Line of No Control

India should be wary of Washington's deceptive Afghan-Pak policy

Zorawar Daulet Singh Delhi, Hardnews

Washington's reassessment of its Afghan policy is unlikely to make India happy. At least, that's what initial signs suggest.

The popular view is: "Barack Obama is going to let the Pakistanis have it." This alludes to the surge strategy that could double US ground deployments by this summer. Given the ongoing insurrection in tribal areas moving deeper into Pakistan, US policies could accelerate the centrifugal pressures in Pakistan. This would make its current territorial integrity even more precarious. Yet, the Obama national security team seeks to avoid this. New Delhi should remain wary of any American moves toward conciliation in the Hindu Kush that might imply a tacit or open accommodation with the Taliban.

The American security establishment has recently made a number of public statements on Afghan-Pak (Af-Pak). The acronym clubs the theatre of Pashtun resistance and acknowledges the interconnectedness of the region. This provides a proximate trend of the intentions and priorities that would shape Obama's regional policy. Robert Gates, US Secretary of Defence, recently said in a congressional hearing, "Our primary goal is to prevent Afghanistan from being used as a base for terrorists and extremists to attack the United States and our allies... If we set ourselves the objective of creating some sort of Central Asian Valhalla over there, we will lose, because nobody in the world has that kind of time, patience and money."

This was the first public announcement of a scaling down of US goals. It was fuelled by a failed seven-year Afghan intervention and the likely budgetary pressures in times of a massive economic crisis. Vice-president Joe Biden's comment during the Munich Security Conference is another important indicator of Washington's outlook: "...no strategy for Afghanistan, in my humble opinion, can succeed without Pakistan." Similarly, John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, noted in an op-ed: "The United States is not in Afghanistan to make it our 51st state, but to make sure it does not become an Al-Qaeda narco state and a terrorist beachhead capable of destabilising neighbouring Pakistan."

Obama in an interview with NBC News remarked, "What we can do is make sure that Afghanistan is not a safe haven for Al-Qaeda. What we can do is make sure that it is not destabilising neighbouring Pakistan." Shortly after Holbrooke's fact-finding mission to Islamabad, the Pakistan foreign minister said at a press conference that Holbrooke had agreed to review policy to counter terrorism in the region after consultation with Pakistan. Also, a joint US-Pakistani team would be set up for this.

Four interrelated themes emerge from the official commentary on Afghanistan. First, a narrowing of the strategic goals that would drive US military plans. In sum, counter-terrorism will trump nation-building goals. Second, recognition that the key to Afghanistan lie in Pakistan. Third, Afghanistan would be of little geopolitical utility to Washington if Pakistan goes down during the process of the former's stabilisation. Thus, security of Pakistan -- preempting a civil war or regime collapse -- is becoming a vital objective for Washington.

Fourth, US-Pakistan relations will transform from ‘transactional' engagement to one based on long-term multi-dimensional ties. Washington has learnt that engagement with Pakistan's insecure feudal-military elite will only persuade them to moderate their support to the Afghan Taliban and sponsorship of insurgent groups that provide leverage to Islamabad.