Interesting times ahead?

The Congress will come out short by a couple of dozens in the next Lok Sabha. And the BJP's numbers are hardly likely to accrete: the accretion will take place with the jetsam and flotsam of our politics

Mohan Guruswamy Delhi

In Manmohan Singh we have had a prime minister who has restored to that office the respect for integrity it commanded when Jawaharlal Nehru was the prime minister. But in him we have also a prime minister as lacking in the right stuff as Inder Gujral. Both were accidental prime ministers. And when the history of that office is written they will be deemed as incidental. That is Manmohan Singh's tragedy, because the nation expected so much from him and got a damp squib in return.

Anyway I see it, the Congress is not going to 'enjoy' power after the next Lok Sabha elections, whenever that may be: December, March or May. And that won't be because of the 123 deal either. This is not an election winning or losing valence issue. The BJP is as wrong about this one as it was on the Kanchi Shankaracharya's arrest for an alleged murder. The irony of the 123 deal is      that if Manmohan Singh had called the communist bluff he would have come out looking like a decisive leader. 

This does not mean 123 is dead either. In all likelihood Manmohan Singh will insist upon it, but the thematic apperception of him will still be of a weak and vacillating tired old man. In a country where nearly 70 per cent of the population is below 30, this is an absolute 'no no' for political marketing. In any case, he is now past 75 and its time to go. Defeat in the next elections will be the best thing that could have happened to the two Gandhis. The dowager and the princeling.

You may well ask as to why I think the Congress will lose when the 123 deal won't figure in the debates or more really the gali galoch that passes off for debate? That's because the Congress or its allies will get badly hammered in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar, and lose some in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Assam. The gains that it might make in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa will not be large enough to offset the losses. The gains the Congress may make in West Bengal and Kerala will not affect its overall position as the Left's political destiny is to be the 'attack dog' that bares its fangs at the BJP.

Lalu Yadav's RJD's position is even worse. It does not even have the option of flirting with the other regional parties. As for the other Congress allies, they can easily flirt between it and the BJP and UNPA. The DMK is a great example of this ideological flexibility. It has been in every government that came after Narasimha Rao's government and that's been for quite some time now. It's learnt how to milk the roads and telecom ministries and that's all they are now interested in.

So the Congress, in all likelihood, will come out short by a couple of dozens atleast than what it has now, and even ever loyal-to-the-family Pratibha Patil will be hard pressed to call upon it to attempt forming a government first. The BJP's numbers in the next Lok Sabha are hardly likely to accrete. The accretion will take place with the jetsam and flotsam of our politics.

However, despite HD Deve Gowda's favourite nadi's prophecy, we should expect another dark horse. After the latest turnabout he would be lucky to hold his seat to the Lok Sabha. So is it maybe Nitish Kumar? Or maybe Chandrababu Naidu? But not Mayawati as long as Amar Singh matters to Mulayam Singh.

We are going to live in very interesting times. When the Chinese say, “may you live in interesting times” it is meant as a curse. It might become just that in India tomorrow. While all this happens the best thing that could happen to the Congress and BJP will be to hope that the UNPA will turn to the other for outside the government support. I will come back to explain this a little later.

Let's look at another scenario first. If by some quirk of fate a modestly diminished Congress were called upon to form the government, the party will in all likelihood be forced to turn to its first and only family for formal leadership. Too many knives will be out for Manmohan Singh for precipitating the crisis in the first place and he will not survive the inevitable bloodletting that will follow. Sonia Gandhi's citizenship is not in question, but her nationality will be. You can trust the BJP, BSP, SP, and TDP to make this an issue and take it to the streets.

The princeling will be considered to be still too young and inexperienced to take the big job. Which is true. But if by some quirk of fate this happens it won't last for too long. Inevitably, sheer ineptitude that will be on display will foreclose otherwise good future prospects. I am not saying that he is incapable. I don't know. But one thing I know is that the top job in India needs some preparation and from what we have seen and heard so far prepared he is not.

Now let's take a look at what might happen to the BJP. After losses in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and even Gujarat, the BJP can at best strive to be the bridesmaid. Many of its second rung and second-class leaders, particularly the ones with home loans to pay off like Yashwant Sinha, will be quite eager to settle for even this. And LK Advani's legion of admirers can only wring their hands and wonder about the 'best prime minister' India never had. He is now 80 and even Rahul Dravid has more time left in cricket than he has in politics. Advani played loyal vice-captain to Atal Behari Vajpayee for far too long and that ungrateful man still dreams of returning to centre-stage when he is awake.

The BJP's real problem is not even the somnambulatory former prime minister but the empty leadership ladder after Advani. The second rung is mostly bereft of class and character. The BJP's Brahmins savaged its best second rung prospect in years, Kalyan Singh, and now he is too damaged to be of any good to it. Hence like Advani who played second fiddle to Vajpayee for so long, the BJP will settle for playing second fiddle to Amar Singh and gang or Mayawati and gang. It just has too many guys with home loans to pay off!

This is the Congress party's best hope. It must hope that the BJP's second rung will get gainfully employed doing what they do best and it gets the dominant opposition space. This will be a great learning experience for a prime ministerial aspirant like Rahul Gandhi. He will be able to learn about India's real problems and the reality of his party. Besides, he will learn to be deft with the thrusts and cuts of politics, and also about the ebbs and flows of public moods that could lead to greatness. Indeed, he may entirely busy himself with things like changing 24, Akbar Road lighting to CFL. But he also has a more immediate hurdle to cross. He must win from Rae Bareilly first. You can become prime minister by not even contesting elections but to be leader of the opposition you need to be elected to the Lok Sabha.