Day-dreaming Maya

The social engineering model of UP cannot work everywhere. Mayawati cannot even play spoiler in Gujarat

Khalid Akhter Delhi

As the dates for Gujarat to decide the political fate of Narendra Modi through the battle of ballot boxes are nearing, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), enthused by its poll victory in Uttar Pradesh, may be toying with the idea of upsetting the apple cart of both the BJP and Congress in Gujarat. However, leaders of the ruling and opposition parties strongly believe that Mayawati stands no chance, whatsoever, to cut into their base during the assembly elections due in December this year. The Gujarat elections are significant as they will give her an opportunity to enlarge her sphere of influence beyond UP and emerge as a national leader and BSP as a national party. With this target in mind, Mayawati has decided to field candidates in all the 182 constituencies in Gujarat.

She will try the same 'social engineering' strategy used in UP elections, sewing up a rainbow coalition, particularly with the Brahmins and Muslims.  With this coalition in mind, the BSP has geared up to use Brahmin leaders to spearhead the campaign. Earlier, the party had roped in BJP rebel Nalin Bhatt, a Brahmin. In its attempt to prove its strength, the BSP has planned a 'record breaking' rally at Shivaji Park in Mumbai on November 25. The BSP supremo is hoping that her party will change the usual bipolar fight to a three-cornered one.

As is well known, Mayawati has no scruples or ethical paradigm. She campaigned for Narendra Modi in the elections of 2002 after the Gujarat carnage when she was the chief minister of UP backed by the BJP. This time around she is targeting Modi. Witness the BSP slogan: Haathi nahi gajraj hai, Modi ka yamraj hai. (It is not an elephant; it's a messenger of Modi's death). The blue elephant is BSP's electoral symbol.

Despite the loud claims of BSP leaders of replicating behenji's UP model of 'sarvajan' vote-bank in Gujarat, BJP and opposition leaders don't see much hope for the elephant in the electoral battle of Gujarat. According to Gujarat BJP spokesperson Vijay Rupani, the UP polls were held in a completely different scenario: the people were fed up with Mulayam Singh's 'jungle raj'. So they voted him out and backed the BSP. It's a different situation in Gujarat where Modi still holds the sway over huge chunk of Hindutva supporters.

Even leader of opposition Arjun Modhwadia of the Congress holds the same view. He said that the 'Mayawati surge' in UP would have no impact on Gujarat politics. Another senior Congress leader of Gujarat claims that dalits and OBCs in Gujarat have become disillusioned with the ruling BJP, and “are gradually moving back into their traditional Congress fold”.

It will be difficult for Mayawati to make the fight a three-cornered contest as the dalit population in Gujarat is a meager 7.5 per cent as compared with UP where it is a huge 21.1 per cent.Nevertheless, there are little chances for Mayawati even to play a spoiler unlike the upcoming lections in Maharashtra, where in Vidarbha region, with 22 per cent of dalit population, she can spoil the chances of  Congress reaching the magic figure. As for the 9 per cent Muslims in Gujarat, they are more likely to vote en-masse for a party, which can replace Modi instead of wilfully choosing to split their votes.