UPA cocky, NDA confused - Will economy be the key issue in 2009 general elections?

Rakhi Chakrabarty

Will recession and economic downturn affect the UPA's fortune in the upcoming general elections? Or, will terror dominate the mindspace of voters when they cast their vote?

According to ILO, the effect of economic meltdown will be less severe in India as it is not much exposed to the American economy. Plus, the UPA's star schemes like the NREGA and announcement of sops in the interim budget for the social sector, rural job schemes and approval of infrastructure projects worth Rs 677 billion could bode well for the incumbent UPA.

The NDA, on the other hand, still doesn't have issues strong enough to attack the UPA. It is yet to decide its pitch on terror. And, history shows Ram Mandir has not helped the BJP at the hustings.

Post 26/11, the UPA seemed to have shed its image of not doing enough against terror. Tackling the attack, the swift formation of the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and passing the amended UAPA in its wake have apparently gone down well with a substantial section of people. The diplomatic success with Pakistan accepting the Indian dossier on the Mumbai attacks, too, is might add as a plus for the UPA.

However, regional issues would also affect the poll agenda to a large extent. The widespread agricultural crisis, the allegations of failure in the NREGA implementation, the scenario of mass poverty and joblessness, including in urban areas, the local struggles against SEZs and forcible appropriation of land, amidst massive rise in inflation and fall in real wages is bound to affect the poll outcome. Besides, the betrayal of the aam aadmi slogan, while pampering the fat cats of big business, might have its own political and economic repercussions - as did India Shining of the BJP. More so, it's a well-known fact that rural voters and minority votes affect the fortune of any party in the elections. That is, whichever party consolidates its efforts on these fronts would reap electoral benefits.