The Middle East Remains the Epicenter of Global Instability

The Middle East continues to serve as the focal point of global unrest, where the Palestinian-Israeli peace process languishes in a near-irreversible stasis, while the broader region—from Lebanon to Syria, Iraq, and the looming Iranian threat—breeds escalating tensions, power realignments, and the persistent use of terrorism as a political tool. The international community faces the daunting challenge of navigating this intricate web with strategic clarity, eschewing ideological oversimplification.

A Moribund Process: The Palestinian-Israeli Peace in Deadlock

The optimism sparked by the Oslo Accords in 1993—born from the visionary momentum of the 1991 Madrid Conference—has been buried by history. The assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, at the hands of a Jewish extremist, not only shattered a historic opportunity but also ushered in an era in Israel marked by deepening skepticism toward the prospects of peace.

Since 2007, Gaza has been under the iron grip of Hamas, an organization that is textbook terrorist and mafia-like; to deny this would be, quite simply, immoral. Hamas’s strategy has relied on the systematic use of terror, establishing itself as the primary barrier to any rational dialogue. In parallel, the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank—many in strategically vital areas—has blurred the outlines of a potential two-state solution, stifling the viability of a future Palestinian state. The challenge posed to the Israeli state by its most radical settlers, who attack Palestinians, is deeply concerning; recent cases include the beating death of a Palestinian-American and the arson of crops, destruction of vehicles, and agricultural equipment in the Christian village of Taibeh. Even the Israeli army is not spared the settlers’ wrath: IDF patrols are assaulted and harassed without restraint. It bears noting that even the United States regards these West Bank settlements as contrary to international law.

The Palestinian Authority (PA), for its part, has failed to rise to the occasion. The PA is riddled with structural and systemic corruption. Its leadership is an exhausted gerontocracy—devoid of fresh ideas, incompetent in governance, and thoroughly discredited. And these are the figures expected to take over from Hamas’s terrorist rule in Gaza. The Gazans, already suffering under Hamas’s terror and oppression, will transition to the inept kleptocracy of the PA, which has lost much of its legitimacy and capacity for dialogue—putting it delicately in diplomatic terms. More bluntly: it is profoundly tragic that, at this juncture, saving Palestinians from Hamas’s barbarity requires turning to the discredited, corrupt, and incompetent PA. Even Human Rights Watch has documented persistent grave irregularities in the use of international funds and budgetary diversions (the infamous embezzlement that has been downplayed in our latitudes), not to mention internal repression against critical Palestinians, opponents, or dissidents.

In this incendiary landscape, international efforts—such as the United Nations conference attempted in June 2025 (postponed indefinitely) or the brief ceasefire between Israel and Hamas from January to March of this year—have amounted to little more than pouring a glass of water on a sixth-generation forest fire.

Recent opinion polls from the Pew Research Center are alarmingly revealing: only 21% of Israeli citizens believe in the viability of peaceful coexistence with Palestinians. Skepticism and disillusionment have taken root deeply, and it will be exceedingly difficult to shatter this perception among the majority of Israelis; without majority public support in Israel, the peace process is mere wet paper. This state of opinion is the perfect breeding ground for Hamas to flourish, fertilized by the manure of the ayatollahs’ regime.

Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq: Fragile States in a Turbulent Region

Beyond the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the region is crisscrossed by waves of structural instability. Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq are paradigmatic examples of weak states where sectarian dynamics and longstanding rivalries, fueled by Iranian influence, persist. Despite the implosion of the Al-Assad regime, Iran still has its claws deeply embedded in Syria. The systematic use of terrorism as an instrument of power and oppression in the region—by Iran and its proxies, as well as by the international jihadist movement (though Daesh and Al Qaeda are sworn enemies, their nemesis remains the regional states and the West)—poses a brutal and perpetual threat to peace and stability. The terrorist organizations and states in the region wallow in the bloody sty of their bestial violence. Therefore, if regional actors do not confront all terrorist entities—organizations, militias, and states that practice, promote, inspire, and finance it—with courage and without hesitation, any attempt at institutional reconstruction or regional integration will remain a chimera.

Lebanon, though it has achieved some institutional progress with the election of Joseph Aoun as president in January 2025—a man of clear principles and solid values who has connected with moderate Sunni and Shiite Muslims, as well as the Christian community to which he belongs—continues to suffer, albeit weakened, under the yoke of Hezbollah. Lebanon’s president must be a Maronite Christian according to the 1943 constitutional pact, reinforced by the Saudi-sponsored Taif Accords. Aoun’s candidacy was backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah, a terrorist militia and central element of the Iranian proxy alliance integrated into the execrable “Axis of Resistance,” was severely battered and decapitated by Israel, yet it still retains significant destabilizing capacity.

Lebanon’s political paralysis, caused by the cancer of Hezbollah and foreign interference—especially Iranian—has blocked the political and institutional evolution expected after the Taif Accords. While those accords preserved the confessional distribution of key state positions, they introduced a modicum of modernity that was never realized. Lebanon remains largely governed by the same warlords—bloodthirsty as they are leech-like—who have perched atop another kleptocracy, bleeding their people dry since 1943. The only path to normalization and the rule of law is to disarm terrorist militias, both Palestinian in refugee camps and Hezbollah, thereby breaking their control over significant portions of the population and severing their links to terrorist regimes like Iran or organized crime.

Syria is undergoing a particularly delicate transition. The fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, after eleven years of civil war, has opened the door to new leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose terrorist origins as a member of Al-Nusra remain a cause for concern. Al-Sharaa appears to have evolved, and many key regional countries have placed a significant bet by supporting the new regime politically and economically. This includes incipient normalization with Washington, which has lifted sanctions on Syria at Saudi Arabia’s behest. However, the scars of the conflict remain open: sectarian massacres (killings of Christians and Alawites), tensions among rebel factions, and the influence of external powers like Iran and Russia continue to breed uncertainty and instability.

Iraq, meanwhile, remains hostage to its internal fragmentation and Iranian penetration. Shiite militias grouped under the Popular Mobilization Forces, some with direct ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, wield de facto power that undermines the central government’s authority. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, in office since 2022, grapples with endemic corruption and constant pressure from Tehran. Tensions with the United States persist, particularly after attacks on U.S. military bases and amid the agreed withdrawal plan for 2026.

Conclusion: Strategic Firmness and Diplomatic Realism

The diagnosis is clear: in July 2025, the Middle East is trapped between political inertia, the collapse of state structures, and the rise of non-state armed actors who impose their law with impunity. The Palestinian-Israeli peace process demands more than good intentions: it requires courageous leaders, pragmatic international support, and firm pressure on those sabotaging progress, starting with Hamas.

The fight against terrorism cannot remain fragmented or conditioned by ideological agendas. Groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shiite militias are not expressions of legitimate resistance but instruments of destabilization serving a regime like Iran’s—the central destabilizing element in the region, whose barbarity begins with its own people.

It is time to abandon postmodern illusions and accept that security, order, and lasting peace will only be possible through an intelligent combination of firm diplomacy, coordinated international pressure, support for the institutional strengthening of legitimate states, and an unrelenting fight against terrorism and extremism.

Gustavo de Arístegui is a Spanish Diplomat, Author and was Spain’s ambassador to India (2012-2016).(Cover Photo: Middle East Civil Resistance. Photo by Canva)

Civil UnrestDiplomacyGazaglobal powerHamasHezbollahHuman RightsIranIraqIsraelLebanonMiddle EastMuslimPalestinePolitical CrisisPoliticsResistanceSaudi ArabiaShia-SunniSyriaUnited States of AmericaWar