On the verge of a tectonic shift?

Despite US and military pressure, Pakistan can make a historical breakthrough towards democracy. The people's mandate proves it

Praful Bidwai, Delhi, Hardnews 

When it comes to commenting on Pakistan, the Indian 'strategic community's' self-styled experts never run short of clichés and convoluted explanations bordering on the bizarre. Examples: Nothing can propel Pakistan towards genuine democratisation; ultimately, what matters there are "the three A's" (Allah, Army and America); the people don't count, only the military does; so deep is Pakistan's structural crisis that it's doomed to fail, if it hasn't already failed; there's at best a narrow constituency for peace with India; there can be no authentic India-Pakistan reconciliation while the Pakistan army remains dominant.
Just before the February 18 elections, many of these 'experts' confidently predicted that Pakistan's power equations would not change and the army would remain supreme - no matter what the outcome. That Pervez Musharraf would somehow ensure that the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) -PML(Q) - controls the National Assembly, while the mullahs will hold sway in the North-West Frontier Province and Baluchistan. The only new factor would be a sympathy wave for the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), thanks to Benazir Bhutto's assassination. Someone put it bluntly: "The irony is that the elections are not going to change anything. The real power will remain in the hands of the forces that have retained it for most of the past 60 years."
When the elections did produce major surprises - including humiliating defeats for most PML(Q) heavyweights, a plurality but no majority for the PPP, and the near-complete rout of religious fundamentalists - out came another prediction from our worthies. Pakistan wouldn't really make the transition to democracy.
Some prophesied: Just as the election of 1970 - in which the PPP did brilliantly in West Pakistan - led to the country's disintegration, this election too represents a false dawn. Then, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto colluded with the generals to lose Bangladesh, and paved the way for
prolonged military dictatorship. Today, his son-in-law Asif Ali Zardari and/or Nawaz Sharif might accomplish
another disaster.
Only abysmal ignorance, prejudice and myopia - rooted in long years of power without accountability as bureaucrats, former military officers or diplomats, who comprise the bulk of the 'strategic community,' coupled with intellectual aridity - can explain the bankruptcy of such views. In reality, there are stark differences between the early 1970s and now. Then, the army engineered the PPP's victory. Within days of Bangladesh's liberation, Bhutto became chief martial law administrator. Today, the PPP and the PML (Nawaz) have won a largely free and fair election in the teeth of opposition from Musharraf who still retains his links with the army.
Then, Bhutto forced Pakistan's transition from the parliamentary to presidential system. Today, the opposite is being attempted. Then, the Pakistani public hadn't yet been treated to a diet of hardline Islam and authoritarianism, which came with Zia-ul-Haq. Today, it has rejected Islamic hardliners, giving the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) only five seats (instead of 56 in 2002) in the 272-strong National Assembly.
Then, civil society hadn't emerged as a factor. Today, it has become a leading player and can't be ignored/suppressed. Nor can the media be gagged.
The outcome of this election disproves the doomsayers' view that Pakistan can never develop a democratic ethos. It has far-reaching implications for balances within state structures - because of its character as a referendum against the establishment, including the army, and for a decisive transition to democracy.
The strength of the anti-army sentiment is probably the most intense since the Bangladesh war. The most popular slogans (example: "Go, Musharraf, Go!", and more) chanted at every public meeting and circulated through SMS and ring-tones, deride the military for its misrule, corruption and intimate links with US agendas. This sentiment coincides with army chief Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani's decision to sever overt links with politics, withdraw personnel from civilian jobs and declare that the army would play no role in elections. One effect was an election, which, despite flaws, was one of Pakistan's freest and fairest. Clearly, the army didn't let Musharraf indulge in large-scale rigging.
The army's withdrawal augurs well for the demilitarisation of the Pakistani State, politics and society. If this is consolidated, the trend would lead to a historic breakthrough.
Pakistan still has a long way to go towards full democracy, but the pro-democratisation trends are encouraging. The voter has severely punished almost all of PML(Q) 'stalwarts', and conveyed a radical new massage of maturity and rejection of Machiavellian politics. These 'stalwarts' belong to well-entrenched 'political families' with strong clan connections, and are among Pakistan's most venal and shrewd politicians. They typically win all elections - no matter on what ticket. Their ignominious defeat clarifies the central meaning of the results.
The message for Musharraf is simple. He asked the people to vote for his nominees. They resoundingly rejected his appeal. If Musharraf has any sense, he should quit and roll back his recent decisions, including the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) of November 3 and his dismissal of legitimately appointed judges.
Musharraf's options have greatly narrowed after Zardari and Sharif announced their agreement of mutual cooperation across provinces. Musharraf, and his powerful international backer, the US, did their utmost to prevent this. The US ambassador in Islamabad was indiscreet enough to demand that Zardari drive up and meet her even as the results were coming in and before he had met major Pakistani leaders.
Washington put enormous pressure on Zardari not to demand the restoration of dismissed judges, some of whom had begun to enquire into the "disappearances" of hundreds as a result of the US-led "Global War on Terror" (GwoT). More damning videotape evidence has since emerged of gross US interference and micro-management of Pakistani politics.
Equally crude, Musharraf sent confidant and national security secretary Tariq Aziz to tell Zardari that there would be a huge price to pay, including the restoration of corruption cases against him - ann-ulled as part of the US-brokered Benazir-Musharraf deal. To back up the threat, the government opened up prosecution of the anti-Zardari litigation in Geneva.
It's a tribute to the strength of the voter's mandate that Zardari didn't buckle under his pressure. The mandate favours a PPP-PML(N) coalition which carries parties like the Mohajir-dominated Muttahida Qaumi Movement, and Afsandyar Wali Khan's Awami National Party.
Such a broad and diverse coalition offers Pakistan the best chance to address two urgent tasks: making a decisive break with military rule, and provincial autonomy. The immediate priority is to rescind the November PCO, restore Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudhry and other dismissed judges, and cancel Musharraf's decrees. Nothing should be done to bestow legitimacy on the army. It must be encouraged to withdraw to the barracks. The demilitarisation of State structures must begin, eventually leading to the ISI's dismantling.
A lot can still go wrong in Pakistan. Its institutions and structures are weak, and its leaders unreliable; they are not trusted by the people. There is, besides, a potential saboteur - the US, with its obsessive GWoT agenda.
But some things can go right too. If the hold of the army and Islamists is significantly weakened for some time, Pakistan could make that 'Great Transition': to a moderate modernist democracy in an Islamic State. The importance of this for South Asia, for relations between the West and Islam, and indeed the whole world, cannot be exaggerated.
India too must respect the election's verdict, and look beyond Musharraf. India can play a positive role by asking the Americans to do so too, while offering cooperation with the new government.
Zardari and Sharif have both pledged support to the India-Pakistan peace process. Indians should be pleased that the process now has a wider constituency, beyond Musharraf. This is great news for the prospect of a peaceful, prosperous South Asia.