Bihar's Saddam girding for battle

In the coming Assembly elections, Lalu Prasad Yadav is preparing to do battle in Bihar, even as Bihar prepares to do battle with him

Ranjit Bhushan Patna

The only aspect troubling Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) strongman and Union Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav days before his fourth attempt to form the government in Bihar are the opinion polls. All of them, varying only in the details, have predicted a victory for him, but after the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) 2004 experience with opinion polls, he isn't counting on psephology.

"As a rule, I do not take these opinions seriously," Lalu tells a group of journalists on the lush, sprawling lawns at Patna's 5 Deshratna Marg, the official abode of the RJD big boss, which is connected to adjacent 10 Anne Marg, the official residence of the Bihar chief minister, who happens to be his wife.

But this is where the comparison with the NDA's luck ends. Mobilising on a mammoth political scale, the RJD chief is preparing for battle against the bitterest of his bitter enemies, the NDA and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) Dalit leader and Union Minister for Chemicals and Fertilisers Ram Vilas Paswan, a rising challenger from Lalu's Jaiprakash Narayan agitation days.

This has created a fractured electorate that has few parallels on the contemporary Indian political scene. Lalu is contesting against the NDA, which, in turn, is fighting Paswan. While Paswan is an ally of the Congress at the Centre, he is opposed to Lalu, a Congress ally in the state. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)), on its part, doesn't know quite who to back, the ruling RJD, the Congress or Paswan. Add to this the extremist CPI (Marxist-Leninist)'s electoral ambitions and the motley ensemble is complete.

In terms of self-arrogated power, Lalu Yadav is Bihar's Saddam Hussain. His posters stare out of billboards; his election symbol, the lantern, graces official cars. Since he came to power in 1990, a generation of Biharis has known no other political leader. Here, you are either with him or against him. His interviews and fulminations are TV staple. His views are dissected every day, his every move in Patna televised live: a more public display of administration can't be found anywhere else in the country. His jokes and homilies have the ring of peasant forthrightness. His mocking and abrasive style has won him as many friends as enemies. And he wins most elections.

Since being routed in the 1999 general elections by a united Opposition, Lalu's main political success has been in keeping his enemies unhappily divided. Two weeks ago when his main rivals, Paswan and Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) leader Nitish Kumar were gingerly probing a tie-up for the Assembly elections, Lalu shot off a statement naming Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) honcho Lal Krishna Advani as the man behind the move. Within minutes, the putative alliance flamed out. Two years ago, Lalu broke the Samata Party; he has busted the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), he has toyed around with the BJP and, despite his strong support Sonia Gandhi, he plays truant with the Congress with impunity.

Not that he is unaware of the pitfalls of grandstanding. In 1995, he won the state Assembly by his biggest-ever margin, 164 seats of a total 324 (undivided Bihar). In 2000, his tally came down to 122-odd. In the coming elections, fighting a massive anti-incumbency, it is expected to drop further. But can it slide enough to keep Lalu out of power?