A Team beats B Team

The Congress deliberately betrayed the secular plank and fell right into the Moditva trap

Hardnews Bureau Ahmedabad/Delhi

It is not funny for a doctor to go wrong on diagnosis after studying the symptoms. The plight of journalists trying to predict electoral outcomes in a highly charged political environment is no different. When we visited Gujarat in November, Chief Minister Narendra Modi looked vulnerable and in a state of panic. But as we had pointed out, Modi had it in him to prove everyone wrong and get out of the corner. True to his grain, he proved them wrong and won the assembly elections resoundingly.

However, not everything has gone the Modi way. The  Congress has got 42 per cent votes. The latest report states that in Gujarat’s capital, Gandhinagar (LK Advani’s constituency), the BJP polled  81,864 votes and won the  seat. But the catch is that 78,116 votes were polled against the BJP. Atleast in 33 constituencies the BJP has won with very close margins including by 631 and 677 votes ,as in Rajpipla and Mandal, with the BSP playing spoiler in many places. The BJP lost decisively in central Gujarat. If anything it proves two things: that, as usual, the Congress did not push too hard, and five crore Gujaratis are not with Modi as he repeatedly claims.

Did Modi win because communal politics still works in Gujarat, or was it over development issues? The truth lies in the way the Congress approached the elections.

Those opposed to Modi had hoped that five years after the riots in 2002, the polity in Gujarat would return to normal elections based on bread and butter issues. This belief shaped the Congress strategy. Congress managers like Ahmed Patel thought that by joining hands with BJP dissidents like Keshubhai Patel, Sureshbhai Mehta and Gordhan Zadaphia, they could put together a winning strategy. In other words, they would have created another 'soft Hindutva' mirror-image of the BJP without the domineering presence of Modi. A chimera was created that the VHP and RSS may dump their own child, Narendra Modi, in favour of the dissidents. Congress, in its desperation to come to power, had walked into a well-laid trap.

Besides, much was expected from the Congress-led UPA in terms of justice after the Gujarat genocide. But its utter insensitivity and inaction has yet again proved that democracy and secular electoral mandates can often prove totally incapable of providing justice.

The BJP dissidents decided on the Congress policy and their list of candidates. Traditional secular Congressmen were dropped in favour of those who still swore by Hindutva. The Congress leadership also responded to a strongly held view among the Hindu-minded political class that tickets should not be given to Muslims as they might antagonise the majority community. As a result, only six Muslims were given tickets in a list of 182. For a better part of the campaign, the Congress did not utter a word about the 2002 riots. They scrupulously chose to confine themselves to development issues. They left the task of criticising Modi to the BJP dissidents.

In short, media space was occupied either by Modi or by BJP dissidents. The Congress did not represent any alternative vision. This view was buttressed by the fact that Uma Bharti fielded her own candidate and refused to back off even after she was persuaded to side with the BJP. The Sadhu Samaj, another player in the last elections, announced their intentions to oppose the BJP.

Congress managers did not realise that their positive outlook was cleverly orchestrated by those who wanted the elections to remain within the Hindutva framework. The ground was prepared for a Congress defeat if the basis that was providing them optimism went back to its moorings — communal politics.