Bitter is Sweet

The fear of being wiped out and the possibility of Mayawati becoming king- maker after the Lok Sabha polls has forced Congress and Samajwadi Party (SP) to sink differences and explore the chances of having a pre-poll alliance.

It was an old cliché till PV Narasimha Rao ‘retired it' from political language in 1991: The party that rules UP rules India. Rao managed to form a government without banking on the support of the most populous state. However, UP, with 80 MPs, can still make a difference to the electoral fortunes of any party aspiring to raise its flag atop the Raisina Hill.

The BSP's resounding victory in the 2007 assembly polls, which translates into almost 40 parliamentary seats, is forcing other parties to rework their strategies for 2009 Lok Sabha polls. The SP, Congress and BJP are threatened of obliteration if they don't rethink their alliances and take stock of their social constituencies.

So, from this standpoint, there is political logic behind the Congress and SP rebuilding bridges. SP's rethink of supporting the nuke deal has less to do with the energy security or Indo-US relations. It is desperate to save its turf from Mayawati's aggressive putsch. The SP would like to prevent the steady desertion of its leaders and erosion of social constituency. Mulayam Singh Yadav is not even confident of his Muslim and Yadav base any longer. He could get 21 Muslim MLAs elected from the state against the BSP's 29. His candidates lost their deposits in the four of the five assembly by-polls in which they recently contested.

Many former SP leaders have switched to the BSP or formed new outfits. Others are in touch with BSP and likely to cross over. MPs like Raj Babbar, Beni Prasad Verma, Munnavar Hasan, and MLAs Naawab Kazim, Vijay Singh and Naresh Agarwal, veteran stalwarts, have left. The Congress, too, faces similar grim tidings. Akhilesh Das's crossover to the BSP was just the proverbial tip of the unstable iceberg.

For the Congress, which won nine MP seats from UP in 2004, the 2009 elections could see them decimated. Even ‘isolated' Gandhi-family strongholds like Amethi and Rai Bareilly and its neighbourhood are not completely safe.

After BSP's recent withdrawal of support to the UPA, the need for SP's backing on the nuclear deal, should the Left pull out, has accelerated the process of renewed Congress-SP ties. UP Congress chief Rita Bahuguna Joshi has said that the SP is a secular party and the high command will decide about a future alliance with SP and Ajit Singh's RLD. AICC General Secretary Digvijay Singh said during the Kanpur conclave that he favoured an alliance with secular parties like the SP. Mulayam Singh says he would see to it that secular forces will come to power at the Centre after the next Lok Sabha polls.

Congress is perturbed by the way BSP is gaining ground. The BSP swept the recently held by-elections in UP, while the Congress vote percentage in the last assembly polls touched an all time low at 8.56 per cent. Mayawati has constantly check-mated efforts by Rahul Gandhi to enter her ‘Dalit territory' in UP. Under these circumstances, the Congress seems to have no option but to join hands with the SP with an eye on the next general elections. No wonder, the prime minister literally pampers Amar Singh on his ‘dinner table'.

According to informed sources, Congress leaders have submitted a list of 25 Lok Sabha seats where the party feels it has chances of winning. These seats include all the nine sitting members, including Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and union ministers Mahavir Prasad, Jatin Prasad and Sri Prakash Jaisawal. The other seats include five seats where the party stood second in the last Lok Sabha polls.

Although Digvijay Singh has been asked by the high command to set the ball rolling with SP, the final decision will take place once Sonia Gandhi and Mulayam Singh meet in July. The SP too is holding back its cards in view of a possible alliance with the Congress and Ajit Singh.

The SP, with 39 MPs, is under compulsion to join hands with the Congress and the RLD's Jat turf in western UP. Political analysts believe that after her successful social engineering with Brahmins, Mayawati is now winning over the powerful Thakur, Vaish and other communities by assuring them a share in the pie. This has worried all her opponents.

Mulayam Singh still commands unquestioned support in the Muslim community. He knows that the Congress is no longer

for Muslims in UP as was the case after the Babri Masjid demolition. It is hoping therefore that if the Congress, Mulayam Singh and Ajit Singh join hands, there would be no confusion in the Muslim mind. Hence, between the Hindutva forces, the BSP and this new ‘secular front' the choice will be clear. And with old support bases of these parties, and new realignments of upper and backward castes, this could be the only trump card to trip Mayawati. Then, it might not be really a diamond-studded cake-walk for the lady anymore.