Destabilising the UPA

Stunned into vindictiveness by a punitive electorate, Bihar's buffoon-strongman has turned on the UPA, in general, and the Congress, in particular, and could actually force a Cabinet reshuffle at the Centre

A Special Correspondent Delhi

IA few days before the Bihar election results were declared, Union Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav sat in his office in Parliament and spewed venom at the Congress leadership. He had sensed his impending debacle and was blaming the Congress leadership for two-timing him. If Lalu's diatribe against Congress leaders such as Arjun Singh and Makhan Lal Fotedar is anything to go by, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have their work cut out to ensure that the Central government doesn't rock.

The nature of Bihar's verdict renders it impossible to form a government in Patna by March 8, the day the Assembly has to be constituted, or till the key players and parties are ready to make compromises. Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) leader Ram Vilas Paswan, with 29 seats in the Assembly, holds the key. Other contenders — Lalu's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal (United) — do not have the numbers to form the government on their own.

Lalu has been inconsolable after the defeat, holding Congress president Sonia Gandhi responsible for blowing his chances. He is trying to deflect media analysis about his defeat due to his non-performance in his 15 years in power to how the Congress reneged on "the coalition dharma" in Bihar. The Congress had contested 80-odd seats, with overlapping alliances with the RJD and the LJP.

So, a "hurt" Lalu will insist that the Congress behave and look after his interests. And Lalu has clout: 21 Members of Parliament and important participation in the UPA coalition.

He will expect the Congress to help him form the state government, and if that does not happen, he would prefer President's Rule in the state. President's Rule would help him control the levers of the state sitting in Rail Bhavan in New Delhi.

If that does not happen, and Lalu is forced to relinquish the Bihar chief ministership to someone else in his party or — horror of horrors! — outside, then he would like to be mollified by the UPA bosses. Any which way one looks at it, the prime minister would be forced to reshuffle his Cabinet, opening a Pandora's Box of new problems.

There are also suggestions that Paswan be offered the railway ministry in exchange for his party supporting Lalu's government in Patna. It's an unlikely scenario — Paswan can reconcile to Lalu or his wife, Rabri Devi, as Bihar chief minister only at his own peril. Paswan would rather go with the Samata Party's Nitish Kumar and the JD (U).

But Lalu's pique matters: UPA leaders are preparing for the worst case scenario if he goes ape. "No one needs Lalu in the government," confided a Left leader. "If he wants to leave, he is free to go. The UPA has the numbers." He added that Lalu would have to think many times before leaving the UPA — he has too many legal demons sitting on his shoulder.

(In fact, another of Lalu's major grievances against the UPA government was that it didn't help him with his court cases. His pique was visible when Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati managed to get relief from the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in the Taj corridor case. The Supreme Court later questioned that relief. Lalu's supporters claim that save for help in some income tax-related cases, the RJD boss has had to fend for himself.) 

The fact of Lalu's discomfiture, if he is not mollified sufficiently and ASAP, could also give a fillip to the efforts of George Fernandes to cobble together a non-Congress-non-Bharatiya Janata Party political formation to come to power. Last heard, Fernandes was in close touch with everyone who doesn't like Sonia Gandhi and is feeling lost in the present dispensation. And sources close to people trying to glue together this ragtag alliance say that the support they already have could surprise the Congress.

Another cause for worry for the Congress is the manner in which the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham (DMK) has gone into threat mode. The DMK has been dismayed over the fact that Congressman and Union Minister of State for Commerce and Industries E V K S Elangovan called DMK leader Karunandhi a slew of names. The DMK's anger was spurred after Lalu began to blame the Congress for his defeat in Bihar. It will be interesting to watch how the maladroit Congress leadership manages to walk through this minefield and arrive beyond the Bihar mess in an area of relative calm.