No pre-poll alliance by Congress: Is it a mistake?

Not forging pre-poll alliances could well turn out to be smart move for the Congress if it can rev up its election machinery in the run-up to the polls

Rakhi Chakrabarty Delhi

On the face of it, the UPA seems to be in tatters. Almost a thoroughfare, where Congress allies are moving to and fro and out, flirting with various political entities, moving back again - basically with the aim to boost their fortunes in the general elections.

 Political analysts told Hardnews that the Congress seems to have committed a blunder by not forming pre-poll alliances.

The Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD), the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) have formed a group within a group raising the heckles of the Congress and the spectre of a 'fourth front'. However, RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav allayed fears when he asserted that they are all with the UPA and that Manmohan Singh is their prime ministerial candidate.

Sharad Pawar was on the brink of joining the Third Front bash in Orissa. But he changed his mind, probably at the last moment, at the coaxing of Sonia Gandhi, insiders say. But the Maratha leader's aspiration for the PM's job is rather overpowering and unlikely to die out without some serious effort by all concerned. A sliver of hope for the UPA as a coalition is being kept alive by its tie-up with the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.

BJP leader LK Advani took a potshot at the Congress and the UPA a few days ago, saying, "The UPA has disintegrated to a point where it has ceased to exist as a pre-poll alliance. For the Congress, alliance politics is not a matter of principle and conviction, it is only a matter of expediency and compulsion." He added that the NDA led by the BJP is going to the polls as a pre-poll alliance.

Not forging pre-poll alliances could well turn out to be smart move for the Congress if it can rev up its sagging election machinery in the run-up to the polls. It is said that it was Rahul Gandhi's idea not to go in for pre-poll alliances because he wants to resurrect the organisational structure of the party in states like UP and Bihar, where the party's grassroots set-up has been decisively eliminated.

The Congress is in a better state that in 2004. In contrast, between 2004 and now, there has been erosion of the base of some of its UPA allies.

For instance, the RJD in Bihar doesn't look too good compared to Nitish Kumar's upbeat JD(U), in terms of governance, performance and 'secular' politics. The performance of the SP in UP is still being debated though there are reports that the anti-incumbency factor is already working against Mayawati's BSP.

A section of the Congress feels it isn't a wise idea to bear the cross of its allies. Rather, post-poll, the Congress can hope for a better bargain and bring in new allies with the requisite numbers to the UPA fold. And it would have no obligation to accommodate pre-poll UPA allies.

In fact, that would open up more prospects for the Congress if it emerges as the single largest party to stake claim for government formation. Consider this hypothesis: if the RJD puts up a poor show and JD (U) wins a majority of seats in Bihar, the Congress can jolly well woo JD (U) to the UPA. The RJD can be left out in the cold. With George Fernandes out of the poll fray, the Congress and JD (U), on principle, don't have many differences that they cannot come together, if the need arises. But Nitish would definitely have a problem joining the UPA if Lalu and his RJD remains part of it, or if the state government is threatened by a BJP pull-out in Bihar.