The ‘PM’ Factor

With Manmohan Singh pushed to the wall and the Congress scared of facing mid-term polls, Left and UPA allies might pitch for the man who has repeatedly missed the top job by a whisker: Pranab Mukherjee

Hardnews Bureau Delhi

Communist Party of India's General Secretary, AB Bardhan, is a simple man who presumably hates keeping secrets. Quite expectedly, he is the first person to share with the media what transpires in many of the “secret” closed-door meetings between the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and the Left parties. Bardhan again cannot hold his confidence when it comes to revealing the trajectory of the Left's strategy.

During the two month long political crisis engendered by the resolve of the Left parties to withdraw support from the UPA government if it deigned to operationalise the civilian nuclear deal with the United States of America, the voluble Bardhan came out with a gem: Congress should do a Tony Blair on Manmohan Singh. His submission was that as the British Labour Party had eased out Blair as he was getting quite unpopular due to his close proximity to US President George W Bush and the Iraq occupation, Singh, too, should be replaced by the Congress president.

At the time when Bardhan made these suggestions, there were not many takers for this point of view in the Congress as Prime Minister Singh was flying high. In an exclusive media briefing to a Kolkata-based daily he had revealed his pique over the manner in which the Left was stopping the government from going ahead with the deal and he dared them to pull the plug from his government. His defiance was exemplified by his statement in case if the Left wanted to withdraw: “So be it” drew support from a section of the party that was clueless about the nuclear deal as well as the trenchant response of the communists. Their reason to support the prime minister was that the government cannot really run like this and it was time that the communists were dumped. “How long can we carry on like this? It is better that we go back to the people and seek a fresh mandate,” said a young MP from UP.

The government seemed to be heading inexorably towards a meltdown when Sonia Gandhi cut short her visit to South Africa and conveyed the message to the Left allies that the government would talk. Her intervention opened a window for negotiations with the Left, but it also contributed in devaluing the importance of the prime minister. The Congress president's mediation may not be a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, but it revealed a crack in the thinking within the Congress party and the government.

Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee was drafted to negotiate with the Left and try to make them see reason on the nuclear deal. His long years of working with the Left in West Bengal, his articulation and his ability to read and interpret the fine print of these dense and complex deals such as the civilian nuclear one were the reasons why he was fielded to take on the questions from the communists.

Discussions with the Left leaders like the recalcitrant CPM General Secretary, Prakash Karat, sensed the mood that the Congress was running scared and did not want an early election. Congress was blinking. In other words, Singh's bluster could not be backed by the party. “We are merely saying what the majority of the Congressmen want — no mid-term elections,” revealed a Congress leader.

As the meetings between the Left and UPA started over the implications of the Hyde Act on India, insidious suggestions began to flow from influential quarters that the face-off between the Left and the government was triggered by senior leaders within the Congress who were keen to see the back of the prime minister. “Karat was shown the 123 agreement. At that time he did not really object,” questioned a PMO source. “Even a newspaper that articulates their point of view praised the deal initially, so what happened suddenly,” this source wondered. (The newspaper later backtracked.)

Suggestions of a conspiracy to first mar the deal and later to remove the prime minister began to float in the corridors of power. It was said that as the Left parties had tasted blood after they managed to get their nominee appointed as the vice-president in the form of Hamid Ansari, they were going in for higher stakes. The Left strategy was that if they remained steadfast to their conviction and stand then they will be able to achieve their objective: Stopping the deal, and later, to get a new prime minister appointed in Singh's place.

And they had a person in mind who could help achieve all these objectives and more: Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee.

It is not that Mukherjee has not nursed ambitions of becoming the prime minister. When Indira Gandhi died he was number two in the government and thought that he would automatically take over from her. Rajiv Gandhi and his handlers had other ideas and they not only tripped him, but drove him out of the party. When the Congress came to power as part of the UPA, Mukherjee had legitimate aspirations of becoming the prime minister in the event of Sonia Gandhi refusing to take office, but again, his claims were overlooked when Manmohan Singh was given the top job. His appointment rubbed salt on his injuries as Singh was Mukherjee's advisor and he did not fancy the idea of reporting to him. The Congress president assuaged his hurt ego when he was appointed the leader of the Lok Sabha, but this was still not the real thing.

Mukherjee was also prevented from becoming the president by the Congress leadership after Abdul J Kalaam's term came to an end, even when he enjoyed support from the Left and other parties. “The Congress president does not trust him,” is the usual refrain that is heard inside party circles. One of the reason for the appointment of Rahul Gandhi was to establish the line of succession in the Congress, claimed a senior Congress source. “The Congress chief did not want any confusion about who will take over the government if Manmohan Singh chose to resign in a huff,” claimed this source.

It is because of this reason that Mukherjee's name is being taken in Congress party circles as the person who is building a coalition within the UPA and outside to usher decisive change at the top. Besides, he is known to be close to most big corporate houses and has set up a fine working relationship with the US also, as exemplified by the defence treaty signed in 2005 when he was defence minister. His detractors, and there are many who surround the Congress president, claim that he has assured the Left parties that he would reconsider the nuclear deal if he is in a position to take that decision. In all his interactions with the Left leaders he has tried to drive home the point that elections would not help anyone and there was a possibility of another hung house where, again, Congress and Left parties may have to work together.

Sonia Gandhi, who is in a difficult position, seems to agree with this view, but does not enjoy great comfort dealing with Mukherjee. During a core group meeting of the Congress, she intervened to scotch an impression that the party was in a good position to win many seats if the elections were held in December-January — as it was hoped earlier. She wanted to move slowly and carefully and await the outcome of the crucial Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh elections, before allowing the government to operationalise the deal. Her response was also nuanced by the volte face by other UPA allies who made it clear that they did not want the government to go on the issue of the nuclear deal.

She made her position clear during a summit organised by a newspaper group where she said that elections would take place on time in 2009. Singh also stated categorically that there was life beyond the nuclear deal. This flip-flop has made the prime minister look a bit shaky and left an impression that he is not the best person to politically sell the nuclear deal and also save the government from collapsing.

Left leaders have been mentioning that Mukherjee would be a better bet to do that, much to the embarrassment of the foreign minister, who does not want to create an impression that he has anything to do with it. When a scribe informed him that a senior CPM leader was mentioning his name as the next prime minister, he pleaded with him that he should go back to the communist leader and tell him to stop selling his name. Despite his objections, there is little let up in the 'draft Pranab Mukherjee as the PM' campaign. A senior editor close to CPM even told a channel that the Congress would be better off with Mukherjee at the helm.

Supporters of the Congress president and Singh claim that Mukherjee has networked with all the UPA allies and others in the opposition and he may be the choice of all of them if such circumstances are created where the fall of the government seems imminent and there is a move to save the house. Sonia Gandhi's firm support for Singh has kept these maneuvers at bay, but many of her close supporters are keen to put Mukherjee in his place. This political mood resembles the time when VP Singh and HN Bahuguna were forced out of the party. By the look of it, they may not succeed in their endeavors as the Congress of 2007 is not the Congress of the 1980s, but a sum total of how its allies perceive it.