Mamata's meltdown

2005: the Trinamool Congress is at a crossroads as it prepares to reassess its strategies and alliances

Ashish Biswas Kolkata

In recent years, a subtle change has occurred in the Mamata Banerjee persona: once, warts and all, she was the darling of the harried Bengali middle class; but, realising that political fulfilment lay elsewhere, she has shifted her sights on the poor. The problem is that the West Bengal media has made a virtue out of obsessing about middle class concerns, and she is getting less ink and footage. But the moot question is: in the midst of this makeover, what remains of her political relevance?

Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress (TC) have been hibernating since their disastrous show in the 2001 State Assembly elections. This month, the TC party conference is being held in Midnapore. Banerjee's new slogan is, "Focus on 2006", when Assembly polls will again be due. (Her 2001 slogan was "Now or never" — and it turned out to "Not now".)

The TC is not poised to quit the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) yet, and Banerjee has made it clear that joining, or having any understanding with, the Congress is not on the cards. Her party will continue on its own way, treating the coming Kolkata Corporation polls and the elections to 80 other civic bodies as a dress rehearsal for the 2006 showdown.

As things stand, 2005 doesn't show promise of a sudden leap forward for either Banerjee or the TC, despite the inevitable clout as the only party opposing the ruling Marxists. What hampers both leader and party though are not the Marxists, but Banerjee's own now-stop-now-start working style.

The confusion is reflected in senior TC leaders like Saugata Ray and Pankaj Banerjee. Ray told Hardnews," It is not that the TC, contrary to general impressions, does not exist beyond Kolkata and South Bengal. But yes, we could certainly do better with sustained agitations at the local grassroots level."

More diplomatic, Pankaj Banerjee says, "You must admit that our fortunes may have declined, but we are still the only ones protesting on issues on the streets."

Other leaders are more forthcoming. "Mamata Banerjee has no taste for sustained political action of any kind," says a TC youth leader. "Thus, we have people supporting us and then feeling let down after the elections. We have party offices and office-bearers in South Bengal without any programmes, mainly because they receive no instructions from the leader. You cannot fight the Marxists with this approach."

Prior to the 2001 polls in Midnapore, the TC had a sizable base fighting the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in a bitter war of attrition, a tactic that won the party the Panskura Lok Sabha seat. Yet, when the CPI (M) stepped up pressure after the 2001 Assembly polls, local TC leaders fled, deserting their flock and leaving them demoralised. Banerjee hardly ever visited her former stronghold, forcing her followers to join the Left Front. In 2001, in a panic reaction to the Tehelka tape revelations, she consulted no one prior to pulling out of the NDA government. Then, following her rout at the polls, she retreated deeper into her shell, only calling occasional bandhs that evoked further derision and contempt.

Hers is a case of a leader with streetfighter instincts rising from a humble lower-middle class background to become the country's railways minister — and then frittered it all away because of whimsicality and tantrums. Between 1999 and 2004, the TC's Lok Sabha seats dwindled from nine to two. Is it any wonder that many regard Banerjee as a spent force?

Nonetheless, for all their scathing attacks, CPI (M) leaders do not treat her lightly. "No matter how ridiculous she may look, she still remains the focus of anti-Left opposition in the state," admits a CPI (M) state committee leader who dismisses the state Congress as "manageable".

With the polls not too far away, Banerjee has to decide whether her party should quit the NDA, and either forge an electoral understanding with the ruling Congress or merge with it. The TC is divided on the issue.