Hardnews Exclusive: Pakistan’s problems and its prospects

Pakistan may split if it doesn't give up its present policies and follow enlightened self interest that allows reopening of traditional trading and transit routes between Europe, Middle East, China, Central Asia with India and other countries of South Asia
Shrinivasrao S Sohoni Kabul

Perhaps not adequately known, British strategic thinkers of the 1930s and '40s, appreciative of the vital geopolitical significance to the empire's defence of the northwest region of the Indian subcontinent, were convinced and concerned that an undivided India granted Independence under Gandhi and Nehru, would not join the Anglo-American alliance against International Communism - represented at that time by the Soviet Union and Red China.

In 1947, this geopolitical assessment underpinned British statecraft leading to the bloody vivisection of India, its amputated part - Pakistan - created expediently to sub serve strategic aims.

From the viewpoint of regional geo-political significance, the territory of Pakistan, even in the 21st century, has indubitably immense strategic value, bordering as it does the Gulf region, Iran, and Afghanistan, and being the gatekeeper on the Arabian Sea coastline to routes to and fro natural-resource-rich Central Asian countries, and to China's dragon-fired economy.

 
Implementing the scheme for the creation of Pakistan, the US and UK expeditiously maneuvered Pakistan's induction as a member of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO). Locations in Pakistan's northwest were then developed by the US as air force bases bringing oil and industrial sites in the erstwhile Soviet Union within range of military airpower, target China, and dominate air space over the Gulf region. Pakistan was also used by the West to interface and exert leverage with other Islamic countries. President Nixon, exploiting the Sino-Soviet rift, used Pakistan as a mediator to connect with Mao's China. Presidents Carter and Reagan relied on Pakistan to build and guide the Mujahideen resistance against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

Today, the US-led NATO uses Pakistan to reach supplies to forces in Afghanistan, expects Pakistan's cooperation in the war against Al Qaeda and Taliban as well as negotiations with Taliban, and as an alternative channel of contact with China.

In lieu of its being used as a subordinate client state, colossal military and financial aid was flooded into Pakistan almost on demand. Although the US and UK stood as champions of Democracy worldwide, upsetting of democracy in Pakistan by military coups and prolonged spells of military dictatorships in Pakistan were permitted, even found simpler to do business with. During the 1948, 1965 and 1971 armed conflicts initiated by Pakistan against India, the West was supportive of Pakistan. Pakistan's genocidal havoc in its erstwhile eastern wing, now Bangladesh, appeared overlooked. President Nixon even diverted the Seventh Fleet of the US Navy towards the Bay of Bengal in an attempt to intimidate India.

Post-1971, Pakistan pursued its clandestine nuclear weapons and missiles programme with collaboration from the Chinese and the North Koreans. Pakistan's equally deadly nuclear proliferation activity, though also meticulously monitored by the West, was not objected to. Pakistan was not penalised for sponsoring heinous acts of terrorism in J&K, Punjab and different cities of India. Pakistan's active involvement in narcotics trade and counterfeit currency operations was similarly ignored.