An emerging troika

A trilateral meeting of the leaders of India, China and Russia on the sidelines of the United Nations general assembly session in 2003 caused a lot of heartburn among several Western nations including the United States

Suvrokamal Dutta Delhi

The recent talk of the so-called India –China–Russia Troika has raised many eyebrows at the international level. All the three countries have been quick to vehemently deny the emergence of such a troika. But there seems to some foundation of truth and realism in the idea of a troika and if it finally happens it would change the contours of the geo-political-strategic positioning and relationship of the Asia-Pacific countries. It might well give sleepless nights to the West and the United States of America in relation to its strategic and foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region.

India’s relationship with China has taken a dramatic u-turn in the last couple of years. With the memories of the 1962 war still in mind a change like this is significant. The ice was broken during the visit of the former Indian PM Rajiv Gandhi to China followed by the visit of high-level delegations from China to India.

The increase in the quantum of bilateral trade is a sign of improved relations between the two countries. India-China bilateral trade reached a new record with total trade touching US$13.6 billion in 2004 and India enjoying a comfortable trade surplus of $1.75 billion. The latest Chinese customs statistics indicate that the India-China annual trade for 2004 increased 79 per cent from 2003.

The trade figure achieved during 2004 was $3.6 billion more than expected at the beginning of the year, which shows the huge potential that exists between the two fastest growing economies. During January-December 2004, Indian exports to China grew by 80.5 per cent to reach $7.68 billion. Meanwhile, India's imports from China registered a 77.2 per cent year-on-year growth to hit $5.93 billion. The trade balance for the year stood in India's favor at $1.75 billion.

The monthly trade volume recorded a yearly high of $1.44 billion, surpassing November's high of $1.32 billion. Indian exports to China in December touched $744 million and imports for the month reached $697 million with no significant change in the composition of the bilateral trade basket.  Iron ore dominated Indian exports to China.

With such huge economic benefits it is quite natural for both the countries to move ahead and this is the rationale behind both the countries trying to expand their bilateral relationship in a multi-faceted manner. The recent defence pact between the two countries is one more step in this direction. Expectedly it has caused some anxiety in international circles. 

The agreement would institutionalise training, exercises and other contacts between the armed forces of the two countries. The agreement would aim to develop a “strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity between India and China and enhance trust between their two militaries.” The China Daily reported that agreement could become an instrument for regular and sustained dialogue between Beijing and New Delhi on defence issues.

During his visit defence minister, Pranab Mukherjee, met Premier Wen Jiabao. He also visited the military bases in Beijing and Shanghai and the Beijing Aerospace Command and Control Center. However the thorn in the warming Sino-Indian relationship is the border dispute which still needs to be solved. However both the countries agree that it should be solved respecting the sentiments of both the countries.

The Russian connection