A sin called hubris

Neglect, arrogance and nepotism — the three main causes of Lalu Prasad Yadav's coming apart in Bihar

Ranjit Bhushan Delhi

February 27 was a shocker of a Sunday. Not because the Congress swept Haryana, and the Jharkhand Assembly election results hung in the balance, but because the might of Lalu Prasad Yadav was humbled at the hustings in Bihar. In a reversal of fortune for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which had held the state in thrall for 15 long years, the party has won 83 seats in a 243-seat House, pathetic by earlier standards. A formidable Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) combine that Lalu had nurtured for over a decade deserted him at the critical moment. In the end, it needed a demure intervention by Congress president Sonia Gandhi to sort out the slugfest between her two principal allies in Bihar, Lalu and his bete noire, the Lok Janshakti Party's (LJP) Ram Vilas Paswan.

The two main beneficiaries of the division of votes included Paswan and the more or less comatose National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is in Bihar a medley of former socialists and urban Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders. In the event of an emerging deadlock, political parties favoured the imposition of President's Rule. Once more, the Constitution may have to intervene to set up a state government.

In a badly hung House in which 122 seats are required to form the government, it isn't clear whether even Central intervention can suffice. So, while Paswan is waxing eloquent about not helping either the BJP or the RJD, he is under considerable pressure from his newly-elected 30 LJP legislators to form a government with the help of the Janata Dal (United) and the outside support of the BJP. He is being hailed as "kingmaker", and no kingmaker's troubles have ever been ordinary. Given his ideology and mandate, even seeking the outside help of the BJP is a questionable tactic. Nonetheless, Paswan cannot afford to ignore upper-caste sentiments: about 16 of his 30 winning legislators are Rajputs and Bhumihars, who have no problem at all with taking BJP support.

"The vote is against Lalu, and all those who have got votes in the name of finishing goonda raj have a commitment to the people," JD (U) leader Nitish Kumar said in an obvious attempt to woo Paswan, an estranged erstwhile ally. Paswan is playing hard to get to the hilt. "I am neither going to support the RJD nor the NDA. I said that earlier and I am saying it now," Paswan asserted at a press briefing in Patna. The next day, at a meeting with Sonia Gandhi in Delhi, he iterated his stand.

The story of the recent Bihar elections is that of the collapse of Lalu's thundering caste alliance, one of the strongest in modern Indian history. For about 15 years, the two powerful combinations, the Yadavs and the Muslims, along with other influential segments of society, backed the RJD leader to the hilt. But, as development increasingly took a backseat and with stories of personal arrogance abounding, Lalu inched away from his constituency. Even though his secular credentials remain intact, they may not have been enough, as he is now painfully learning.