Sun shines through the Great Wall

Despite Pakistan and Arunachal Pradesh, Chinese prez Hu Jintao is ready to do business with India, and this might mark a paradigm shift in South Asia

Pranay Sharma Delhi

In the end, Chinese President Hu Jintao's four-day visit to India remained what the Indian leadership wanted it to be: cool, efficient and officially successful. The lines, the shake of hands and the smiles, all seemed well-rehearsed and part of the script. There were no surprises and no attempts to surprise.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh did not land up at the airport to receive Hu as he did when US President George W. Bush and Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah visited India earlier this year. There was speculation that he would, but the prime minister decided to chair a cabinet meeting and kept himself busy with other “pressing” matters. “We don't want to hype our relation with China. We want it to be business like,” an official in South Block said.

In a period of one year, Singh and Hu have met five times. Most of the meetings were on the sidelines of other regional or multilateral meetings. But questions were still being asked as to why the prime minister could not be at the airport to receive the president of India’s biggest and most powerful neighbour. Besides, this was the first presidential visit from China in 10 years.

There must have been some thinking behind the decision to not be at the airport. The visit of the Saudi king took place after 27 years. Moreover, he was invited to be the chief guest for India’s Republic Day celebrations. As for Bush, he was going to offer the civilian nuclear deal—an agreement the UPA government was keen to have.

The two sides got around to signing all the agreements they had agreed to in the run-up to Hu’s visit. Yes, there is great potential for India and China to cooperate in a number of areas for mutual benefit. However, they have not yet reached that decisive stage. “Our relations are difficult and complex,” South Block mandarins admit. But they are quick to add, “The relations are also extremely important.”

For decades, Indian policy planners have been sharply divided on how to relate to China. Some look with envy at China’s phenomenal economic success and its steady rise on the world stage. Others feel trepidation and suspicion at Beijing’s growing military might and its strategy to strengthen ties with India’s neighbours in South Asia. China’s image keeps changing in the Indian political kaleidoscope.

There have been arguments in favour of establishing a policy to contain China. The improvement of ties with the US and other major powers in Asia is obviously linked to this. The proponents of this theory believe that since India and China, in the ultimate analysis, will end up as rivals, it would help Delhi to embark on a strategy that could check China’s rise. There are also those in the opposite camp, who look at China as a partner with whom India and some other big players could get together to act as a counter-balance to the American political, economic and military clout in the world. The sceptics are not limited to India. China has a fair share of them as well. Many Chinese policy-makers are still not sure about the extent to which China can trust India.

The fact remains that a serious ‘trust-deficit’ remains between the two sides. This came to the fore yet again during the Chinese president’s visit. Hu tried to convince Indian leaders that the “strategic partnership” was not due to any political exigency. The political leadership in Beijing sees a bright future where the two neighbours can not only gain from bilateral cooperation but even shape the destiny of Asia, and perhaps, also the world, to their mutual advantage.

This was Hu’s second visit to the country. He had come here in 1984 as the chairman of China’s Youth League and he remembers the people he met. He reiterated that good relations can’t be sustained unless a strong bond between the people is also established.

As per the strategic partnership agreement signed during Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s visit to India in April last year, the two sides have agreed on a ten-pronged strategy that would further strengthen ties. Altogether, 13 agreements were signed. They ranged from protection of investments coming from the Chinese and Indian sides in each other’s country, to cooperation in civil nuclear energy. A mechanism has been agreed upon, under which top leaders would meet regularly, if not annually. They have agreed to cooperate on the trans-border rivers and on enhancing border-trade points that could even be converted into transit points for tourism.

The two-way trade between India and China has already crossed the $22 billion mark; it is projected to reach $40 billion by 2010. There has been a lot of stress on increasing people-to-people contact and cultural exchanges. After 40 years of negotiations, India has even got back the property in Shanghai from where it ran its consulate. New consulates will also be opened in Kolkata and Guangzhou. The two leaders have urged the “special representatives” to hasten the process to find peaceful solutions to the boundary issue. “The agreements may not look very exciting individually, but taken together they are significant and show the movement forward,” a foreign ministry official said.

The agreements may look good on paper, but how close have India and China moved, realistically? South Block maintains that the relations have “matured”. Chinese officials point out that for the first time in China’s foreign policy, India has been put on the front burner. So why has India become so important on the Chinese foreign policy radar?

India’s growing ties with the US are a crucial factor. The Chinese leadership has always had the fear of being encircled by hostile countries. Hu’s overtures are to ensure Delhi remains neutral, if not overtly friendly, towards China. Asia-Pacific is the growth area of the future, and China wants to be the dominant power here. With Japan taking a hard line, the leadership in Beijing is worried over the developments that are taking place in its neighbourhood, starting from North Korea’s decision to openly go nuclear. As the smaller countries in the region are keen to see a bigger involvement by India, China is keen that Delhi should not become an adversary, but a partner. And if that is a tall order, then at least a neutral player.

So far, India has made all the right noises. It has reassured that it continues to believe in the “one-China” policy and its ties with Taipei remain where they were—on trade and economic cooperation alone. India has remained consistent even on its Tibet policy. It recognises the Tibetan Autonomous Region of China, but refuses to fold up the ‘Tibetan government in exile’ of the Dalai Lama.

However, on two difficult issues there seemed little progress—the boundary dispute and Pakistan. There is doubt whether Chinese Ambassador Sun Yuxi had shot off his mouth on Arunachal Pradesh. Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee made it clear that Arunachal Pradesh was not part of the talks, as it was an integral part of India. Attempts have since been made to give the impression that the ambassador’s comments were inadvertent. The fact is China has not given up its claim to Arunachal Pradesh. It has refused to open border trade posts there for fear that it might create a precedent like Sikkim and force Beijing to part with the 90,000-odd square kilometres of land that it claims is Chinese territory.

On Pakistan, China has made it clear that its cooperation with the country will only deepen. Although Hu agreed to revive the civilian nuclear cooperation with India, he has agreed to consolidate cooperation with Pakistan by building more nuclear reactors. He did not stop at that. China has agreed to strengthen Pakistan’s defence supplies by agreeing to give it Airborne Warning and Control Systems. It is now building special economic zones for Pakistan and helping to upgrade infrastructure, including that part of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) through which the Karakoram highway runs.

As for the future of Sino-Indian relations, Hu’s visit is one happy step forward in a complex relationship. All that is required now is flexibility, imagination and vision. And, of course, the will, from both countries, to do what they say.