Crucible of Calamity

Bangladesh, long battered by cyclones that have killed tens of thousands, has had its first disaster-free decade in centuries. The region, and the world, can learn from its early warning system

Afsan Chowdhury Dhaka

In Bangladesh, the recent tsunami had an also-ran effect — it drowned a few holidaymakers in a coastal resort called Kuakata, but the mishap made little news, just because it was so unexpectedly benign: there was surprise that the sea had spared Bangladesh, which has often lost tens of thousands to ruthless seas.

The first recorded cyclone was in 1822, with an estimated 40,000 deaths. Another in 1876 killed 100,000, while the 1898 cyclone reportedly killed 175,000. This gory roll call peaked in 1970, when an estimated 300,000 people perished in the coastal zones, with storm surges cited as high as nine metres and gales with speeds of more than 225 kmph.

As a response to international calls, in 1970 the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution requesting the Federation of Red Crosses to help set up a cyclone protection system, the result of which is the Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP), which has become the focus of some attention today.

After the country's independence in December 1971, several relatively small cyclones hit Bangladesh; but, in April 1991, a monster cyclone devastated the coast, killing approximately 70,000 people. The cyclone preparedness system has worked much more efficiently since that eye-opening catastrophe — the first decade has passed, in centuries, without any cyclone catastrophes. Says Sayeedur Rahman, one of the top disaster experts of Bangladesh, "Warning, preparedness and action have all been high, so the death toll has been low. Most importantly, this is based on public participation and that's what makes it work so well."

Following the recent Asian tsunami, the Bangladesh cyclone preparedness programme has been held up as a global model. Eva Von Oetreich, head of Disaster Preparedness and Response of the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies says that the model of an early warning and response system "didn't come from a high-tech industrialised country but [from] Bangladesh."

While a cyclone does offer more time as it builds over days before striking — unlike an earthquake-driven tsunami — warning and preparation definitely can make a huge difference, as the Bangladesh experience with cyclones has shown.

"In April 1991, we heard the warnings for several days, but we just laughed it away. Previous warnings proved false and 1970 was forgotten and we were caught unprepared,"says Abdul Jalil, who now works in community awareness programmes run by several non-governmental organisations (NGOs).

That work is the prime activity of the Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) of the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society, run by the government as an autonomous outfit. Supported by various ministries and the international family of the Red Crosses and Leagues, it also accesses resources — human, monetary and material — at the community level. Also excellent is its linkage with NGOs, who also run their own cyclone preparedness programmes.

Over the years, the CPP's reputation has grown, especially because of the role of its approximately 34,000 volunteers, including 5,500 female volunteers who patrol the coastal areas, often on foot, to warn people, help them evacuate, and also help with post-disaster work.

"The volunteers have saved millions of lives over the years through their work," says Abdus Sattar, deputy director of the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS). "They have died in the call of duty and are the heroes of our battle against cyclones."

Cyclone warnings are received via satellite at the Meteorological Department's Office in Dhaka and passed on to the CPP headquarters, which then sends it by high-frequency radio to the six zonal and more than 30 sub-district level offices. They in turn pass it to the Union — lowest local government unit, comprising several clusters of villages — using very high

frequency (VHF) radio. Where no radio exists, a messenger is dispatched. The Union then contacts the Units located at the village level, from where the volunteers fan out with loud-hailers on cycle or on foot. They also listen to national radio broadcasts to keep track of the storm's progress. Some cyclone shelters also have radio facilities, and with the volunteers help with evacuation before with and rescue and relief work after the cyclone has passed. There are 149 cyclone shelters but the need is felt for many more.

Bangladesh is vulnerable to many disasters, apart from cyclones. It is very earthquake-prone and is literally waiting for the "big one"along with Nepal and the Indian Northeast. Unplanned and overpopulated Dhaka has an extremely high possibility of experiencing another earthquake like the one that nearly crushed it a century ago. Measures to meet this probable crisis are, at best, nominal, although the military has been recently involved and some UN agencies are investing in contingency planning.

Once a global model of access to safe water through tubewells, which reached more than 90 per cent of the population, Bangladesh now has the world's worst case of arsenic contamination of groundwater, with 30 per cent of the drinking water supply chain contaminated. "Every tubewell sunk could well be bringing life after a disaster to the affected, and poison soon after," says Nayeem Wahra of the Disaster Forum, an activist outfit. "What you have delivered may kill in the long run." Arsenic has entered the food chain and the level is rising in cereals. Described as the "world's worst-ever public health crisis," mitigation measures are not considered adequate.

Floods are, of course, the perennial bane, but Shamshuddin Ahmed, UNICEF's consultant on public affairs, thinks that "floods are not disasters. Cyclones or earthquakes are, because they are unstoppable, unpredictable and cause harm to life. It doesn't allow people to cope with it. Floods should be managed through planning and policy."

It means integrating development and disaster instead of treating both in isolation. "Disaster affects the poor most, so disasters are also about poverty. Unless economic development takes place, disaster management will be impossible," says Nayeem Wahra, who is part of several South Asian disaster mitigation networks. But their efforts to initiate a regional disaster management plan have met with almost no response, including from the country that matters, India. "Disaster management has to be regional and international. Disasters don't carry passports."

The river-linking project is expected to have a harsh effect on Bangladesh, much worse than the Farakka Barrage, which dried up the river Padma and caused heavy salinity in the southwestern zone. Many fear that this will have a grave effect on politics, possibly triggering intense anti-Indian militancy and instability in the region as a whole.

But the worst disaster is already on — and that is climate change. Bangladesh is expected to be the worst hit non-island nation: as much as one-third of the country may go under over the next few decades. "It will affect the coast, where livelihoods will be lost, homes will disappear and cause intolerable levels of misery and mass migration" says Dr Ahsanuddin of the Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP). "Sweet water is already nearly gone, so industrial investment has disappeared. Once livelihood goes, what else can these people do except move?" Global warming has led to drowning coasts, more frequent and prolonged flooding, and far more frequent cyclones as well.

Meanwhile, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has launched a Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme to assist the government. It's a well-intentioned effort but considered inadequate in the context of the enormity of what Bangladesh faces. However, one positive development is that due to large-scale presence of NGOs, public involvement at the grassroots and high media attention, corruption has been dramatically reduced.

"NGOs have played a major role in ensuring public participation, bringing in new technology and developing community-based contingency plans. Their influence in shifting from relief supply to the disaster management approach is very significant," says Dr Mushtaque Chowdhury, deputy executive director of the Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC), an NGO, which born in Bangladesh. The government and the NGOs, despite some competition and mutual disdain, have cooperated well in this sector. NGOs like BRAC are big enough to mount operations on their own — often before the government can act — as it did to tackle the prolonged floods of 2004. "People always take care of themselves first," says Samar Roy, a journalist who covered the last floods extensively. "They don't wait for anyone, including NGOs."

The reality is that we can mobilise people to take shelter before cyclone strikes but we have resources to build only 149 cyclone shelters. We need many more but do not have enough monies. We can mobilise and move people, but what about the next step?" asks Abdus Sattar.

Sayeedur Rahman is also direct. "Cyclone preparedness is our great success but we have many other disasters affecting us at any moment," he says. "We are a model because we have spent very little to save many lives threatened by cyclones, but in many cases we need money and we don't get that. Nor does any other poor country."

All disasters are global, in one way or another, but the interests of the rich world in the future of the developing world is small, and declining. Their unwillingness to support the vulnerable is probably the biggest disaster of them all.

Afsan Chowdhury is a journalist and development activist