Hindutva not so rosy

The historic descent of the BJP beyond the Vindhyas and the formation of a majority government in Karnataka recently have created optimism in the party about its possible ascent to Delhi in the coming parliamentary elections. This euphoria is reinforced by a series of victories achieved by the BJP in assembly elections in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab (with Shiromani Akali Dal) last year. Obviously, it has created anxiety in the Congress that is besieged with the problem of inflation and price rise on the economic front, and the threat of withdrawal of support by the Left, and the allegation of a weak prime minister on the political front.
Will the BJP would do better in the next Lok Sabha (LS) polls as compared to 2004. In the 2004 LS elections, the performance of the BJP and Congress was evenly balanced. That is indicated by the equal vote share of 34.3 per cent they got. The fact that Congress was able to form the government thereafter was more due to its pre-poll alliance -- the UPA -- and the performance of its constituents, as also the support given by the Left Front. The UPA got 222 out of 535 seats that it contested and half of that 111 came from just four states (Tamil Nadu (TN)-35, Andhra Pradesh (AP)-34, Bihar-29, Jharkhand-13), and another one-fourth from Maharashtra (23), Gujarat (12), Assam (9) Haryana(9) and Himachal Pradesh (HP) (3). So, the Congress seats and vote shares across all major states were quite low during the previous LS polls, and there is nothing to indicate that the party would improve upon that in the coming one.
As far as the BJP is concerned, it had then lost in some of the states like Assam, Jharkhand and Haryana because it had lost allies there. Due to changes in alliance structure over 1999, the NDA is reported to have lost around 26 seats whereas UPA got 46 more seats in 2004. But, the NDA had been a clear gainer in Rajasthan, MP, Maharashtra, Punjab and Kerala (Yogendra Yadav: , December 18-24, 2004). So, in the coming LS elections, much will depend on the reconfiguration of the alliance structure by the BJP and Congress.
It is unfortunate for the BJP and Congress that they have neither clout nor alliance partners in the most important state of UP that sends the largest contingent of 80 MPs to LS. The two seemingly regional parties, SP and BSP (which is a national party, of course), have apportioned between them about three-fourths of seats. This significant loss of about 60 seats distorts the electoral arithmetic of both the NDA and UPA.
Ironically, the BJP had claimed its revival from UP in the wake of the Ramjanmabhoomi-Babri Masjid imbroglio in 1991 when it got 221 seats and 31.5 per cent votes in the assembly elections, and 52 seats and 32.8 per cent votes in LS elections. Unfortunately, the party failed to understand the of the people and thought, imprudently, that the voters can be fooled to vote for the party on such a flimsy issue as the ‘Ram mandir'. They also failed to appreciate the state's syncretic that generates genuine love between Hindus and Muslims in UP.
That explains the consistent decline of the BJP in the assembly elections (1993: 177 seats, 33.3 per cent votes; 1996: 175 seats, 33.9 per cent votes; 2002: 88 seats, 20.7 per cent votes; 2007: 50 seats, 16.9 per cent votes). During the last few years, the BJP has hardly done anything to attract popular votes, and therefore, the chances of the BJP improving on its previous performance in UP does not appear to be bright.