Editorial: Things Fall Apart…The Centre Must Hold

Our neighbourhood is on fire. Violence threatens to unravel Pakistan. The Taliban are threatening to overrun the civilian government. In Sri Lanka, the internecine war with Tamils has the potential to turn bloodier and uglier and this can singe even Tamil Nadu. Neighbouring Bangladesh and Nepal are in the throes of instability. India may seem tranquil in comparison to its neighbours, but Maoist violence and terror attacks by Islamic and Hindutva radicals threaten to lapse the large mass of the country into a spiral of bloodshed and instability.

What is really exacerbating this crisis is the manner in which foreign policy of countries is getting impacted by the global slowdown. The US has spent copious funds in their "war on terror" and installed puppet regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan after the 2001 WTC atrocities. It is going through a period of reflection. Unwinding of US foreign policy is visible at different levels after President Barack Obama took over in January this year. He has put together a timetable of withdrawal of troops from Iraq and unveiled plans to stabilise Afghanistan that, in his reckoning, is crucial for the security of the US. In his new Af-Pak policy, he has tried to address the basic question of why the US is in Afghanistan and made a tactical shift that till Pakistan is sorted out, the region and the world will remain unsafe. It is an important departure from the policy of his predecessor who treated Pakistan as a frontline State against terror.

Obama's policy, in some ways, is a reiteration of what India has been saying all along; that the Pakistani army and its intelligence agency, ISI, has been the cause for this region's sorrow. India has done well in the past few years to keep hammering its charge that Pakistan is pandering to terrorists and non-state actors to execute some of its agenda, but it needs to go many steps further by protecting its flanks so that the mess of the neighbourhood does not spill over this side. And, this is only possible if there is a government at the Centre that is mindful of both its foreign and domestic commitments.

There are fears in the strategic establishment that a badly hung House after elections could undermine whatever gains the Indian government may have made in the last few years. They apprehend that an unstable regime in Delhi, pulled in different directions, would make it difficult to resolutely engage the neighbours and other powers that are re-negotiating the terms of engagement.

China, which has suddenly become very powerful due to dependence of the US and other western powers on its market and foreign exchange reserves after the global slowdown, would require careful and creative handling. China benefited from the last currency crisis of 1997 and this time around its area of influence may reach mind-boggling proportions. A weak government backed by an ambivalent strategic establishment could bring about great harm to national interest.

India, in comparison to many countries of the emerging world, is quite well placed in a post-meltdown world. It is one of the few countries that indicates the promise of an early revival. India also seems good enough to attract increased foreign direct investments from countries that have poor fundamentals. The major reason for this is that the rate of growth in India is real and the banks are still solvent. However, a weak Centre could unleash forces that might undermine this stability and make it vulnerable to external pressures.

From this standpoint, the outcome of the election results would be seen with great interest by both our friends and foes. A slight crack in the country's resolve would lend energy to fissiparous and centrifugal forces to undo the gains of the last many years. It remains to be seen whether those who jostle for power after the results come out on May 16 are aware of the challenges that stare at them. They should be cognisant of this simple truth that it is good governance and the welfare of the people that gives strength to foreign policy. As long as the government is just and genuinely cares for the poor and needy, there is nothing that those who have an evil eye on India can really do.