The rapprochement between Russia and China is, without question, one of the most consequential and troubling developments in today’s geopolitics. And yet it is an alliance riddled with contradictions. The two countries share 4,209 kilometers of land border, a frontier that separates a demographic giant—China, bursting with population pressure—from an immense and almost empty land—Siberia—where more than 30 percent of the population is already of Chinese origin. That imbalance contains the seeds of future tensions and, perhaps, of inevitable conflict in the medium term.
Many analysts describe this alliance as little more than a marriage of convenience. Moscow needs Beijing as a client for its energy and as a political partner against the West; Beijing needs Moscow as a supplier of raw materials and as a strategic shield in its contest with Washington. Yet the underlying interests diverge. Russia fears being reduced to the junior partner in an asymmetric relationship; China has never relinquished its view of Siberia as a natural space for expansion.
Still, if Donald Trump is right about anything—and sometimes he is—it is that Europe’s own strategic mistakes have driven this convergence. Miscalculated sanctions, energy blindness, and the European Union’s chronic inability to forge a coherent strategic diplomacy have pushed Putin and Xi into a collaboration that, while fragile, is today a fact. What might have been an inevitable rupture has been suspended in a pause, one that may last longer than many expect. And that pause will depend less on Moscow or Beijing than on the intelligence—or more accurately, the lack thereof—of Western diplomacy. To speak of intelligent Western diplomacy in 2025 is, I fear, a monumental oxymoron.
The Authoritarian International—or the ODU
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has evolved into far more than a regional forum. It could be described as the “Authoritarian International”; or, more bluntly still, the “ODU: Organization of Dictatorships United.” At its core are China and Russia, joined by Iran—an unabashed promoter of terrorism and regional instability—and Belarus, a pariah state and Russian puppet.
Xi Jinping himself labeled the latest summit the “Disruption Summit.” And the phrase was no accident. What the world witnessed was a fist slammed on the table, not a kick that toppled it over. China has no interest in destroying the international order but in reshaping it to its own advantage. It wants to keep playing the game, but by its own rules—asserting its importance, extending its influence, and consolidating its economic, financial, and political power.
China: A Commercial Power with Strategic Clay Feet
China’s military strength has yet to match its global ambitions. Economically, it remains dangerously dependent on a single chokepoint: the Strait of Malacca, through which the vast majority of its energy imports and industrial exports flow. This vulnerability haunts the Chinese leadership.
Beijing’s response has been threefold:
• expanding its permanent presence in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia;
• strengthening its strategic partnership with Russia;
• and, above all, pushing forward the Belt and Road Initiative, conceived as a terrestrial and rail alternative to Malacca.
Beijing’s Stagecraft: A Revisionist Bloc on Parade
The military parade in Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of victory in the Second World War was more than commemoration—it was political theater of the highest order. Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong-un standing side by side offered the world the unmistakable image of a revisionist bloc determined to challenge Western hegemony.
China unveiled hypersonic missiles and next-generation drones. The message was unequivocal: Xi sought to reinforce his domestic leadership and to project an image of unity against Washington and its allies. The invitation extended to North Korea to take part in the grandiose celebrations only underscored the provocative intent.
India’s Uncomfortable Position
The presence of India at the summit sends an ambiguous signal. For Trump and for the West, India is a crucial strategic partner. Its ties with European powers are longstanding, and the United Kingdom has effectively become an extension of India’s social and business world. Lest we forget, the wealthiest family in Britain today is not British at all, but the Indian Hinduja family.
Yet India’s ambition to become a global power rests on balance and prudence, not on alignment with authoritarian blocs. As many of my interlocutors in New Delhi reminded me during my tenure as Spain’s ambassador, India’s geopolitical and geostrategic independence is inalienable.
It is precisely for this reason that the secondary punitive tariffs imposed by Trump on India are so reckless. Narendra Modi is not a man who bows to ultimatums; he is a man to be engaged through negotiation. India’s national pride will not abide humiliation. Should the West persist in such foolish strategic blunders, it could one day awaken to the unpleasant surprise that its great hope for containing China has turned, if not into an outright enemy, then into a resentful ex-friend. And that would indeed be another sovereign and incomprehensible Western stupidity—yet another in this troubled century.
A Chessboard with New Rules
The SCO is no longer a peripheral club. It has become the platform from which Beijing and Moscow seek to reorder global geopolitics. What is at stake is not merely economic integration but the emergence of a new epicenter of power in Eurasia.
And let us be perfectly clear: China does not want to overturn the chessboard—it wants the game to be played by its rules.
Gustavo de Arístegui is a diplomat and former ambassador of Spain to India, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.
(Cover Photo: President Xi Jinping with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Courtesy: http://in.china-embassy.gov.cn/)
Authoritarian InternationalChinaDisruption SummitDonald TrumpEurasiaGeopoliticsNarendra ModiPM Narendra ModiPoliticsPowerPlayRussiaShanghai Cooperation OrganizationUSAVladimir PutinXi Jinping