An emerging troika

A trilateral meeting of the leaders of India, China and Russia on the sidelines of the United Nations general assembly session in 2003 caused a lot of heartburn among several Western nations including the United States

Suvrokamal Dutta Delhi

The recent talk of the so-called India –China–Russia Troika has raised many eyebrows at the international level. All the three countries have been quick to vehemently deny the emergence of such a troika. But there seems to some foundation of truth and realism in the idea of a troika and if it finally happens it would change the contours of the geo-political-strategic positioning and relationship of the Asia-Pacific countries. It might well give sleepless nights to the West and the United States of America in relation to its strategic and foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region.

India’s relationship with China has taken a dramatic u-turn in the last couple of years. With the memories of the 1962 war still in mind a change like this is significant. The ice was broken during the visit of the former Indian PM Rajiv Gandhi to China followed by the visit of high-level delegations from China to India.

The increase in the quantum of bilateral trade is a sign of improved relations between the two countries. India-China bilateral trade reached a new record with total trade touching US$13.6 billion in 2004 and India enjoying a comfortable trade surplus of $1.75 billion. The latest Chinese customs statistics indicate that the India-China annual trade for 2004 increased 79 per cent from 2003.

The trade figure achieved during 2004 was $3.6 billion more than expected at the beginning of the year, which shows the huge potential that exists between the two fastest growing economies. During January-December 2004, Indian exports to China grew by 80.5 per cent to reach $7.68 billion. Meanwhile, India's imports from China registered a 77.2 per cent year-on-year growth to hit $5.93 billion. The trade balance for the year stood in India's favor at $1.75 billion.

The monthly trade volume recorded a yearly high of $1.44 billion, surpassing November's high of $1.32 billion. Indian exports to China in December touched $744 million and imports for the month reached $697 million with no significant change in the composition of the bilateral trade basket.  Iron ore dominated Indian exports to China.

With such huge economic benefits it is quite natural for both the countries to move ahead and this is the rationale behind both the countries trying to expand their bilateral relationship in a multi-faceted manner. The recent defence pact between the two countries is one more step in this direction. Expectedly it has caused some anxiety in international circles. 

The agreement would institutionalise training, exercises and other contacts between the armed forces of the two countries. The agreement would aim to develop a “strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity between India and China and enhance trust between their two militaries.” The China Daily reported that agreement could become an instrument for regular and sustained dialogue between Beijing and New Delhi on defence issues.

During his visit defence minister, Pranab Mukherjee, met Premier Wen Jiabao. He also visited the military bases in Beijing and Shanghai and the Beijing Aerospace Command and Control Center. However the thorn in the warming Sino-Indian relationship is the border dispute which still needs to be solved. However both the countries agree that it should be solved respecting the sentiments of both the countries.

The Russian connection

With India having age-old historic ties with Russia based on solid foundations, the emergence of warmer ties with China means a lot for this region. Already China and Russia have solved their old border disputes amicably, with mutual respect and trust. Sino–Russian trade is quite robust and is increasing steadily. In 2003-04 the annual trade between China and Russia was to the tune of US$ 5 billion which is a significant share of the country’s annual trade. With India having her maximum defence and military trade with Russia, which contributes 70 percent of India’s defence needs, greater cooperation between the three countries would assume great significance in future if it really works out.

Russia's inability to impede the eastward expansion of NATO and its frustration over NATO's unilateral military action in Kosovo have forced Moscow to seek closer strategic understanding with China and India. Yevgeny Primakov of Russia was the first person to talk about a "strategic triangle" constituted by Russia, China and India. Each of these states is involved in a somewhat similar dynamics. Each is consolidating its relationship with the others, while also expanding its relations with the United States. In terms of strategic payoffs, this partnership will yield them, at a minimum, enhanced benefits of bilateral and trilateral cooperation with each other and, at a maximum, it can serve to neutralise US influence in the Asia–Pacific region. This potential partnership could be the blueprint for the next Cold War and poses a threat that could affect the lives of everyone in the United States in a significant way. This is why the US is quite itchy about the unfolding trilateral tie.

During President Putin’s visit to India in December 2003 a multi-billion dollar Russian defence deal was signed under which IL-78 Flight Refuelling Aircrafts, the Aircraft Carrier Admiral Gorshkov, and IL-78 FRAs would be given to India by Russia. Under this agreement Russia would also sell to India the MiG-29K fighter aircraft for the aircraft carrier besides the sale and joint production of submarines and frigates.

Signs of the troika

With such warm ties the emergence of a troika cannot be ruled out. A trilateral meeting of the heads of the three countries on the sidelines of the United Nations general assembly session in 2003 caused a lot of heartburn among several western nations including the US. The then external affairs minister of India had brushed this aside as nothing but wasted assumptions saying the meeting had taken place to discuss global issues and cross-border terrorism concerning the three countries. The clarification was made during the question hour while replying to the supplementaries. The minister said, “This kind of meeting took 14 years to take place and no country was mentioned by name during the informal meeting, though the issue of terrorism in general figured in the discussions.” He added, “Otherwise, it would have given the impression that we (India, Russia and China) are forming a group.” The minister had also said then, “The foreign ministers of India, Russia and China agreed to meet informally in the same format and in this informal meeting we did not bring up bilateral issues and only trilateral issues were discussed. The meeting also discussed globalisation.”

The indirect acknowledgement on the discussion of trilateral issues and issues of global concern reflects this unfolding link between the trio. China and Russia have also been cooperating on railway links and oil pipeline issues through Central Asia connecting the Caspian Sea with the Middle East and Europe. Russia has also shown keen interest on the Indo-Iran gas pipeline. The chances of the three countries joining hands on such common issues of mutual interest in future cannot be ruled out. American presence in Central Asia, Afghanistan and in former Soviet Republics like Georgia and Ukraine has accelerated the process.