What’s in store for Afghanistan?

A strange sense of resignation and ennui has surfaced in political circles in Afghanistan even as conditions worsen by the day, the military effort of the 46-nation NATO-led ISAF being assessed ineffectual as the insurgency and Wahhabi Islam spread in the region.
Shrinivasrao S Sohoni Kabul

The counterinsurgency campaign is floundering, straining as it does to counter the armed opposition in Afghanistan without addressing, let alone severing, the mainstays of the insurgency. 

For years the West has shied away from confronting the three-fold nexus: a) between the Saudi regime and Wahhabism: towards proselytizing for extremist radical orthodox Islam; b) the nexus between Saudi and Pakistani leadership aiming at domination of Afghanistan and the Central Asian region; and c) the nexus between Pakistan and Narco-Terrorism: facilitating both the above. 
(Is there another key nexus operating? There are reports of aircraft laden with narcotics taking off each day from a strategic military airport under international air traffic control. The drugs trade also involves continuous bulk supply of precursor chemicals imported by cartels for manufacture of heroin.)

President Obama, grappling as he is with a host of issues including the economy, BP's Gulf oil mess, Iran, Gaza, DPRK, and much else, appeared sagacious, masterly, truly presidential, in the way he dealt with Gen. McChrystal, and in the selection of  Gen. Petraeus for appointment as Commander, ISAF.   

Those qualifications are much needed for successful stewardship of the AfPak situation. 

Would that there was realization that prerequisite to control over the situation in Afghanistan is firmness in forcing Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to stop propagating Wahhabism, and masterminding Terrorism and the Narcotics trade. Default by the US in this respect is the chief reason for the failure of the US-led coalition in Afghanistan to suppress the insurgency; further default will ensure further failure.

The proliferation of rigid and strict Wahhabism and the fiats of Hanbali interpretation of sharia law - in vogue in Saudi Arabia, are pressuring adherents of Sufism, Barelvi School and the Hanafi interpretation of Sharia - traditional to Pakistan and Afghanistan. This is altering belief and outlook to immensely deleterious effect in the entire region. 

Wahhabism warns even professedly Sunni Muslims of reprisals and severe punishment in case they fail to conform strictly with Wahhabi norms and practices. 

In Mingora, the main town of the scenic Swat Valley, Wahhabis beheaded and threw at a crossroads the body of a young Sunni Muslim school teacher for the 'crime' of daring to wear a shalwar not short enough to expose his ankles. Subsequently, as a further indignity and warning, the corpse was hung from a meat hook.

Wahhabism has intensified the campaign of murdering Shias; the Shias being termed 'mushrikeen' and legitimate targets for killing. Terrorists from organizations like the Lashkar-e-Taiyaba, Lashkar-e-Janghvi, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi, and the Sipah-e-Sahiba Pakistan, periodically attack the Shia community.

As violence begets violence, Shias on their part have not remained passive and have armed themselves, are aggressive, and do not lack support from Iran. 

(Sunnis as well as Shias in Pakistan condemn villify and call for the elimination of the Ahmadiya community. The Ahmadiyas remain officially notified in Pakistan as non-muslims, prohibited by law from claiming to be Muslims, or referring to their places of worship as mosques, or even using Islamic greetings. Posters and banners on streets in Pakistan call for the wholesale massacre of the Ahmadiyas - as an act of pious Islamic duty by the faithful.)