For centuries, Europe stood at the epicenter of global power. Its empires shaped the modern world, and its culture, philosophy, and industrial revolutions radiated outward to redefine civilization. But after 1945, Europe ceded primacy first to Washington and Moscow, and later found itself caught between a resurgent United States and a rising China.
The European Union was born out of an ambitious vision: to overcome centuries of fratricidal rivalry, to bind together victors and vanquished alike, and to rebuild a devastated continent. The founding fathers—Schuman, Monnet, Adenauer, De Gasperi—dreamed of peace, reconstruction, and of maintaining global influence, even if only as an economic powerhouse. Yet those aspirations have today turned into illusions, unattainable in the face of accelerating decline.
Europe is sliding into a multidimensional crisis that threatens to reduce it to a mere spectator in a world stage redefined by the United States, China, and, increasingly, India—a country that has already surpassed Europe in population, GDP growth, and military capacity, and which now demands a voice equal to its demographic and economic weight.
Political Irrelevance: From Protagonist to Extra
The European Union suffers from chronic paralysis. Its decision-making structure, which demands unanimity in foreign policy, has transformed the Common Foreign and Security Policy into a rhetorical exercise. What was once hailed as the collective voice of more than 450 million citizens—the proudest democracies on earth—has been reduced to cacophony.
Europe no longer plays a central role in the defining strategic crises of our era: Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran’s destabilizing aggression, or Ukraine. Once a protagonist, Europe has been relegated to the role of an extra. The image is pitiful: endless debates, delayed responses, timid sanctions. China, by contrast, faces no such constraints and, challenged only by the United States, has already stripped Europe of its status as the world’s second economic-financial power.
Internal divisions have paralyzed Europe and left it exposed to external manipulation. Russia’s control of 40 percent of Europe’s gas supply before 2022 was enough to limit the EU’s response to Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine. Europe fell back on U.S. leadership, forced to align with Washington’s sanctions. Europe’s own sanctions in 2008, after Russia’s invasion of Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and again in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea, were timid, cowardly, and self-serving.
In the Middle East, Europe has steadily lost influence. Hamas and Hezbollah are formally condemned, but decisive measures to cripple them have been absent. Worse still, the EU distinguished between Hezbollah’s “armed wing” and the rest of the organization, as if its political leadership were not equally devoted to terror, subjugation of Lebanon, and the destruction of Israel. Hezbollah in its entirety is an Iranian proxy, not merely its military wing.
Even after Iranian operatives attempted to stage a bombing in Paris in 2018—with Assadollah Assadi, a serving diplomat, personally implicated—Europe failed to take decisive measures against Tehran. Such cowardice has eroded Europe’s credibility in the region, especially when contrasted with Washington’s resolve. As the European Council on Foreign Relations warned, Europe has become a “secondary actor” in critical global negotiations.
Geostrategic Weakness: Europe as a Protectorate
Despite recent rearmament announcements in Poland, Germany, and the Baltic states, and the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, Europe remains a strategic protectorate of the United States.
The EU’s collective defense spending barely reaches $280 billion, scattered across 27 separate armies riddled with duplication and inefficiency. The United States, by contrast, spends more than $860 billion—3.5 percent of its GDP compared with Europe’s paltry 1.7 percent average.
Even significant efforts, such as Germany’s €100 billion special fund or Poland’s determination to devote 5 percent of GDP to defense (a target embraced by NATO, though not by Spain’s current government), fall short. Europe still relies on Washington for satellite intelligence, missile defense, force projection, and nuclear deterrence. Only France retains an autonomous nuclear arsenal; Britain’s relies on U.S. Trident II missiles, under delicate licensing arrangements.
The war in Ukraine exposed Europe’s structural military weakness with brutal clarity: depleted stockpiles, shortages of ammunition, and negligible production capacity. Europe can react but cannot plan. It re-arms, but under pressure, in response to crises, and above all under the fear that the U.S. shield may one day be withdrawn.
As Henry Kissinger once observed, “Europe will remain irrelevant unless it can speak with one voice.” A quarter-century later, those words have never rung truer.
Economic Collapse: Divergence Made Visible
The erosion of economic power is perhaps the clearest symptom of Europe’s decline. In 2000, the EU accounted for 25 percent of global GDP, with an $8.6 trillion economy nearly matching the United States at $10.2 trillion. Many predicted that the euro might one day rival the dollar.
By 2025, the picture is stark. The United States has surged past $29 trillion, maintaining roughly 25 percent of world GDP, while the EU stagnates around $17 trillion—barely 14 percent of the total. The decline is incontrovertible: in a quarter-century, America has tripled its GDP; the Eurozone has merely doubled. China has surpassed both in purchasing power parity. And India, once a peripheral player, has emerged as a giant.
GDP Comparison (2000 vs 2025, IMF data)
– United States: $10.2 trillion → $29 trillion
– European Union (27): $8.6 trillion → $17 trillion
– China: $1.2 trillion → $21 trillion
– India: $0.5 trillion → $4.3 trillion
India’s economy, once a fraction of Europe’s, is now closing in on parity with the Eurozone in dynamism. Former IMF chief economist Arvind Subramanian calls India “a rising giant reshaping global balances.”
Europe’s divergence reflects mismanagement of crises. In 2008, Europe chose austerity, while the U.S. unleashed massive stimulus. The result was a faster, more robust American recovery, while Europe stagnated.
Deindustrialization: From Powerhouse to Museum
Europe’s industrial muscle has atrophied. Entire sectors—textiles, shipbuilding, electronics—have disappeared from France, Italy, and Spain. Production has been offshored to Asia. Germany still clings to excellence, but even its famed export model strains under relentless Chinese competition.
Spain epitomizes this trend: industry represents just 15 percent of GDP, compared with Germany’s 22 percent. High energy costs, stifling regulations, and unfair competition compound the problem.
The United States, by contrast, has revived its industry thanks to cheap shale gas. Europe, in the name of a poorly designed and rushed green transition, has sacrificed competitiveness. The risk is becoming, as I once wrote, “an industrial museum of past glories.”
The Lost Technological Race
Europe has lost the technology race. Investment in research, development, and innovation remains a mediocre 2.2 percent of GDP—far below America’s 3.5 percent or South Korea’s 4 percent.
The result: a hemorrhage of talent. Thousands of engineers and researchers depart for more dynamic ecosystems. Europe has no technological giants of its own in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, or cloud computing. Its share of global semiconductor production has fallen below 10 percent. Strategic dependence on Taiwan is a ticking time bomb.
As The Economist noted earlier this year, Europe “legislates where others innovate.” The European Commission’s obsession with overregulation drives away investment and leaves the continent strategically dependent. Without digital sovereignty, political sovereignty is a mirage.
Institutional Decay and Mediocre Elites
The founding fathers of Europe were visionaries; today’s leaders are mediocrities. Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman dreamed of a united, strong Europe. Their successors preside over an EU adrift, its citizens increasingly skeptical, its institutions opaque.
Brussels’ bureaucracy exercises immense influence without adequate political or judicial oversight. The result is systemic opacity and a perception of institutions detached from everyday concerns. Populism and euroskepticism feed off this void.
As McKinsey recently observed, “Europe’s institutions are designed for stability, not speed.” In a world that prizes agility, this is a recipe for irrelevance.
Demographic Implosion: A Slow-Motion Suicide
Europe faces a demographic time bomb. Fertility averages just 1.5 children per woman; in Italy and Spain it is as low as 1.2. By 2050, one in three Europeans will be over 65. Europe will lose 5 to 10 million people, even under optimistic forecasts, while the U.S. adds 35 million.
Demographic Projections for 2050 (UN data)
– European Union (27 + UK, Norway, Switzerland): population decline of 5–10 million; median age above 48
– United States: +35 million; median age 42
– India: +250 million; median age 34
– China: decline of 60–70 million; median age 50
India’s youthful pyramid contrasts sharply with Europe’s inverted one. While Europe ages into irrelevance, India projects dynamism, its vast youth cohort an engine of productivity.
The implications for Europe are devastating: collapsing pension and healthcare systems, declining productivity, and accelerating brain drain. As SIPRI has observed, “demography is destiny in geopolitics.” By that measure, Europe’s destiny is grim.
Humiliation as a Symbol
The recent Washington summit between Presidents Trump and Zelensky was the brutal illustration of Europe’s decline. European leaders, seated deferentially across the Resolute Desk, looked less like allies than subordinates. The symbolism was unmistakable: America commands, Europe complies.
The image of European leaders entering the West Wing through a side door while others received honors will be seared into the historical record.
Europe is undergoing systemic decline on every front—political, strategic, economic, industrial, technological, demographic. It risks becoming a power without weight or influence in the emerging world order.
Let us be clear: for decades, Europeans predicted the decline of the American empire. Yet it is Europe that hurtles headlong toward irrelevance, unless urgent remedies are found.
Gustavo de Arístegui is a diplomat and former ambassador of Spain to India, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.
(Cover Photo: Canva)
ChinaeconomyEuropeEuropean Union.euroskepticismGeopolitical ConflictsGeopoliticsGeostrategicIndiaPoliticsRussiaUnited States of AmericaUSA