Buddha's front in the red

If a united front can defeat the CPM in the panchayat polls in Bengal, it will have a cascading effect: on municipal polls this year, Lok Sabha polls next year, and assembly elections in 2011

Rajat Roy, Kolkata, Hardnews 

With the appointment of Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi as the new party chief in West Bengal, Sonia Gandhi might have given an indication of the hardening of attitude towards the CPM. The state is now on election mode, panchayat polls are due in May, 2008. In September, around 60 municipalities will have elections. Opposition parties realise that unlike other occasions, there is growing disenchantment with the ruling Left in rural Bengal, and they can cash on it. Nandigram, Singur and other crisis-points have given them enough ammunition. Never before has the ruling CPM-led Left Front (LF) been in such a disarray shape as it is now. Its two important partners - the Forward Bloc (FB) and Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) - have threatened to fight elections on their own, putting Left unity in jeopardy.
Much depends on Mamata Banerjee. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader is yet to make up her mind about electoral alliances. But pressure, however, is mounting from below; the opposition rank and file is clamouring to put up a united front. Dasmunsi is sending loaded signals, indicating that the Congress wants an alliance with the TMC, Dasmunsi said, "You name any party that does not believe in 'jot' (unity) at the grassroots level. Even the CPM has got its partners to fight the panchayat polls." The Congress is no longer insisting the TMC to 'divorce' the NDA officially before it forms an alliance.
Two things have emboldened the opposition in facing the seemingly invincible CPM: one, the realisation that after the forcible acquisition of farm land in Singur and brutal repression of the popular mass movement in Nandigram, the LF has lost its moral authority; second, if the opposition can avoid splitting votes, they can improve their poll prospects. Recent trends prove the point. In December 2007, in the Balagarh assembly bye election, the CPM retained the seat but got 10,000 less votes. The vote break-up showed that the fractured opposition 'together' polled more votes than the CPM. The opposition rank and file did not miss the point and started closing ranks.
The last few months have seen a series of elections in school administrative committees where the CPM lost heavily to the united opposition. They lost mostly in districts like South 24 Parganas, North 24 Parganas, East Midnapur, Murshidabad, Malda and North Dinajpur. The trend became so disturbing that veteran Jyoti Basu expressed his concern publicly and forced the leadership to reassess the situation. They found that there has been massive erosion of support among Bengali Muslims in rural areas. They have reasons to worry as firebrand Muslim leader Siddikulla Choudhury, under the banner of his newly-formed party- Progressive Democratic Conference of India (PDCI)- is busy touring the districts and drawing huge crowds. He has already agreed to have an alliance with Mamata, but she has remained tight-lipped because of her relationship with the 'communal' BJP.
The TMC strength is mostly in south Bengal in the districts on both sides of river Hoogly. The Congress is stronger in north Bengal and Murshidabad of south Bengal. The PDCI is gaining in strength in districts bordering Bangladesh. The Socialist Unity Centre of India (SUCI) and different factions of the CPI-ML, are waiting in the wings to join a united front against the CPM.
The task cut out for the opposition is not easy. The Congress is dependent on the CPM at the Centre. Mamata is reluctant to join hands with the Congress. Sonia Gandhi's utterances in Tripura reflects a slow hardline. Congress leaders can't ignore the fact that Prakash Karat etc, are hobnobbing with Mulayam Singh Yadav in trying to revive a Third Front. General elections are due in 2009, and CPM might lose seats (it is unlikely that it can maintain its current strength in Kerala and Bengal). It is hence prudent that the Congress takes a confrontational stance in the ensuing elections.
Sending Dasmunsi to replace Pranab Mukherjee is another indication that the Congress wants to confront the Left on its home turf. Unlike Mukherjee, Dasmunsi has links with the grassroots and his anti-CPM credentials are not suspect. He rose to prominence fighting against the CPM in the early 1970s. And his equation with Mamata is flexible - he went to Nandigarm and stood by her. Now all depends on how she and 'Priya' can sort out problems and put up a working alliance for the panchayat polls.
Last time, out of 19 zilla parishads, the opposition won two: Malda and Murshidabad. Now it hopes to win another three to four districts in south Bengal. If they can achieve that, it will have a cascading effect on municipal polls this year, Lok Sabha polls next year, and, finally, assembly elections in 2011. But, to achieve that, they will have to cross the first hurdle - form a united front against the CPM-led front. Will they be able to do that?