Hardnews Exclusive: The Rise & Rise of CHINA

What implications can China's military modernisation and strategic manoeuvers have on South Asia and the world?
Jayadeva Ranade Delhi

China's 'rise' - the prospect of which had prompted Napoleon two centuries ago to warn about its possible repercussions, is now accelerating and coincides with the profound transformation underway in the global geo-political environment. The 'rise' of India, China and Japan, simultaneously for the first time in history, each with its own aspirations, generates its own dynamics and latent potential tensions. At the same time, the existing world powers are naturally trying to ensure that the shift in global balance that could occur consequent to the emergence of the new centres of power, is so calibrated that it best serves their interests. China's effort to modernise and reach the level of an advanced developed nation is being shaped by these developments.

China's tremendous economic growth over the decades has been facilitated by aspirations harboured by successive leadership generations of the Communist Party of China (CPC). China's economic might can be gauged from its steadily increasing forex reserves which today total $2 trillion and, together with USA, accounts for 30 per cent of the world's GDP.

This economic strength enabled the modernisation of China's armed forces. China's leaders focused on military modernisation for the past 30 years and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is today a force to reckon with in the region. In the past couple of years, China has become more confident and assertive and has begun putting its military might on display. This development has aroused concern in many world capitals and countries, especially China's neighbours, who are trying to discern its ambitions and motives.

China's military modernisation is a huge task. It has inherent and major pitfalls. Chinese military strategists use the term 'transformation', acknowledging the enormity and protracted nature of the task which entails thorough overhaul of the entire military establishment, its thinking, doctrines, strategy and tactics, and ethos.

When China formally initiated the 'Four Modernisations' programme in December 1979, these were: agriculture, industry, science & technology and defence.  Defence was listed last by Deng Xiaoping who assessed that China's military could be modernised gradually and only after the economy begins to grow a strong defence, science and technology establishment will develop. This priority was revised in 1993 by Chinese President Jiang Zemin when a stunned Chinese leadership witnessed the way in which US strategy and weaponry destroyed the Iraqi forces during the Americans' first Gulf War in 1991.

The second Gulf War and the wars in Kosovo and Afghanistan reinforced Chinese assessments of the overwhelming capabilities of US military technology and doctrine. Military modernisation was accelerated with double-digit increases for China's defence budget each successive year thereafter. Today, China's defence budget is conservatively estimated at approximately US$ 70 billion - a quantum jump from the approximately $5/6 billion through the 1980s - and it is projected to continue to increase proportionate to its economic growth.

Deng Xiaoping, who was the first senior leader to articulate that  the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) structure, organisation, doctrine and tactics were unsuited to the times and required drastic overhaul, also questioned Mao's theory of the 'inevitability of war'. This signalled a major policy shift giving the PLA much-needed breathing space to examine doctrines and prepare for other types of war, besides global conflict.