Elections to the Bihar Assembly have witnessed an extraordinary voter turnout. In the second phase, it went up to 70 percent—about 5 percent higher than the first phase. In the past, voter turnout has generally been low, which has often allowed the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to come to power—by hook or by crook.
What has left the political class befuddled is trying to make sense of this unusually high voter turnout. Is it driven by anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar’s coalition government, or is it due to women voters pleased with the BJP government’s largesse of ₹10,000 that was given to them?
Analyses have mostly been one-sided about why there is a surge in voter turnout and why it seems to have benefited the NDA led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Though the BJP has not officially announced Nitish Kumar as its chief ministerial candidate, expectations are that if his party emerges as the single largest, the BJP leadership—Narendra Modi and Amit Shah—will have no choice but to make him the Chief Minister of India’s second most populous state.
Despite his shortcomings, Nitish Kumar remains acceptable to a large section of people in Bihar and across political parties. The general belief is that he would not allow harm to the state and would work in its best interest. That assertion, however, has been challenged by the campaign narrative of his opponents—the Tejashwi Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress Party.
Nitish’s critics claim he has failed to safeguard Bihar’s interests and has allowed industries to relocate to Gujarat, Prime Minister Modi’s home state. His Home Minister, Amit Shah, also from Gujarat, has claimed that Bihar has no land available for factories. This statement has angered many in Bihar, where people often migrate long distances in search of work. Rough estimates suggest that about 2.5 crore Biharis work outside the state. Their hardship would ease considerably if industries were set up locally.
Although some government schemes have benefitted common citizens, poverty remains widespread. Cognizant of the dire need for cash among ordinary people, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a ₹10,000 payment to women in the state—a move many found bizarre. While the announcement came before the campaign officially began, the money was transferred to accounts just a day before polling. The BJP’s message was loud and clear: Vote for our candidates; we gave you the money.
Economists point out that the average monthly income in Bihar is around ₹5,000, so ₹10,000 amounts to two months’ wages—without working.
Post-poll analyses suggest that the government believes putting money in women’s hands helps since they are seen as independent political decision-makers. The BJP seems to assume that women vote independently of men. This assertion, however, is debatable. While some women—especially those whose husbands work in cities—may indeed vote independently, it is unlikely that they ignore major issues like unemployment, migration, health, and other concerns that deeply affect Bihar’s households.
Do these women not speak to their husbands regularly over the phone, thanks to Mukesh Ambani’s affordable Jio network? The BJP hopes women will once again support Nitish Kumar, as they did when he imposed prohibition and empowered them to restrain their errant men. But much has changed since then.
The BJP, expecting a bounce in its fortunes, seems to ignore a historical lesson—when voter turnout increases, incumbents often lose.
This time, the Congress Party has added a new twist, alleging that the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voters, launched suspiciously close to the polls, was an attempt to manipulate the voter list. They claim—backed by purported evidence—that the BJP maintains an “army of voters” who move from state to state casting ballots for the party.
Lawyer and MP Kapil Sibal even alleged that special trains were running from Haryana to Bihar, ferrying thousands of such voters. He received no satisfactory response to this serious charge.
It will be interesting to see how these factors play out, despite the fact that nine surveys predict an easy win for the NDA. Only one suggests a neck-and-neck fight, with Tejashwi Yadav emerging as the most popular leader in the state. Representing the youth, Tejashwi embodies their desire for change. He has warned that if there is any foul play in the results, his party will not tolerate it. Another RJD MLA has even cautioned that violence could erupt if their supporters believe their votes have been stolen.
Anticipating such unrest, the BJP government has reportedly deployed a large number of IAS officers from Gujarat and stationed 108 battalions to maintain order.
What will happen in Bihar tomorrow? Only time will tell.
(Cover Photo Credit: PIB)
Amit ShahAssembly ElectionBiharBJPElectionIndiaIndian National CongressKapil SibalLalu Prasad yadavNarendra ModiNational Democratic AllianceNDANitish KumarPoliticsrahul gandhiRJDSIRSpecial Intensive RevisionTejashwi YadavVoterswomen