Rainfall to be below normal

People brace up for a 'dry' monsoon season after the government confirms worst fears
Samarth Pathak Delhi Hardnews

Confirming the worst fears of the people, the government of India warned people of a "weakened monsoon this season" on Wednesday. Addressing the media at a news conference, Earth Sciences minister Prithviraj Chavan said, "The rainfall is expected to be below normal this time. Monsoon rainfall is expected to be 93 per cent in the long term average, as against the earlier forecast of 96 per cent."

Bringing relief to both the State and the people of India, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday had reportedly predicted "good rains" in most parts of the country from June 25. According to officials in the IMD, the rains were expected to continue till July 2, though another short-term forecast reportedly suggested it would continue till July 15.

"A strong monsoon surge, observed to be generating in the Bay of Bengal, has raised expectations of a revival of rains by Friday," IMD director BP Yadav was reported to have said. IMD's statement had aroused hope, but was also being met with apprehension, Hardnews learnt.

According to an earlier statement released by the IMD, there was a 45 per cent reduction in the rainfall between June 1- June 17 due to a lull in south-west monsoon. The monsoons have already been delayed by two weeks, and have not progressed beyond parts of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. Mumbai, as a matter of fact, has been experiencing heavy rains, while the rest of India grapples with severe heat. The irony was rightly expressed in a headline of a Hindi TV news channel: Desh Tarsa, Mumbai mein Varsha.

The delay in the arrival of seasonal monsoons, and the rising temperatures in many states have led to fears of a possible "drought-like situation" arising in the country, ringing alarm bells for the government. A failure of monsoons or shortage of rains would wreak havoc on the kharif crop this season. Reportedly, in many states like Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamilnadu etc, where rains have not yet arrived and heat wave conditions prevail, crops have already begun to dry up. Most farmers across India cultivate groundnuts, rice, sugarcane, oilseeds, soyabean etc during the kharif season, which are excessively monsoon-dependent.

According to an estimate, nearly 60 per cent of the land under cultivation in India is irrigated by rainwater. Experts believe that low rainfall would lead to an inevitable destruction of crops, which would thereby lead to a sharp increase in food prices. Already, the May consumer price index of rural households revealed a significant rise in the prices of essential food commodities like milk, vanaspati, wheat, flour, jaggery, sugar, fruits and vegetables. Inflation is likely to take its toll in case the monsoons fail. Ambitious and "pro-poor" welfare schemes announced by the UPA government after coming to power in the general elections also face uncertainty in the wake of "rainfall crisis" in the country.

The apparent "failure" of monsoons this year is being attributed to a weather anomaly called the El Nino. It arises due to the warming of the pacific waters that slow down the trade winds blowing from South America to South East Asia, and weakens the monsoon in most cases. According to reports, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which is the apex body of the United Nations on Climate, had previously forewarned that there was "more than a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino situation to arise this year". Reacting to this, IMD officials stated that "a 0.5 degree increase in sea surface temperature has been observed by meteorologists."