Rahul Gandhi claims that the BJP stole what was otherwise a certain Congress win in the 2024 general elections, through what he calls vote theft—or “votechori”—in every constituency. His party believes that the INDIA alliance may have lost as many as 100 seats they would have otherwise won. Rahul Gandhi may be right.

The two big questions are: Why did he choose to highlight the issue of election theft more than a year later? And why was there no public outrage from voters who were allegedly short-changed by the ruling party’s manipulation of the elections?

Though Rahul Gandhi offered an explanation during his much-publicized press conference, stating that the delay was due to the time taken to gather evidence against an uncooperative Election Commission, questions still linger.

To the question—why didn’t people display anger over a stolen election?—the main reasons, which have rarely been discussed, may have to do with the majoritarian character of Indian society and that of the BJP. Though numbers don’t always stack up in the BJP’s favour, the noisy chattering classes—mostly upper-caste Hindus and BJP supporters—create a chimera of doubt about the winnability of non-BJP parties.

Expectedly, no one really believes in an opposition win or feels rage against an inefficient BJP government. “Its anti-minority politics serves them both socially and electorally,” explained a well-informed political observer.

This reporter visited scores of constituencies in different parts of the country, and visibly, the BJP had no clear reason to come back to power in 2024. In Meerut city—where the BJP looked invincible in April 2024, a month before the poll—a prescient politician associated with the ruling party said, “It is difficult for the BJP and its allies to get more than 40 seats from UP. Chief Minister Yogi is very unpopular. He will sink the party.”

No one truly believed him at the time. But these dark forebodings for the ruling party came true.

In Varanasi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s constituency, the BJP seemed to be staring at certain defeat. Despite colossal expenditure by the central government, the ruling party looked uncertain about winning any seat in or around Varanasi. “Why just Varanasi? The BJP will lose all seats in and around the city,” claimed a university professor who, not long ago, swore by the PM.

For this reporter, that was a shock. Everywhere in Varanasi, the imprint of a potential BJP setback was unmistakable. Near Namo Ghat—named after the Prime Minister to satisfy his unquenchable narcissism—a boatman was scathing in his remarks.

He said he had an MA degree but dared not tell his family back home that he was working as a boatman, as it would break their hearts. “There are no jobs in the city or anywhere,” he lamented. “Modi’s policies have destroyed everything. There are no jobs for the youth.” He further accused the government of awarding all the urban construction projects to Gujaratis—none to locals from his own state.

This allegation was repeated ad nauseam across the state. Even in the temple town of Ayodhya, similar accusations of favoritism were heard regarding contracts being granted to people from Gujarat—albeit without producing necessary corroboration.

It didn’t seem like Varanasi really voted for Modi. His Congress opponent was reportedly leading after the initial rounds of counting, when the process was suddenly stopped. No explanation was given for this interruption. When counting resumed, the tide had mysteriously turned in Modi’s favour.

Little wonder, then, that Ajay Rai has been echoing the same charges that Rahul Gandhi has been making—that the Congress’s vote was stolen in 2024.

As a reporter who has covered elections from across the country for over 30 years, it seemed clear that the BJP was heading for a rout in UP and other states. The “mahaul”—the general political atmosphere, a touchstone journalists rely on to gauge who’s winning or losing—was ignored by the new order.

As a journalist, I was usually correct in reading elections. I used the only tools available to us—conversations with people from different walks of life: lawyers, teachers, police officers, and so on. Also useful were intelligence reports, which, though often biased, offered insights.

Generally, news professionals got it right. But all that changed when the ruling party began to give primacy to opinion polls—tools used more to bend opinions than to assess them. Some pollsters got their predictions right, but they were vague or dodgy about how they arrived at their conclusions. In many cases, the conclusions didn’t match their own data.

For instance, a poll might suggest that most seats in a state were coming from region X, but in the final results, the same number of seats would come from region Y.

Due to the rising influence of such opinion polls, professional journalists lost their relevance. In their place emerged all kinds of questionable pollsters, mostly propped up by the ruling party.

Freed from journalistic scrutiny, the political establishment could manipulate electoral rolls—as highlighted by Rahul Gandhi. He raised a pertinent question: Why does the BJP not suffer from anti-incumbency like all other parties? Rahul alleges that the number of voters ballooned suspiciously since the last election.

These issues were brought to the Congress leadership’s attention repeatedly, but for some reason, they hesitated to act. In Gujarat in 2017, the BJP was facing certain defeat due to the effects of demonetisation and the Patel agitation in Surat district.

Surprisingly, the party won even when its candidates believed they had lost. District collectors, it was alleged, changed the course of the polls. It took considerable effort by Rahul Gandhi and his advisor Sam Pitroda to mollify enraged Congress workers, but nothing substantial came of it—even though several election petitions were filed.

Post-2024, Rahul has been saying categorically that a sure win was stolen from the Congress. He has identified 75 seats that he believes should have gone to the INDIA alliance. He is expected to present evidence soon.

So, a year after the loss, why is Rahul Gandhi once again raising this issue against the Election Commission?

Has the bell begun to toll for the NDA government—or has Rahul Gandhi got his numbers wrong again?

SANJAY KAPOOR is a Senior Journalist based out of Delhi. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India, its neighbourhood and West Asia. He is the Founder and Editor of Hardnews Magazine. He is a Member of the Editors Guild of India (EGI) and, until recently, served as the General Secretary of EGI.

(Cover Photo: Rahul Gandhi on Vote Chori. Photo Credit: https://rahulgandhi.in/awaazbharatki/votechori)

BJPDemonetizationECIElection CommissionINDIA BlocKarnatakaMaharashtraNarendra ModiNDAOpposition Partyrahul gandhiVaranasiVote TheftVoteChori