Teeth of the dragon

With China's growing clout as a superpower, no country — not even the US — can help Taiwan in its quest for independence from the mainland

Vishal Bhargava Mumbai

We can do without Taiwan for the time being, and let it come after 100 years…why is there a need to be in such great haste? Chinese communist leader Mao Zedong, 1973

The Chinese government could do with a reminder of the above statement, issued by Mao Zedong when he was asked whether unification with Taiwan could be peaceful. Ever since commerce lawyer-turned-president of Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian, has been at the helm of affairs, claims of independence have been ringing like a gong through China's ears, always kept close to the ground. This straightforwardness riles China, which has unambiguously suggested that it would be prepared to launch a military attack if the feisty democratic island ever declares statehood.

Chen has not blinked at China's threats. His political campaign for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has continuously stressed on issues of independence, a referendum for a new constitution in 2006, as well as calling on state-controlled enterprises to use "Taiwan" in their names rather than "China". For China, deep historical roots as well as national pride are on the line. When Mao Zedong came to power in 1949, he promised the unification of "lost" territories, which included states like Tibet, Mongolia, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, under a central government. Today, only Taiwan remains cocking a snook at Mao's vow.

Only a democratic environment in China can attract Taiwan to be a part of it — this is one message has still not been sent. Even though the DPP failed to secure a majority in the December 2004 elections, China — justifiably — believes that by the end of 2008 (when his term ends) Chen is likely to declare statehood. To compound the desire for Taiwan to go independent from China, there have been innumerable cases of human rights violations as well as a lack of free media support in China. The Chinese government continues to suppress dissenting opinions and maintains a political vice-grip over the legal system.

Although local surveys estimate that more than 60 per cent of Taiwanese are with Chen in his ambition for Taiwan's independence, few countries are in a position to aid and support Taiwan. The primary reason is the growing economic clout of the Peoples' Republic of China, which has a significant, and galloping, share in the global economic growth.

Further, increased prospects for a floating Chinese currency are fueling capital inflows. While the Hong Kong dollar and the Chinese yuan renminbi are tied to the US dollar, there is widespread expectation that Chinese authorities will eventually permit the renminbi to float in world currency markets. Due to the US' immense balance of trade deficit with China, a free-floating renminbi is likely to appreciate sharply against the US dollar. This has led to multibillion-dollar capital inflows into China and Chinese shares. This has deep economic as well as political compulsions for the US.

The Peoples' Republic of China has managed to block Taiwan from having any official diplomatic ties with the major countries of the world. Currently, Taiwan has ties with a paltry 18 countries (minor nations that are granted aid by Taiwan). In fact, a prerequisite for any nation doing business with or in China is the plaintiff nation's denunciation of Taiwan as well as the removal of its embassy from Taiwan. China, being the most bellicose and fastest-moving economy of the lot, manages to compel countries to meet its conditions on major issues with Taiwan. The Peoples' Republic has also consistently attempted to block a seat for Taiwan at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), through its veto right (a right that China secured for its help in World War II).

Thus, although the US, which has strong and rapidly changing dynamic economic relations with China, has pledged (under the Taiwan Relations Act) to defend Taiwan in the event of a military attack by the PRC, it is likely to pressure Taiwanese President Chen to reduce the intensity of his campaign for his country's independence. China is, after all, a superpower of such magnitude that not even the US can challenge it on the basis of its own principles — democracy and the right to freedom.