China as long as SAARC members are unable to cooperate with each other. Saran said: "Part of the problem that we are facing is that South Asian countries themselves do not have many collaborative projects...So, there is also the reality that unless South Asian countries themselves decide to work together and come up with collaborative projects, the possibility of very close cooperation with countries outside the region may not be that big."

Pakistan seems aware that it cannot on its own turn SAARC into an effective grouping, and it hopes that the presence of China, even as an observer country, would enable the others in the grouping to cluster around Beijing.  This is not exactly a wild dream on the part of Pakistan. It is a known fact that Sri Lanka and Nepal have always enjoyed cordial, and even strategic, relations with China. And so does Bangladesh. That leaves the two other members, Bhutan and the Maldives, which might remain close to India because of their military dependence on New Delhi.

The Islamabad game plan is not hard to discern. China has been a strategic partner of Pakistan, next only to the United States. With the US apparently tilting towards an economically vibrant India, there is no doubt that Pakistan will have to shore up its friends/allies as it were. It is not that Pakistan is putting all its eggs in the China basket.

Musharraf in his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of SCO expressed the hope that Russia will support Pakistan's bid to become a full member of the SCO, while Putin thanked Musharraf for enabling Russia to become an observer country with the Organisation of Muslim Countries (OIC). This should not come as a surprise either. Pakistan and the former Soviet Union had close ties despite the cold war. Soviet Union played the "honest broker" in the 1966 Tashkent talks between India and Pakistan.