New Delhi: News from Moscow and Beijing for New Delhi is not so comforting. It is reliably learnt that the two powers will not pull any punches when they converge in Delhi for the BRICS Summit on September 12–13, 2026. Along with Brazil, both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping are of the strong belief that India, which is hosting the BRICS summit, will oppose any move against the US.
Hence, they believe there would be no de-dollarisation that allows trade in national currencies, nor would there be any attempt to criticise Israel over the war in Gaza or a demand for reform of the UN—all issues that are critical for India and other developing countries.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that India, despite the support it may receive from a new BRICS member, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which holds a similar worldview to the US and Israel, may find it difficult even to craft a joint resolution that is agreeable to all.
That will be a setback for India, as the big BRICS nations are determined to push New Delhi into a corner. Insiders even go to the extent of predicting a make-or-break situation for BRICS and possibly putting the host country in the dock. Now, sources claim, India will find it difficult to ride on two boats.
Ever since New Delhi was chosen to host the BRICS Summit, the global reality has become more complex, with the US and Israel attacking Iran and the West Asian nation retaliating against the US by bombing its bases across the Gulf countries located in its neighbourhood.
This means that, for the first time, we have a situation where two members of BRICS—Iran and the UAE—would be at war with each other. What has aggravated the relationship is that US President Donald Trump and his Finance Secretary, Scott Bessent, reportedly called UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) to sever trade ties with Iran.
This single move is likely to hurt Iran far more than all the damage Tomahawk missiles may have inflicted on the West Asian nation. Iran fears that its main trading partner, the UAE, will stop buying its oil. Last month, it earned US$5.7 billion from oil exports through the UAE.
Now, the Iranians will not be able to swap or buy essential goods from the Emirati country. Iran fears that its unemployment problem will soar and essential items will disappear from its shelves. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has also expressed fears about the economic catastrophe facing the country.
If the UAE stops trading with Iran altogether, then either there will be a new war between the US and Iran, or worse, Iran could devastate the wealthy Gulf country. Conversely, there could be a possibility of Iranians advocating peace, as the tiny nation of Oman—a stakeholder in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz—has also been threatened with war by the US.
Iran’s problems have multiplied with US President Donald Trump declaring the Strait of Hormuz as US territory. The Strait has traditionally been controlled by Iran, but during the recent war, it came under renewed attention from the US President, who offered Tehran the possibility of imposing tolls on ships passing through it.
Some 130 ships laden with oil and cargo pass through this critical strait. Now, the US blockade, accompanied by claims from Tehran that it is also blocking the waterway, has confused the picture, compelling many countries to either wait for the US to triumph and take control of the controversial strait or hope for a return to the pre-war situation.
As this is unlikely to happen any time soon—until one of the countries claims a decisive victory—many countries are looking for alternative routes.
BRICS nations such as Russia and China are looking for viable routes to escape the Hormuz trap. They no longer want to be mired in a war related to, or prompted by, radicalism inspired by religion when they could instead be engaged in trade.
The Chinese are looking to leverage their close ties with Russia and the new Arctic sea passage, colourfully called the “Ice Silk Route”, which begins from Ningbo in China, cuts through Russia’s Northern Sea Route and, after cruising through the North Sea, culminates in Felixstowe in England.
In this way, ships will reduce journey times by half while also avoiding the turbulent Strait of Hormuz or Bab-el-Mandeb in the Red Sea. Ideally, China and Russia would also like to rely more on the Siberian trade route and avoid dependence on the Suez Canal or the Strait of Hormuz altogether.
This is also intended to change the way the world conducts business and reduce dependence on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Similarly, the Indian government is exploring an offer from the Russian government for a maritime route connecting Chennai to Vladivostok.
Whatever the reasons behind the US-Iran conflict, there is a need to remember the timing of the Hamas attack. This was a fact reiterated by former US President Joe Biden after he returned from Delhi’s G20 event.
It was on the sidelines of the G20 that the announcement was made, along with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, about the coming of a new corridor—IMEC—that would link South Asia with the Middle East and Europe and finally connect with the US.
It was an ambitious project that would sideline countries hostile towards the US while bringing nations such as Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia into a tighter embrace.
A month after the announcement of IMEC, Hamas attacked Israel. The subsequent war in Gaza and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s determination to take out Iran, which he believed was the last country standing against Israel, further complicated the geopolitical landscape.
As reports in the US media indicate, Israel managed to sell a lemon to US President Donald Trump by convincing him that Tehran would be easy to defeat and would wilt like Venezuela when attacked by US special forces.
Iran weathered the attack even though it lost its Supreme Leader and the country was badly savaged. Though the country is still standing up to the global hegemon, there is a rethink within its political leadership that it needs to revive the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed in Geneva.
Former President Mohammad Khatami has been among the most vocal in demanding a return to diplomacy.
US President Donald Trump, in his usual erratic manner, is claiming ownership of the Strait of Hormuz and threatening war against Iran if it does not budge from its claim over the strait’s waters.
It is a tricky situation, one that could come to a head during the BRICS Summit in Delhi on September 12–13, 2026, where the Indian government will have to search for answers that go beyond its claim of strategic autonomy—a policy that has, over the years, meant different things to different countries.
(Cover Image: The Union Minister for Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Shri Bhupender Yadav attends the BRICS Environment Ministers’ Meeting being held under India’s BRICS Chairpersonship – 2026 at Bharat Mandapam, in New Delhi on August 18, 2026. PIB Photo)
BRICSBRICS SummitChinaDonald TrumpIndiainternational relationsIranIsraelOilPakistanPoliticsRussiaStrait of HormuzUAEUNUSA