Congress wins, most psephologists lose

None of the fancy TV channels or their highly rated analysts got the numbers right

Sanjay Kapoor Delhi Hardnews

There were very few who thought that Congress would have such a thumping win. And, no one believed them. One of them was Kanishka Bajaj, a psephologist, who found space only on channels that do not figure on the digital platforms of Sky, Big TV, Sun etc. He got Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu correct. His predictions came on Live India, Total TV and a few more. It was a subaltern prediction for subaltern viewers. He was bang on target in the case of the three states that made all the difference to the fortunes of the Congress party. None of the fancy TV channels or their highly rated analysts got the numbers right. And, what a performance it has been for the Congress. They are on the threshold of forming a government where they may not really depend too much on their allies. With about 200-odd seats in their kitty, Congress can really cherry pick the supporters they want in a 543 member house.

 In some ways this is a triumph for Manmohan Singh and his understated style of politics. It is also a vindication of the policies of the last few years that resulted in the government shifting its gaze from the rich towards the poor. Loan waiver and rural employment guarantee scheme contribute substantially in leavening the fortunes of the Congress party. If the Indian economy survived the catastrophic slowdown then the credit should go to these policies. There was sufficient money in the banks and the rural areas to overcome the credit squeeze.

The bounce in the fortunes of the Congress also came due to the disgust amongst the urban voters. Delimitation had changed the contours of India's constituencies and the new generation of voters thought that Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi provided a better deal than hysterical hate-filled leadership of LK Advani.

The Congress' mandate gently shifts the locus of politics away from southern India to east and northern India. The stupendous performance of Congress party in Uttar Pradesh means that politics of identity has taken a severe beating. Leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav and over-rated dalit czarina, Mayawati, who were expecting 40 to 50 seats have been made to look very ordinary. Fixers like Amar Singh would have little role to play and they would be encouraged to carry out their promise of retiring from active politics.

In all, it is a big victory for the Congress, but this also means that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would have to deal with many issues that were put on the backburner since he was confined for his bypass surgery. US President Barack Obama is waiting for him to contribute in his Af-Pak initiative. Manmohan Singh, Hardnews feels, with this kind of a mandate would be able to look Richard Holbrooke, Amar Singh and the demanding DMK in the eye.