Interesting times ahead?

The Congress will come out short by a couple of dozens in the next Lok Sabha. And the BJP's numbers are hardly likely to accrete: the accretion will take place with the jetsam and flotsam of our politics

Mohan Guruswamy Delhi

In Manmohan Singh we have had a prime minister who has restored to that office the respect for integrity it commanded when Jawaharlal Nehru was the prime minister. But in him we have also a prime minister as lacking in the right stuff as Inder Gujral. Both were accidental prime ministers. And when the history of that office is written they will be deemed as incidental. That is Manmohan Singh's tragedy, because the nation expected so much from him and got a damp squib in return.

Anyway I see it, the Congress is not going to 'enjoy' power after the next Lok Sabha elections, whenever that may be: December, March or May. And that won't be because of the 123 deal either. This is not an election winning or losing valence issue. The BJP is as wrong about this one as it was on the Kanchi Shankaracharya's arrest for an alleged murder. The irony of the 123 deal is      that if Manmohan Singh had called the communist bluff he would have come out looking like a decisive leader. 

This does not mean 123 is dead either. In all likelihood Manmohan Singh will insist upon it, but the thematic apperception of him will still be of a weak and vacillating tired old man. In a country where nearly 70 per cent of the population is below 30, this is an absolute 'no no' for political marketing. In any case, he is now past 75 and its time to go. Defeat in the next elections will be the best thing that could have happened to the two Gandhis. The dowager and the princeling.

You may well ask as to why I think the Congress will lose when the 123 deal won't figure in the debates or more really the gali galoch that passes off for debate? That's because the Congress or its allies will get badly hammered in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar, and lose some in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Assam. The gains that it might make in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa will not be large enough to offset the losses. The gains the Congress may make in West Bengal and Kerala will not affect its overall position as the Left's political destiny is to be the 'attack dog' that bares its fangs at the BJP.

Lalu Yadav's RJD's position is even worse. It does not even have the option of flirting with the other regional parties. As for the other Congress allies, they can easily flirt between it and the BJP and UNPA. The DMK is a great example of this ideological flexibility. It has been in every government that came after Narasimha Rao's government and that's been for quite some time now. It's learnt how to milk the roads and telecom ministries and that's all they are now interested in.

So the Congress, in all likelihood, will come out short by a couple of dozens atleast than what it has now, and even ever loyal-to-the-family Pratibha Patil will be hard pressed to call upon it to attempt forming a government first. The BJP's numbers in the next Lok Sabha are hardly likely to accrete. The accretion will take place with the jetsam and flotsam of our politics.

However, despite HD Deve Gowda's favourite nadi's prophecy, we should expect another dark horse. After the latest turnabout he would be lucky to hold his seat to the Lok Sabha. So is it maybe Nitish Kumar? Or maybe Chandrababu Naidu? But not Mayawati as long as Amar Singh matters to Mulayam Singh.