Nation-state

By Mahesh Rangarajan

All eyes are on the state of Karnataka as it heads into the election season a year ahead of schedule. As the two major national parties slug it out to get a majority, HD Deve Gowda still hopes to be a spoiler. But the contest is important for more than reasons specific to who governs from the software capital of the country for the next five years.

It may also give a clue to whose fortunes are on the rise in the south. The Congress today has 150 members in the Lok Sabha. Nearly one out of every three, 47 to be precise, is from the south of the Vindhyas. The key to its own accretion lay in Andhra Pradesh where it took a hefty 29 of the total of 42 seats. Next door in Tamil Nadu, the alliance led locally by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), took all 39 seats.

If both look difficult to repeat this time round, the reverse may well hold for the BJP in Karnataka. It not only took all but 10 of the 28 seats, it also emerged for the first time ever in a southern state as the single largest party in the assembly as well. It now hopes to secure a clear majority and build on this base in the forthcoming general elections.

The Congress is still banking on the appeal of the family. History indicates it may not be a walkover. After all, Tamil Nadu is the only state where more than four decades have passed without a Congress government.

Still, the south as a whole has long been a bastion for the Congress in times when the north was in revolt against its dominance. In 1977, when there were just two Congress MPs in the Lok Sabha from the entire Hindi belt, the south solidly voted for the ruling party and its allies. They won as many as 116 of the 130 seats in the four southern states.

Even in the Rajiv Gandhi era, as its hegemony crumbled, this was a region where its top leaders could strike an easy rapport with the masses. In 1989, again, the Congress struck the right alliance in Tamil Nadu and cashed in on the unpopularity of the regional parties in power in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. A decade later in 1999, Sonia Gandhi followed suit by winning the election from Bellary, Karnataka.

The family that has led the Congress for most of its post-independence history has also repaid its debts in more than one way. In 1978, Mrs Indira Gandhi chose Chikmagalur in Karnataka for her successful bid to re-enter the Lok Sabha. In 1980, she preferred to retain her seat in Medak, Andhra Pradesh, rather than her old bailiwick of Rae Bareli, UP. In 1998, Sonia joined Rahul and Priyanka at a rally near Sriperumbudur, where, for the first time, she urged voters to stay with her late husband's party.

Yet, there is a precedent that ought to worry the Congress. In 1996, it was wiped out in Tamil Nadu and dented in Andhra Pradesh as well as Karnataka. This was what enabled N Chandrababu Naidu to emerge as king- maker and HD Deve Gowda as prime minister in the short-lived United Front government in the Centre.

Things can go awry in more ways than one. Tamil Nadu is chafing under the rule of the DMK which has a stranglehold on power both in Chennai and in New Delhi. If the State swings from one extreme to the other, Andhra no more looks a comfort zone. The Telengana issue can hurt the Congress in 14 of the 42 seats. Elsewhere, Naidu has been campaigning hard among the farmers and the poor who deserted him in the last polls. Karnataka is up for grabs. Kerala alone augurs well for the Congress. But with just 20 seats, it may count for less.

Since 1991, the southern region of India has held the key to power in New Delhi. Whether Congress can recover or hold ground may decide its fate and the country's.

The writers teaches History at Delhi University